Carnival Corp., founded in 1972 and headquartered in Miami, FL, is a leading global cruise company. It operates through multiple segments including North America and Australia (NAA) Cruise, featuring brands like Carnival Cruise Line and Princess Cruises; Europe and Asia (EA) Cruise Operations with brands such as AIDA and Costa; Cruise Support, and a Tour and Other segment that manages hotel and transportation services in Alaska.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) recently reported its Q3 earnings, surpassing sales expectations and achieving record earnings that beat market forecasts. Despite these strong results, Carnival’s stock experienced a decline, which Barrons.com described as a “harsh reaction.” This could be attributed to broader market sentiments or possibly profit-taking by investors after the initial surge in share price following the earnings announcement. Additionally, Carnival has raised its annual profit forecast, reflecting strong ongoing demand for cruises, a positive indicator for future financial performance.
These developments are significant for the stock as they demonstrate Carnival’s resilience and potential for growth, despite the volatile market conditions. The company’s ability to exceed financial expectations and raise profit forecasts could attract more investors looking for robust earnings growth. However, the stock’s drop post-earnings suggests that there might be external factors or market dynamics that could be influencing investor sentiment negatively, despite the strong earnings report. This juxtaposition of strong performance and stock price volatility needs careful consideration by investors.
The price metrics reveal a bearish near-term outlook for the asset. The current price of $29.5, reflecting a significant drop of 3.48% today, is close to the week’s low of $29.45 and well below the week’s high of $32.49. This suggests a downward pressure in the short term.
The asset is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (MA20 and MA50), with percentage differences of -5.19% and -3.24%, respectively, indicating a bearish trend in the short to medium term. However, the price is still substantially above the 200-day moving average by 17.0%, which could suggest underlying long-term strength.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.08 points towards a slightly oversold condition, which might typically signal a potential for price stabilization or a rebound if other factors align. However, the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) value of -0.09 further supports the bearish sentiment, indicating that the downward momentum is currently strong.
Considering the asset’s substantial rise from its 52-week low (95.75% increase), the current pullback could be part of a normal market correction. The proximity to the 52-week high and the YTD high, with both showing a similar percentage decrease of about -10.06%, suggests that the asset might be struggling to breach these upper resistance levels.
Overall, the analysis points towards a cautious approach, watching for potential stabilization signs or further declines based on short-term market dynamics and sentiment.
## Price Chart
Carnival Corporation & plc reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with net income rising to $1.9 billion, marking a 6.6% increase from the previous year. Adjusted net income improved by 13.2% to $2.0 billion. The company experienced a 5.6% increase in diluted EPS to $1.33, and adjusted EPS grew by 12.6% to $1.43. Revenue also grew by 3.3% year-over-year to $8.2 billion, continuing a trend with the tenth consecutive quarter of growth.
Operational efficiency was highlighted by a 4.6% growth in net yields and a 6.4% increase in gross margin yields. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $3.0 billion from $2.8 billion in the prior year. Carnival successfully managed its debt, refinancing $4.5 billion and prepaying $0.7 billion, improving the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to 3.6x.
Bookings and customer deposits were strong, with deposits reaching a record $7.1 billion. The company introduced new destinations, including Celebration Key, which received positive feedback.
For the full year 2025, Carnival raised its adjusted net income guidance, expecting a nearly 55% increase from 2024, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $7.05 billion, up 15%. Fourth quarter expectations include a 4.3% growth in net yields and a more than 60% increase in adjusted net income compared to Q4 2024. No new dividends or share repurchase programs were announced.
## Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-09-29 | 1.32 | 1.43 | 8.33 |
| 1 | 2025-06-24 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 44.03 |
| 2 | 2025-03-21 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 550.00 |
| 3 | 2024-12-20 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 84.21 |
| 4 | 2024-09-30 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 9.28 |
| 5 | 2024-06-25 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 765.46 |
| 6 | 2024-03-27 | -0.18 | -0.14 | 20.69 |
| 7 | 2023-12-21 | -0.13 | -0.07 | 46.15 |
Analyzing the EPS trends from the provided data over the last eight quarters reveals some notable patterns and insights. Initially, the company experienced negative EPS estimates in late 2023 and early 2024, with actual EPS figures also being negative but consistently outperforming estimates. Specifically, the company managed to reduce its losses more than expected, as evidenced by the surprise percentages of 46.15% and 20.69% in December 2023 and March 2024, respectively.
