Forex Update: Central Bank Speeches Ignite Market, NZD/USD Declines 0.59%

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Forex Update: Central Bank Speeches Ignite Market, NZD/USD Declines 0.59%

📰 Forex and Global Market News

**Market Overview:**
Today’s forex market reflects a mixed sentiment, driven primarily by central bank expectations and geopolitical developments. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 98.80, up 0.0881%, as the greenback gains traction against major currencies amid easing Sino-US trade tensions.

**Key Currency Movements:**
The Euro (EUR) remains stable, while the British Pound (GBP) continues to weaken against the USD, sliding to around 1.3370. This decline is attributed to the anticipation of a potential trade deal between the US and China, which has bolstered the USD’s appeal. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is under pressure following the announcement of Japan’s new cabinet, signaling continuity in policy. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen a boost from a significant $8.5 billion minerals deal with the US, positively impacting critical metals stocks.

**Economic Data and Central Bank Insights:**
Investors are awaiting Canada’s CPI data, expected to show rising inflation, which may influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) future rate decisions. In the commodities space, gold prices have dipped below $4,300 amid a stronger USD, reflecting a lack of follow-through selling despite ongoing market uncertainty.

**Closing:**
Overall, the forex market is navigating through a complex landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, with the DXY maintaining its upward momentum as traders assess the implications for future monetary policy.

📅 Economic Calendar Events Today

All times are in US Eastern Time (ET)

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-10-21 00:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba President Nagel Speaks
2025-10-21 03:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s Lane Speaks
2025-10-21 06:30 🇬🇧 Medium BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
2025-10-21 07:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2025-10-21 07:30 🇺🇸 Medium Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%
2025-10-21 07:30 🇺🇸 Medium Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) 0.3%
2025-10-21 07:30 🇺🇸 Medium US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%
2025-10-21 08:30 🇨🇦 Medium Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
2025-10-21 08:30 🇨🇦 Medium Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
2025-10-21 08:30 🇨🇦 Medium CPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%
2025-10-21 09:00 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Waller Speaks
2025-10-21 13:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba Balz Speaks
2025-10-21 15:30 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Waller Speaks
2025-10-21 16:30 🇺🇸 Medium API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
2025-10-21 17:00 🇺🇸 Medium TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Aug)
2025-10-21 18:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba President Nagel Speaks
2025-10-21 19:50 🇯🇵 Medium Adjusted Trade Balance -0.11T
2025-10-21 19:50 🇯🇵 Medium Exports (YoY) (Sep) 4.6%
2025-10-21 19:50 🇯🇵 Medium Trade Balance (Sep) 22.0B

**Overview:**
Today’s economic calendar features several key events that could significantly impact forex markets, particularly speeches from central bank officials and critical inflation data from Canada. Traders should focus on the implications of these releases, as they may influence currency pairs.

**Key Releases:**
1. **CPI (MoM) (Sep) – CAD:** Forecasted at -0.1%. A lower-than-expected CPI could weaken the CAD, indicating potential easing by the Bank of Canada.
2. **Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) – USD:** Forecasted at 0.3%. A miss here could signal weaker consumer demand, impacting USD negatively.
3. **Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) – USD:** Expected at 0.1%. A lower actual figure may suggest economic slowdown, further pressuring the USD.
4. **Adjusted Trade Balance (Sep) – JPY:** Forecasted at -0.11T. A significant deviation could affect JPY’s strength, particularly against the USD.

**FX Impact:**
The CAD may face downward pressure if CPI data disappoints, impacting CAD pairs like USD/CAD. The USD may react negatively to weaker inventory data, affecting pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The JPY could see volatility based on trade balance results, influencing pairs like USD/JPY. Overall, traders should remain vigilant for potential market movements following these releases.

