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10Y Yield Dips to 4.55% as Curve Steepens Slightly

· Economics · MarketsFN Data Team

Fixed Income · Treasury Yields · Mid-Week Update

The 10-year Treasury yield eased 2 bps to 4.55% Tuesday, extending a modest weekly decline while the 2Y-10Y spread widened 3 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.

The 10-year yield stands at 4.55%, down 1 bp this week but up 36 bps year-to-date. It remains above both the 3-month (4.464%) and 1-year (4.254%) averages, hovering near the middle of its 52-week range (3.97%-4.67%). Recent momentum suggests consolidation after July's volatility.

The 2Y-10Y spread widened to +39 bps, up 3 bps WoW, holding firmly in positive territory. While below its 52-week high (+74 bps), the persistent steepening contrasts with 2023's inversion, historically signaling modest growth expectations rather than imminent recession risks.

36-month yield spread chart
Fig. 2 — 2Y–10Y Treasury spread over 36 months. Green fill = normal curve; red fill = inverted (recession warning signal). Grey shading marks NBER-defined recessions where applicable.

Markets await Thursday's jobless claims and Friday's flash PMIs for growth clues. Fed speakers could shift rate expectations, while technical support at 4.50% remains key. A break either way may set the tone for August.

Key Statistics at a Glance

EditionMid-Week Update
DateTuesday, July 21, 2026
10Y Yield4.55%
10Y Day-on-day▼ 2.0 bps
10Y Week-on-week▼ 1.0 bps
10Y YTD change+36.0 bps
10Y 3-month avg4.46%
10Y 1-year avg4.25%
10Y 52-week high4.67%
10Y 52-week low3.97%
2Y Yield4.18%
2Y–10Y Spread+0.390% (+39.0 bps)
Spread WoW▲ 3.0 bps
Spread 52-week high+0.740%
Spread 52-week low+0.270%
Curve signalPositive
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Series: DGS10, DGS2, T10Y2Y, USREC · Daily, business days only · Source: US Treasury / Federal Reserve.

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