MarketsFN

10Y Yield Climbs to 4.49% as Curve Steepens Slightly

· Economics · MarketsFN Data Team

Fixed Income · Treasury Yields · Mid-Week Update

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bp to 4.49% Tuesday, extending its weekly gain to 9 bps as the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 35 bps, signaling persistent but modest steepening.

The 10-year yield has risen 9 bps this week to 4.49%, hovering above its 3-month (4.424%) and 1-year (4.248%) averages. It remains below its 52-week high of 4.67% but is up 30 bps YTD, reflecting a gradual upward drift in longer-term rates amid shifting Fed expectations.

The 2Y-10Y spread widened 4 bps this week to +35 bps, maintaining a positive slope but well below its 52-week high of +74 bps. A non-inverted curve historically signals modest growth expectations, though the narrow spread suggests lingering caution about long-term economic momentum.

36-month yield spread chart
Fig. 2 — 2Y–10Y Treasury spread over 36 months. Green fill = normal curve; red fill = inverted (recession warning signal). Grey shading marks NBER-defined recessions where applicable.

Markets await Friday's jobs report for June, with wage growth and payrolls data likely to sway yields. Fed speakers this week may also clarify rate-cut timing, while global bond moves could amplify domestic Treasury volatility.

Key Statistics at a Glance

EditionMid-Week Update
DateTuesday, July 07, 2026
10Y Yield4.49%
10Y Day-on-day▲ 1.0 bps
10Y Week-on-week▲ 9.0 bps
10Y YTD change+30.0 bps
10Y 3-month avg4.42%
10Y 1-year avg4.25%
10Y 52-week high4.67%
10Y 52-week low3.97%
2Y Yield4.14%
2Y–10Y Spread+0.350% (+35.0 bps)
Spread WoW▲ 4.0 bps
Spread 52-week high+0.740%
Spread 52-week low+0.270%
Curve signalPositive
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Series: DGS10, DGS2, T10Y2Y, USREC · Daily, business days only · Source: US Treasury / Federal Reserve.

Related Articles