Forex Report: US Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Tensions, USD/CAD Declines 0.21%

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Forex Report: US Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Tensions, USD/CAD Declines 0.21%

📰 Forex and Global Market News

**Market Overview:**
Today’s forex market saw mixed movements as the US Dollar (USD) faced downward pressure amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding a potential government shutdown. The DXY index settled at 98.90, down 0.0030%. The broader market sentiment was influenced by geopolitical events and economic data releases, particularly in relation to the US-China trade dynamics.

**Key News Items:**
The Euro (EUR) showed signs of recovery, with EUR/USD nudging back above 1.1600 as risk sentiment improved slightly. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) regained some ground, lifting above 0.6500 after a turbulent previous session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) stabilized against the USD, trading just below the 152.00 mark as markets adjusted to Japan’s new economic leadership. Gold prices continued to decline, flirting with the $4,000 threshold, pressured by expectations of an upcoming US inflation report. In commodities, WTI crude oil prices gained traction following a surprise draw in US inventories, supporting a modest recovery.

**Closing:**
Overall, the forex market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic indicators, with traders closely monitoring the evolving US-China trade situation and domestic economic data. The DXY’s slight decline reflects these uncertainties as investors reassess their positions.

📅 Economic Calendar Events Today

All times are in US Eastern Time (ET)

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-10-22 02:00 🇬🇧 High CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.8% 4.0%
2025-10-22 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%
2025-10-22 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium CPIH (YoY) 4.1%
2025-10-22 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% 0.3%
2025-10-22 07:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
2025-10-22 08:25 🇪🇺 Medium ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2025-10-22 10:30 🇺🇸 High Crude Oil Inventories -0.961M 2.200M
2025-10-22 10:30 🇺🇸 Medium Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.770M
2025-10-22 11:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
2025-10-22 13:00 🇺🇸 Medium 20-Year Bond Auction 4.506%
2025-10-22 16:00 🇬🇧 Medium BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
2025-10-22 16:00 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks

**Overview:**
Today’s economic calendar features several high-impact events, particularly focused on the UK and the US. Key data releases include UK inflation figures and US crude oil inventories, with potential implications for GBP and USD pairs.

**Key Releases:**
1. **UK CPI (YoY)**: Actual 3.8% vs. Forecast 4.0% – A notable miss, suggesting easing inflationary pressures which could influence Bank of England’s policy outlook.
2. **UK PPI Input (MoM)**: Actual -0.1% vs. Forecast 0.3% – This unexpected decline further indicates weakening inflation dynamics, likely to impact GBP negatively.
3. **US Crude Oil Inventories**: Actual -0.961M vs. Forecast 2.200M – A significant drawdown, indicating tighter supply conditions which could support USD and oil-related currencies.

**FX Impact:**
The GBP is likely to weaken against major currencies, particularly the USD and EUR, due to disappointing inflation data. Traders may look to short GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Conversely, the USD may strengthen on the back of the crude oil inventory draw, potentially bolstering USD/CAD and other oil-related pairs. Market participants will be closely monitoring comments from ECB officials, as any hawkish signals could also influence EUR pairs.

💱 Major Currency Pairs

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1616 +0.1034 -0.7146 +0.1183 -1.0305 -1.3442 +2.1465 +11.63 +7.3783 1.1692 1.1657 1.1260 37.02 -0.0022
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 151.91 -0.0165 +1.1897 +0.1153 +2.5733 +3.7971 +6.3179 -3.2415 +0.8639 148.68 147.43 148.01 70.93 0.8759
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3355 -0.0972 -0.6735 +0.2506 -0.8151 -1.6538 +0.2159 +6.4220 +2.8656 1.3472 1.3489 1.3200 38.38 -0.0027
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.7954 -0.1381 +0.4509 -0.7648 -0.1042 +0.4233 -4.0230 -11.94 -8.0898 0.7991 0.8021 0.8353 47.96 -0.0008
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6493 0.0000 +0.1636 +0.0262 -1.4616 -1.6808 +1.3979 +4.3891 -2.4063 0.6554 0.6538 0.6430 29.88 -0.0022
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3992 -0.2068 -0.3845 -0.3774 +1.5237 +2.8710 +0.9670 -2.4934 +1.1458 1.3877 1.3784 1.3969 59.67 0.0049
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5742 -0.0174 +0.2616 +0.4724 -1.8681 -5.0566 -4.1080 +1.8137 -4.6702 0.5848 0.5925 0.5851 28.07 -0.0038
EUR/USD - Euro / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/JPY - U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen Chart
GBP/USD - British Pound / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/CHF - U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc Chart
AUD/USD - Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/CAD - U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar Chart
NZD/USD - New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar Chart

**Overview:**
The current trend in the Majors FX group indicates a mixed sentiment. While the USD shows strength against several currencies, some pairs are exhibiting bearish signals, particularly those with lower RSI readings.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/JPY**: Currently priced at 151.9060, this pair is near overbought territory with an RSI of 70.93 and a positive MACD of 0.8759, indicating strong bullish momentum. Traders should watch for potential resistance near 152.00.

2. **AUD/USD**: Priced at 0.6493, this pair is in oversold territory with an RSI of 29.88 and a negative MACD of -0.0022, suggesting bearish momentum. A critical support level to monitor is around 0.6450.

3. **GBP/USD**: At 1.3355, this pair shows an RSI of 38.38 and a negative MACD of -0.0027, indicating bearish sentiment. Watch for support around 1.3300.