💱 Major Currency Pairs

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1627 -0.1717 -0.1659 +0.5201 -1.3914 -0.9554 +2.6455 +11.73 +6.9777 1.1693 1.1655 1.1253 37.77 -0.0022
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 151.16 +0.2866 +0.1212 -0.8377 +2.1697 +2.9785 +5.5396 -3.7186 +1.0408 148.54 147.26 148.07 59.79 0.9210
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3381 -0.1716 -0.1751 +0.3629 -1.2910 -1.0395 +0.8780 +6.6292 +2.5158 1.3474 1.3491 1.3194 44.28 -0.0027
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.7931 +0.0883 -0.4331 -1.3913 +0.0745 -0.0668 -4.4228 -12.19 -8.3047 0.7997 0.8026 0.8365 44.93 -0.0003
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6481 -0.5677 -0.4149 -0.4699 -2.0687 -1.1246 +1.8178 +4.1961 -3.5109 0.6554 0.6537 0.6428 27.86 -0.0024
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.4064 +0.2638 +0.1281 +0.1781 +1.9736 +3.3791 +1.3687 -1.9917 +1.9160 1.3867 1.3778 1.3973 70.90 0.0055
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5714 -0.5915 -0.0370 -0.0610 -3.0094 -4.7682 -4.0054 +1.3172 -5.9687 0.5852 0.5928 0.5850 30.54 -0.0043
EUR/USD - Euro / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/JPY - U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen Chart
GBP/USD - British Pound / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/CHF - U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc Chart
AUD/USD - Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar Chart
USD/CAD - U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar Chart
NZD/USD - New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar Chart

**Overview:**
The Majors FX group exhibits mixed signals today, with a general bearish sentiment in the Euro and commodity currencies, while the USD shows strength against the JPY and CAD. The overall trend suggests a cautious approach, especially in pairs with bearish momentum.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **EUR/USD:** Currently priced at 1.1627, the pair is experiencing bearish pressure with an RSI of 37.77 (neutral-bearish) and a negative MACD (-0.0022), indicating a lack of bullish momentum.
2. **USD/CAD:** Priced at 1.4064, this pair is showing strength with an RSI of 70.90 (overbought) and a positive MACD (0.0055), suggesting bullish momentum and potential for further gains.
3. **AUD/USD:** Trading at 0.6481, this pair is under significant selling pressure with an RSI of 27.86 (oversold) and a negative MACD (-0.0024), indicating a potential reversal point.

**Trading Implications:**
For EUR/USD, watch for support around 1.1600; resistance is seen at 1.1700. In USD/CAD, the overbought condition may lead

🔀 Cross Currency Pairs

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8686 0.0000 -0.0219 +0.1268 -0.1207 +0.0530 +1.7203 +4.7528 +4.3188 0.8677 0.8636 0.8523 38.86 0.0001
EUR/JPY EURJPY 175.68 +0.1117 -0.0796 -0.3585 +0.7149 +1.9582 +8.2988 +7.5239 +8.0536 173.67 171.59 166.39 58.80 0.7582
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9218 -0.0759 -0.6285 -0.9009 -1.3326 -1.0541 -1.9278 -1.9257 -1.9393 0.9350 0.9351 0.9386 15.00 -0.0021
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7938 +0.4086 +0.2392 +0.9937 +0.7006 +0.1642 +0.8070 +7.2077 +10.82 1.7839 1.7825 1.7491 54.80 0.0025
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 202.24 +0.1074 -0.0618 -0.4867 +0.8412 +1.8980 +6.4574 +2.6579 +3.5764 200.14 198.67 195.16 60.94 0.8395
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0612 -0.0847 -0.6023 -1.0287 -1.2120 -1.1062 -3.5851 -6.3661 -5.9962 1.0775 1.0828 1.1015 38.67 -0.0026
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 97.94 -0.2810 -0.3054 -1.3219 +0.0347 +1.8087 +7.4504 +0.3247 -2.4832 97.38 96.31 95.13 50.54 0.2225
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1343 +0.0353 -0.3636 -0.3986 +1.0602 +3.8391 +6.0816 +2.8662 +2.6659 1.1192 1.1024 1.0988 44.90 0.0046
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 190.57 +0.1993 +0.5678 +0.5620 +2.0857 +3.0508 +10.43 +9.6527 +10.19 185.73 183.47 177.29 69.46 1.2299
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 86.34 -0.3002 +0.0695 -0.9147 -0.9181 -1.9432 +1.3012 -2.4671 -5.0061 86.96 87.30 86.56 54.91 -0.1064
Cross Pairs Performance

