Forex Report: DXY corrects amid political shakeup, BoJ CPI misses expectations, NZD/USD declines

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# Forex Report: DXY corrects amid political shakeup, BoJ CPI misses expectations, NZD/USD declines sharply

DXY_candlestick_1m_20250826_0840 Chart

## Forex and Global News
In a turbulent day for the forex market, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) saw a slight correction to 98.30, influenced by President Trump’s announcement to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which raised concerns about the Fed’s independence. This uncertainty led to a rise in gold prices, with XAU/USD climbing to near $3,375 as investors sought safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Trump’s threats of a 200% tariff on Chinese magnets further pressured the Australian Dollar (AUD), which depreciated against the USD for the second consecutive session.

European markets opened lower amid political instability in France, with the CAC 40 index dropping 2% due to a no-confidence vote over budget disputes, contributing to a bearish sentiment across the eurozone. The GBP and JPY remained relatively stable, absorbing global developments without significant movement. Overall, market sentiment reflects heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding U.S.-China relations and domestic U.S. monetary policy.

DXY price: 98.43, daily change: 0.0224%.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-08-26 01:00 🇯🇵 Medium BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.0% 2.4%
2025-08-26 08:30 🇺🇸 Medium Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%
2025-08-26 08:30 🇺🇸 High Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) -9.4%
2025-08-26 09:00 🇺🇸 Medium S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jun) 2.1%
2025-08-26 09:00 🇺🇸 Medium S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jun)
2025-08-26 10:00 🇺🇸 High CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) 96.4
2025-08-26 11:30 🇺🇸 Medium Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.3%
2025-08-26 12:00 🇬🇧 Medium BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
2025-08-26 13:00 🇺🇸 Medium 2-Year Note Auction
2025-08-26 14:30 🇨🇦 Medium BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
2025-08-26 16:30 🇺🇸 Medium API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
2025-08-26 21:30 🇦🇺 Medium Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0%

On August 26, 2025, several key economic events are poised to impact foreign exchange markets.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) reported a Core CPI (YoY) of 2.0%, falling short of the anticipated 2.4%. This unexpected decline may weaken the Japanese yen (JPY), as it suggests reduced inflationary pressure, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

In the U.S., the Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for July are projected to show a significant contraction of -9.4%, which could indicate weakening manufacturing activity. This data, alongside the Core Durable Goods Orders forecast of 0.2%, will be critical for assessing the overall economic health and may lead to a bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar (USD) if the results align with expectations.

Additionally, the CB Consumer Confidence index for August is forecasted at 96.4, which, if met, could provide a modest boost to the USD by reflecting consumer sentiment stability.

Market participants will also be attentive to comments from Bank of England MPC member Mann and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, as their insights may offer clues on future monetary policy directions, impacting the GBP and CAD respectively.

Overall, today’s data releases and speeches are likely to create volatility in the JPY, USD, GBP, and CAD currencies.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1620 -0.0344 -0.2725 -0.4143 -1.1580 2.4954 10.79 11.66 3.8619 1.1654 1.1485 1.1005 53.05 0.0007
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 147.53 -0.1320 0.1439 -0.2610 0.3571 2.3256 -0.8788 -6.0289 2.4514 146.81 145.52 149.17 49.81 0.1654
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3467 0.0743 0.0046 -0.3051 -0.3186 -0.3428 6.1873 7.3145 1.9250 1.3496 1.3416 1.3021 62.48 0.0008
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.8066 0.0869 0.3059 -0.1003 1.4757 -2.4974 -9.8066 -10.6993 -4.8057 0.8032 0.8149 0.8550 49.57 0.0006
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6480 -0.0925 0.6821 -0.2279 -1.7762 0.5100 2.6814 4.1801 -4.5347 0.6516 0.6458 0.6387 51.03 -0.0014
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3859 0.0217 -0.0995 0.4123 1.6011 0.3548 -3.3273 -3.4203 2.5985 1.3725 1.3786 1.4036 61.76 0.0039
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5842 -0.1879 0.2370 -1.3806 -3.2319 -1.7838 2.4932 3.5868 -6.1389 0.5974 0.5950 0.5834 40.95 -0.0034

EUR_USD_-_Euro___U.S._Dollar_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

USD_JPY_-_U.S._Dollar___Japanese_Yen_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

GBP_USD_-_British_Pound___U.S._Dollar_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

USD_CHF_-_U.S._Dollar___Swiss_Franc_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

AUD_USD_-_Australian_Dollar___U.S._Dollar_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

USD_CAD_-_U.S._Dollar___Canadian_Dollar_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

NZD_USD_-_New_Zealand_Dollar___U.S._Dollar_candlestick_20250826_0840 Chart

In the current forex landscape, several key currency pairs exhibit notable conditions based on RSI, MACD, and moving averages. The EUR/USD remains neutral with an RSI of 53.05 and a MACD close to zero, suggesting consolidation without overbought or oversold pressures. Conversely, the GBP/USD, with an RSI of 62.48, is approaching overbought territory, indicating potential upward momentum but caution is warranted as it nears resistance levels.