**Trading Implications:**
For USD/JPY, traders may consider buying on dips as bullish momentum persists. Conversely, for AUD/USD and GBP/USD, traders should be cautious, as both pairs are

🔀 Cross Currency Pairs

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8692 +0.1729 -0.1057 -0.1998 -0.2811 +0.2549 +1.8693 +4.8252 +4.3382 0.8678 0.8641 0.8527 46.87 0.0000
EUR/JPY EURJPY 176.38 +0.0777 +0.4248 +0.1897 +1.4752 +2.3639 +8.5638 +7.9505 +8.2992 173.82 171.84 166.53 72.51 0.6880
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9238 -0.0216 -0.2753 -0.6517 -1.1408 -0.9436 -1.9685 -1.7129 -1.3097 0.9342 0.9349 0.9384 16.84 -0.0027
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7883 +0.0783 -0.9071 +0.0599 +0.4003 +0.2860 +0.6665 +6.8790 +10.01 1.7840 1.7830 1.7503 57.39 0.0026
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 202.87 -0.1142 +0.5113 +0.3731 +1.7438 +2.0986 +6.5538 +2.9802 +3.7787 200.27 198.84 195.25 67.36 0.7795
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0620 -0.2630 -0.2423 -0.5255 -0.9051 -1.2626 -3.8340 -6.2955 -5.4790 1.0764 1.0819 1.1009 26.11 -0.0032
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 98.58 -0.0406 +1.3072 +0.0883 +1.0289 +2.0497 +7.8060 +0.9803 -1.5949 97.42 96.37 95.14 57.13 0.2395
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1292 -0.1150 -0.2368 -0.6161 +0.2762 +3.4540 +5.6492 +2.4037 +2.2354 1.1206 1.1035 1.0990 41.61 0.0035
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 190.89 +0.0939 +0.7004 +0.8523 +2.6418 +3.3361 +10.74 +9.8380 +9.7571 186.04 183.79 177.47 86.46 1.2793
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 87.17 -0.0573 +1.4206 +0.5711 +0.6210 -1.4861 +1.9138 -1.5273 -3.8866 86.92 87.31 86.55 62.22 -0.0692
Cross Pairs Performance

**Overview:**
The Crosses FX group exhibits mixed signals, with a general bullish sentiment in select pairs, particularly those with strong RSI and MACD readings. However, some pairs are showing signs of potential weakness.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **EUR/JPY**: Currently priced at 176.3760, it has an RSI of 72.51, indicating overbought conditions, and a positive MACD of 0.6880, suggesting bullish momentum.
2. **CHF/JPY**: Priced at 190.8940, it shows an RSI of 86.46, also indicating overbought status, with a strong MACD of 1.2793, reinforcing bullish momentum.
3. **EUR/CHF**: Priced at 0.9238, it has an RSI of 16.84, indicating oversold conditions and a negative MACD of -0.0027, suggesting bearish momentum.

**Trading Implications:**
For EUR/JPY and CHF/

🌍 Exotic and Emerging Market Currencies

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.95 -0.0136 +0.1313 +0.3159 +1.3123 +3.7087 +9.2055 +18.82 +22.50 41.38 40.71 39.03 96.93 0.1679
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.40 +0.1168 +0.3942 +0.1055 +0.4890 -0.6162 -7.1763 -7.2534 -1.1131 17.43 17.61 18.00 58.75 -0.0234
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.72 -0.2439 +0.6769 +0.3681 +2.6349 +1.7729 -2.0066 -4.1565 -2.3575 32.27 32.38 33.00 61.54 0.1336
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.3863 -0.3789 -0.3115 -1.6261 -0.3060 -1.2396 -2.4009 -14.85 -11.10 9.4370 9.5060 9.8608 51.55 0.0039
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 10.01 -0.4206 -0.4315 -1.3932 +0.9426 -0.8175 -3.8766 -11.59 -8.5272 10.02 10.07 10.41 59.63 0.0209
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.4312 -0.0870 +0.7488 -0.0805 +1.1402 +1.4609 -2.0472 -10.26 -6.7261 6.3849 6.4029 6.6403 63.79 0.0131
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.42 -0.0911 -0.0749 -0.4749 -0.0201 -0.6484 -6.0383 -10.74 -7.7367 18.52 18.66 19.38 52.30 -0.0201
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6424 -0.2465 +0.3778 -0.7983 +0.3112 +0.9875 -2.9643 -11.31 -8.7732 3.6385 3.6511 3.7692 54.47 0.0030
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 334.88 -0.1282 +0.5422 -0.7272 +0.7212 -1.0089 -6.1827 -15.22 -9.7285 335.24 339.57 355.91 59.62 0.0679
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.90 -0.1600 +0.7873 -0.2162 +1.0646 +0.1879 -4.6689 -13.47 -10.44 20.83 21.02 22.04 62.14 0.0227
Exotic Pairs Performance

**Overview:** The Exotics FX group is currently exhibiting mixed signals, with a general bearish undertone observed across most pairs. However, USD/TRY stands out due to extreme overbought conditions.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/TRY:** Price at 41.9513, RSI at 96.93 indicates extreme overbought conditions, suggesting a potential reversal. MACD at 0.1679 signals bullish momentum but caution is advised due to overbought RSI.
2. **USD/ZAR:** Price at 17.4038, RSI at 58.75 is neutral-bullish, while MACD at -0.0234 indicates waning bearish momentum, suggesting a possible upward shift.
3. **USD/DKK:** Price at 6.4312, RSI at 63.79 shows bullish momentum, supported by MACD at 0.0131, indicating potential for further gains.

**Trading Implications:** Watch for resistance at 42.00 for USD/TRY, while

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