**Overview:** The Crosses FX group exhibits a mixed trend, with some pairs showing bullish momentum while others are leaning bearish. The overall sentiment is cautious, as several pairs are near neutral RSI levels.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **CHF/JPY:** Currently at 190.5720, it has an RSI of 69.46, indicating it is approaching overbought territory. The MACD at 1.2299 suggests strong bullish momentum.
2. **EUR/CHF:** Priced at 0.9218, this pair is in a bearish position with an RSI of 15.00, indicating oversold conditions, and a negative MACD of -0.0021, pointing to bearish momentum.
3. **GBP/JPY:** At 202.2350, it has an RSI of 60.94, indicating bullish sentiment, supported by a positive MACD of 0.8395.

**Trading Implications:** Watch for potential resistance at 191.00 for CHF/JPY and support around

🌍 Exotic and Emerging Market Currencies

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.88 -0.0942 +0.0784 +0.1715 +1.1759 +3.5861 +9.3988 +18.63 +22.20 41.36 40.69 39.00 86.35 0.1652
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.33 +0.5735 -0.0997 +0.0431 -0.0723 -1.2712 -7.1364 -7.6584 -1.4301 17.45 17.62 18.02 56.54 -0.0285
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.75 +0.7382 +0.6763 +0.4909 +2.6968 +1.7713 -2.3845 -4.0687 -1.0275 32.27 32.38 33.02 70.15 0.1379
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.4240 +0.0871 -0.4841 -0.8787 +0.8592 -0.9412 -2.7260 -14.51 -10.43 9.4403 9.5084 9.8700 50.89 0.0098
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 10.08 +0.3635 -0.1851 -0.0883 +2.1099 +0.0745 -4.1697 -11.04 -7.7070 10.02 10.07 10.42 57.71 0.0276
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.4257 +0.2105 +0.2030 -0.4513 +1.5001 +1.0468 -2.5094 -10.34 -6.3446 6.3843 6.4051 6.6487 59.46 0.0125
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.47 +0.4175 +0.0970 +0.0796 +0.5925 -0.9168 -5.8672 -10.47 -7.0240 18.53 18.68 19.40 50.35 -0.0215
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6509 +0.4264 +0.0030 -0.8613 +1.0361 +0.8284 -3.4792 -11.11 -7.8003 3.6391 3.6529 3.7743 51.63 0.0052
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 335.00 +0.3030 -0.0468 -1.0395 +1.6670 -1.3568 -7.0461 -15.19 -9.0561 335.45 339.95 356.59 51.87 0.1813
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.92 +0.3949 +0.4706 -0.4312 +1.5680 -0.1332 -5.1415 -13.39 -9.8695 20.84 21.04 22.07 56.65 0.0212
Exotic Pairs Performance

**Overview:**
The Exotic FX group shows mixed signals, with a general bullish trend in some pairs while others remain neutral. Notably, USD/TRY is significantly overbought, indicating potential for a correction.

**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/TRY:** Price at 41.8840, RSI at 86.35 suggests extreme overbought conditions. MACD at 0.1652 indicates bullish momentum, but a pullback is likely due to overextension.
2. **USD/THB:** Price at 32.7500, RSI at 70.15 signals a near-overbought condition. MACD at 0.1379 shows bullish momentum, but caution is warranted as it approaches overbought territory.
3. **USD/ZAR:** Price at 17.3278, RSI at 56.54 is neutral-bullish. MACD at -0.0285 indicates bearish momentum, suggesting potential weakness.

**Trading Implications:**
For USD/TRY,

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