USD/TRY is trading at 47.4130 (+0.24%), pressing against its all-time high of 47.3813 as the lira’s structural weakness persists. The pair is firmly in an uptrend, trading above both the 20-day SMA (47.0363) and 50-day SMA (46.4973), with the ascending dynamic channels confirming bullish momentum. The nearest dynamic support sits at 47.0431 (20-day ascending trendline, 3698.7 pips below), while resistance looms at 47.4925 (20-day ascending trendline, just 795.4 pips above). Static levels show immediate support at S1 (47.0704, 3426 pips below) and resistance at R1 (47.4611, 481 pips above) — a break above R1 would likely trigger a test of the dynamic resistance trendline.

The RSI at 77.0 flags extreme overbought conditions, but in Turkey’s high-inflation environment, such readings have historically failed to curb USD/TRY’s rallies. With the 20-day ATR at 0.2349, today’s range (47.2413–47.4025) aligns with typical volatility, though the pair is testing the upper bound. Short-term, the lira remains vulnerable to further depreciation as real rates stay deeply negative and the CBRT’s credibility erodes. A close above the 20-day dynamic resistance (47.4925) would signal acceleration toward 48.00, while failure to hold above the pivot (47.2333) could trigger profit-taking. Watch tomorrow’s inflation expectations survey — any upward revision would likely fuel another leg higher.