The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain its current cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%, as announced in its September 2024 monetary policy meeting. Inflation remains a significant concern, persisting above the 2-3% target range, with underlying inflation measured at 3.9% for the year ending in June. This level is in line with previous forecasts, although inflation is expected to decline temporarily due to cost-of-living relief measures. However, inflation is not expected to sustainably return to the target range until 2026.
The economic outlook remains uncertain. Recent GDP data indicate weak growth, primarily due to lower disposable incomes and tighter financial conditions affecting consumer spending. While wage pressures have eased, labor productivity remains low, contributing to inflationary persistence. The Board emphasizes its commitment to bringing inflation down to target and will keep monetary policy sufficiently restrictive to achieve this goal, closely monitoring domestic and international developments (Reserve Bank of Australia).
