Exotic Pairs Spotlight: USD/TRY Surge and Implications of Crude Oil Inventory on Forex Market
· Forex · QuoteReporter
Exotic Pairs Spotlight: USD/TRY Surge and Implications of Crude Oil Inventory on Forex Market
Published: December 29, 2025
Market Overview
Recent macroeconomic developments have influenced currency markets as investors react to changing monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has signaled a potential tightening, strengthening the Japanese Yen against the Euro, as the EUR/JPY pair fell to around 183.80. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a 14-month high against the US Dollar, buoyed by expectations of a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
In the broader landscape, the US Dollar showed signs of recovery, impacting various currency pairs. The EUR/USD drifted lower for the fourth consecutive day, hovering around 1.1770, influenced by a lack of key macroeconomic data releases. Concurrently, the British Pound traded steadily near 1.3500 against the US Dollar, reflecting market anticipation of a gradual easing cycle from the Bank of England (BoE). Overall, thin liquidity and cautious market sentiment are prevalent as traders navigate year-end trading dynamics amidst these macroeconomic and policy shifts.
Today’s Economic Events
The Crude Oil Inventories report, scheduled for 10:30 AM USD, is likely to have a significant impact on the USD, particularly against currencies like CAD (Canadian Dollar) and JPY (Japanese Yen), as they are closely linked to oil prices. A larger-than-expected draw in inventory could boost the USD due to higher oil prices, benefiting the CAD, while a smaller draw or an increase in inventories may weaken the USD and lead to increased volatility in pairs like USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Traders will be particularly focused on the actual inventory number compared to the forecast of -2.000M; any deviation from this figure could lead to sharp price movements in the affected currency pairs.
- 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories
Exotic Currency Pairs Performance
| Currency Pair | Price | Daily % | Weekly % | Monthly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNH | 7.00026 | -0.43% | -0.60% | -1.70% |
| USD/HKD | 7.77288 | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.00% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28433 | -0.38% | -0.33% | -1.34% |
| USD/THB | 31.39800 | +0.19% | -0.03% | -2.74% |
| USD/TRY | 42.93190 | +0.57% | +0.59% | +1.68% |
| USD/MXN | 17.90268 | -0.49% | -0.45% | -2.58% |
| USD/ZAR | 16.66939 | +0.00% | -0.41% | -2.75% |
Performance Charts
Best Daily Performer: USD/TRY (+0.57%)
Technical Analysis: 1. The USD/TRY pair is on an upward trend, supported by the continuous increase in daily, weekly, and monthly changes.
2. The pair is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signaling bullish momentum. Key resistance lies at the recent peak, just above the current price.
3. The short-term outlook remains bullish as long as the pair sustains above the 50-day SMA, however, investors should watch for potential pullbacks due to overbought conditions indicated by its position in the 20-day range.
Chart shown as featured image above
Normalized Performance – All Exotic Pairs (3 Months)
Disclaimer
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