A significant turnaround is observed from June 2024 onwards. The company not only reversed its negative EPS but also started reporting positive earnings, surpassing the analysts’ expectations by a wide margin. The surprise percentage spiked dramatically to 765.46% in June 2024, indicating a substantial positive shift in performance. This trend of positive earnings continued, with the company consistently beating EPS estimates by significant margins, highlighted by the 550.00% surprise in March 2025.
The last quarter reported in September 2025 shows a healthy EPS of 1.43 against an estimate of 1.32, with a surprise percentage of 8.33%. This indicates that while the company continues to outperform expectations, the margin by which it exceeds estimates has normalized compared to the extraordinary figures seen in earlier quarters of 2024 and 2025.
Overall, the data reflects a robust recovery and a return to profitability, with the company not only addressing its initial losses but also establishing a pattern of strong and improving financial performance.
## Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2020-02-20 | 0.5 |
| 2019-11-21 | 0.5 |
| 2019-08-22 | 0.5 |
| 2019-05-23 | 0.5 |
| 2019-02-21 | 0.5 |
| 2018-11-21 | 0.5 |
| 2018-08-23 | 0.5 |
| 2018-05-24 | 0.5 |
The examination of the dividend trends from the provided data reveals a consistent dividend payout over the observed period, spanning from May 2018 to February 2020. The company has maintained a steady dividend of $0.5 per share for each quarter throughout these dates. This stability in dividend payments suggests a robust financial strategy, possibly aimed at maintaining investor confidence and providing a reliable income stream to shareholders.
The uniformity in dividend distribution across these quarters indicates no fluctuations in the company’s dividend policy, which could be interpreted as a sign of financial health and operational stability. Such consistency is often appreciated by investors, particularly those seeking predictable returns in the form of dividends. This trend could also reflect the company’s commitment to a particular dividend policy, which it appears to have adhered to without deviation during the period under review.
The most recent analyst ratings for Outer have shown a positive trend with three firms providing optimistic outlooks and one maintaining a neutral stance.
1. **TD Cowen – Initiated (July 22, 2025):** TD Cowen initiated coverage on Outer with a “Buy” rating and set a target price of $36. This initiation suggests a bullish outlook from TD Cowen, indicating a strong confidence in Outer’s market position and future growth prospects.
2. **Citigroup – Reiterated (July 16, 2025):** Citigroup reiterated its “Buy” rating on Outer, raising the target price from $30 to $37. This adjustment reflects an increased optimism about the company’s performance and future earnings potential. The revision in the target price, a substantial increase of $7, underscores Citigroup’s revised expectations for stronger financial health or market performance.
3. **HSBC Securities – Upgrade (May 16, 2025):** HSBC Securities upgraded Outer from “Reduce” to “Hold” with a target price set at $24. This upgrade indicates a shift in HSBC’s outlook from bearish to a more neutral stance, suggesting that the perceived risks associated with Outer’s previous performance may have been mitigated or that the company’s fundamentals have shown improvement.
4. **Northcoast – Initiated (April 25, 2025):** Northcoast initiated coverage on Outer with a “Neutral” rating, although a specific target price was not disclosed. This neutral stance implies a cautious optimism, possibly reflecting an acknowledgment of the company’s stable performance but recognizing existing market uncertainties or competitive pressures that could cap significant upside.
Overall, these recent ratings suggest a generally positive sentiment towards Outer, with significant upgrades and target price adjustments indicating improved confidence in the company’s operational and financial outlook. The absence of any downgrades in this period further reinforces the positive trend in analyst expectations.
The current price of the stock is $29.50. Analyzing the recent ratings from various analysts, there is a general positive outlook. TD Cowen initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a target price of $36. Citigroup reiterated their “Buy” rating, raising their target from $30 to $37, indicating a bullish outlook on the stock. HSBC Securities upgraded their rating from “Reduce” to “Hold” and set a target price at $24, which is below the current market price but shows an improvement in their outlook. Northcoast has initiated coverage with a “Neutral” stance, not specifying a target price.
The average target price from the analysts who provided specific figures is $32.33, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 9.6% from the current market price. This consensus gives a generally positive signal to the market, indicating expected growth or stability in the stock’s future performance.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By acting, you accept full responsibility for your choices.
