Polymarket Sentiment Tracker — May 20
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Polymarket Sentiment Tracker
What does the crowd believe? The following Polymarket prediction markets reflect real-money bets on key economic and geopolitical events, offering a window into market-implied probabilities.
Generated: 2026-05-20 13:26 UTC
Monetary Policy
| Market | Yes Prob. | No Prob. | Signal | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | Yes: 15.2%(-1.7pp 24h) | No: 84.8% | Unlikely | $97K |
| Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? | Yes: 0.1%(-0.1pp 24h) | No: 99.9% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will three people dissent the June Fed decision? | Yes: 2.0%(-1.8pp 24h) | No: 98.0% | Unlikely | $973 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? | Yes: 13.0%(-6.5pp 24h) | No: 87.0% | Unlikely | $971 |
Geopolitics & Policy
| Market | Yes Prob. | No Prob. | Signal | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes: 13.5%(-0.3pp 24h) | No: 86.5% | Unlikely | $9.9M |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes: 9.8%(-0.5pp 24h) | No: 90.2% | Unlikely | $1000K |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | Yes: 0.3%(+0.1pp 24h) | No: 99.7% | Unlikely | $997K |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes: 0.2% | No: 99.8% | Unlikely | $995K |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes: 38.0% | No: 62.0% | Unlikely | $995K |
| Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes: 0.7%(-0.4pp 24h) | No: 99.3% | Unlikely | $995K |
Financial Markets
| Market | Yes Prob. | No Prob. | Signal | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? | Yes: 0.1%(-0.1pp 24h) | No: 99.9% | Unlikely | $98K |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 20? | Yes: 0.1%(-0.1pp 24h) | No: 99.9% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 21? | Yes: 0.2%(-2.1pp 24h) | No: 99.8% | Unlikely | $988 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET | Yes: 51.0% | No: 49.0% | Uncertain | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | Yes: 51.0% | No: 49.0% | Uncertain | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | Yes: 51.0% | No: 49.0% | Uncertain | $10 |
Macroeconomics
| Market | Yes Prob. | No Prob. | Signal | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes: 0.1%(-0.4pp 24h) | No: 99.9% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes: 0.4%(-0.2pp 24h) | No: 99.6% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes: 0.1%(-0.2pp 24h) | No: 99.9% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? | Yes: 99.7%(+0.1pp 24h) | No: 0.3% | High confidence | $10K |
| Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Draw at halftime? | Yes: 0.9%(-30.6pp 24h) | No: 99.1% | Unlikely | $10K |
| Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | Yes: 0.2% | No: 99.8% | Unlikely | $10K |
Market Intelligence Commentary
Polymarket data reflects real-money crowd intelligence on key macro events. Current probabilities signal mixed sentiment across monetary policy and geopolitical risk.
Probabilities are sourced directly from Polymarket's Gamma API and represent real-money market-implied odds. Markets shown have minimum $5,000 liquidity. Data is updated in real-time on Polymarket.
Disclaimer
The content on MarketsFN.com is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. All investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and should conduct independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before acting. MarketsFN.com and its authors are not liable for any losses or damages arising from your use of this information.