The USD/CAD also shows bullish sentiment with an RSI of 61.76, while the USD/JPY remains stable, reflecting a balanced market with an RSI of 49.81. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD present bearish signals, particularly the latter with an RSI of 40.95 and a negative MACD, suggesting oversold conditions that could attract buyers looking for value. Overall, traders should monitor these indicators closely for potential reversals or continuation patterns in these pairs.

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8627 -0.1042 -0.2982 -0.1216 -0.8619 2.8383 4.3155 4.0413 1.8873 0.8633 0.8558 0.8446 39.66 0.0002
EUR/JPY EURJPY 171.39 -0.1532 -0.1491 -0.6901 -0.8188 4.8628 9.7941 4.9007 6.3905 171.07 167.12 163.96 54.76 0.2981
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9370 0.0534 0.0171 -0.5350 0.2772 -0.0864 -0.1077 -0.3085 -1.1541 0.9359 0.9356 0.9387 54.65 0.0013
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7935 0.0670 -0.9258 -0.1637 0.6295 2.0008 7.9154 7.1898 8.8190 1.7884 1.7782 1.7226 53.81 0.0050
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 198.66 -0.0568 0.1553 -0.5716 0.0363 1.9716 5.2548 0.8426 4.4216 198.09 195.22 194.05 68.26 0.3411
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0861 0.1475 0.3224 -0.4090 1.1474 -2.8368 -4.2324 -4.1691 -2.9783 1.0838 1.0930 1.1114 65.31 0.0014
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 95.56 -0.2141 0.7963 -0.5195 -1.4306 2.8189 1.7548 -2.1091 -2.2203 95.64 93.96 95.22 50.82 -0.0986
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1089 0.0812 0.4247 1.1456 1.5049 2.3140 0.1644 0.5627 1.6877 1.0906 1.0853 1.0949 71.37 0.0039
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 182.90 -0.2062 -0.1568 -0.1538 -1.0900 4.9576 9.9127 5.2366 7.6314 182.76 178.60 174.66 50.56 0.0700
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 86.17 -0.3031 0.3774 -1.6449 -2.8864 0.4969 1.5953 -2.6648 -3.8466 87.68 86.57 86.96 38.48 -0.3938

crosses_normalized_3m_20250826_0840 Chart

Currently, the forex landscape presents several noteworthy overbought and oversold conditions. The AUD/NZD pair, with an RSI of 71.37, indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a corrective pullback. Conversely, the NZD/JPY is oversold with an RSI of 38.48, and a bearish MACD, indicating potential for a rebound. The GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF pairs are approaching overbought territory, with RSIs of 68.26 and 65.31, respectively, which may signal weakening momentum. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP remains neutral with an RSI of 39.66, suggesting limited immediate volatility. Traders should monitor these indicators closely for potential trading opportunities.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.03 0.0624 0.2830 0.3535 1.2128 5.0387 12.53 16.21 20.59 40.34 39.53 37.69 79.14 0.1902
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.64 0.1828 -0.1432 0.1064 0.1715 -1.6915 -3.9363 -5.9771 -0.5468 17.76 18.04 18.17 40.30 -0.0554
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.43 -0.0924 -0.3993 -0.2461 0.4647 -0.8257 -3.8826 -5.0060 -4.4772 32.48 32.80 33.43 53.58 0.0086
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.6112 0.2252 0.2743 0.5546 0.8873 -0.0759 -9.6488 -12.8143 -5.7661 9.5809 9.6251 10.19 45.79 -0.0063
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 10.19 0.6103 -0.4339 -0.1490 0.6696 0.3666 -8.6534 -10.0676 -2.6573 10.15 10.24 10.66 45.81 0.0006
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.4240 0.0202 0.2810 0.4301 1.1749 -2.3303 -9.6491 -10.3645 -3.6665 6.4037 6.4996 6.7944 47.24 -0.0037
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.67 -0.0621 -0.5243 -0.5073 0.7107 -3.0250 -8.4556 -9.5089 -2.8209 18.75 19.15 19.76 46.93 -0.0158
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6714 0.1801 0.7483 0.9048 1.5208 -1.9310 -6.8700 -10.6078 -3.7040 3.6510 3.7083 3.8626 45.62 -0.0030
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 342.16 0.2012 1.2059 1.2104 1.2517 -3.8930 -10.1022 -13.3790 -2.6793 341.88 349.54 367.98 47.33 -1.0426
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 21.13 0.0583 0.5947 0.8271 1.2863 -3.7715 -11.0189 -12.5479 -5.5429 21.11 21.57 22.70 46.74 -0.0349

exotics_normalized_3m_20250826_0840 Chart

In the current analysis of key FX pairs, USD/TRY is exhibiting overbought conditions with an RSI of 79.14, indicating potential price corrections may be imminent. The positive MACD at 0.1902 supports bullish momentum, yet the stark divergence from moving averages suggests caution. Conversely, USD/ZAR shows bearish characteristics with an RSI of 40.30 and a negative MACD of -0.0554, indicating potential oversold conditions. The remaining pairs, including USD/THB, USD/SEK, and USD/NOK, are positioned within neutral ranges, reflecting stability but lack of strong directional bias. Traders should monitor USD/TRY for reversal signals while considering USD/ZAR for potential buying opportunities.