USD/JPY is trading at 161.75 (-0.37%) as of July 10, 2026, during the European session, after a daily range of 161.28 – 162.43. The pair's current level is near the upper end of its 52-week range of 152.45 – 162.63, indicating a sustained uptrend. The rate is above both its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, at 161.56 and 159.91 respectively, reinforcing the positive trend. The RSI(14) stands at 53.9, in neutral territory, suggesting that the uptrend is not overextended.

The Average True Range (ATR) over 14 days is 0.79, indicating moderate daily volatility. Key technical levels to watch include the pivot at 162.45, with resistance at R1: 162.65 and support at S1: 162.34. Given the current price action, a break above the R1 level could signal further upside potential, while a drop below S1 may indicate a short-term correction.

The market may be underpricing the potential for USD/JPY to test the upper end of its 52-week range. A forward catalyst to confirm or invalidate this view is the upcoming US inflation data release, which could impact USD strength and, consequently, the USD/JPY rate. If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, it could boost the USD, pushing USD/JPY towards new highs, while a softer inflation reading could lead to a decline.