NIKE, Inc., founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip Hampson Knight in 1964 and headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon, is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through several segments including North America, EMEA, Greater China, APLA, Global Brand Divisions, and Converse, focusing on the design, development, marketing, and selling of sports-related products and services.
Nike recently reported a surprise rise in Q1 revenue, signaling a potential turnaround, which has led to a rally in its stock. Despite this positive development, the company has also predicted that tariff costs will impact its finances by approximately $1.5 billion. This forecast has caused some concern among investors and analysts, as highlighted by multiple sources including The Wall Street Journal and Reuters. The news has made Nike one of the most discussed stocks in recent financial coverage, alongside other major movers like Nvidia and Lithium Americas.
Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih commented on the macroeconomic challenges that could hinder Nike’s recovery, suggesting that the road ahead might still be tough for the company. Meanwhile, other analysts and financial news outlets have focused on Nike’s earnings beat and its ongoing efforts to navigate through tariff impacts and other market challenges. The overall market sentiment around Nike appears cautiously optimistic, as the company’s stock shows signs of recovery bolstered by strategic growth initiatives, but tempered by significant external financial pressures.
The current price of the asset is $72.04, reflecting a significant increase of 4.39% today. This upswing brings the price closer to the weekly high of $74.69, yet it remains substantially below the yearly and 52-week highs of $81.06 and $87.8, respectively. The asset’s price is significantly above its yearly and 52-week lows, both recorded at $51.67, indicating a strong recovery over the past months.
The moving averages suggest a mixed sentiment: the asset is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages by 0.15% and 3.22%, respectively, indicating recent bearish trends. However, it remains 4.08% above the 200-day moving average, suggesting longer-term bullishness.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.06 points to a neutral market momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -1.23, being negative, hints at a potential bearish crossover or downward momentum in the short term. This combination of indicators suggests cautious optimism with an eye toward potential volatility or short-term pullbacks.
## Price Chart
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results with total revenues of $11.7 billion, marking a slight increase of 1% compared to Q1 2025. Despite this nominal growth, the company experienced a 1% decline on a currency-neutral basis. NIKE Direct revenues fell by 4% to $4.5 billion, while wholesale revenues rose by 7% to $6.8 billion. A significant downturn was noted in diluted earnings per share (EPS), which decreased by 30% to $0.49, and net income also dropped by 31% to $0.7 billion.
The gross margin suffered a decrease of 320 basis points to 42.2%. NIKE’s selling and administrative expenses slightly decreased by 1% to $4.0 billion, reflecting a 3% reduction in demand creation expenses, attributed to prior higher investments in sports events. However, inventories were down by 2% to $8.1 billion, and cash reserves also decreased by about $1.7 billion from the previous year.
Despite these challenges, NIKE declared $591 million in dividends, up 6% year-over-year, and spent $123 million on share repurchases. The company remains committed to its “Win Now” strategy, focusing on recovery and systematic improvements across various business dimensions.
## Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-09-30 | 0.27 | 0.49 | 80.15 |
| 1 | 2025-06-26 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 8.53 |
| 2 | 2025-03-20 | 0.29 | 0.54 | 85.38 |
| 3 | 2024-12-19 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 23.10 |
| 4 | 2024-10-01 | 0.52 | 0.70 | 34.61 |
| 5 | 2024-06-27 | 0.83 | 1.01 | 21.18 |
| 6 | 2024-03-21 | 0.74 | 0.98 | 33.15 |
| 7 | 2023-12-21 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 21.75 |
Over the past eight quarters, the reported EPS (Earnings Per Share) consistently exceeded analyst estimates, indicating a robust performance relative to expectations. The data reveals a significant positive earnings surprise percentage in each quarter, with two particularly high spikes. In the first quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2024, the surprise percentages were exceptionally high at 85.38% and 80.15%, respectively, suggesting that the company’s earnings outperformed expectations by a substantial margin.
The trend in EPS also shows variability in the magnitude of outperformance. The lowest surprise was recorded in the second quarter of 2025 at 8.53%, which, while lower relative to other quarters, still indicates an outperformance. On average, the surprise percentage was around 38.35%, illustrating strong and consistent overachievement relative to analyst forecasts.
This pattern of recurring positive surprises could reflect the analysts’ conservative estimates or the company’s operational efficiency and ability to exceed financial projections consistently. The data points towards a positive outlook for the company’s financial health, as evidenced by its continued ability to surpass expectations across multiple reporting periods.
## Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-02 | 0.4 |
| 2025-06-02 | 0.4 |
| 2025-03-03 | 0.4 |
| 2024-12-02 | 0.4 |
| 2024-09-03 | 0.37 |
| 2024-06-03 | 0.37 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.37 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.37 |
The dividend data from the last eight quarters shows a clear trend in the company’s dividend policy. From December 2023 through September 2024, the dividend rate was consistently maintained at $0.37. This period of stability suggests a cautious approach by the company’s management, possibly reflecting a strategy to maintain a steady return to shareholders amid varying economic conditions.
Starting from December 2024, there is a noticeable increase in the dividend to $0.40, which has been sustained through to September 2025. This increment, which represents an 8.1% rise from the previous rate, indicates a shift towards a more optimistic outlook by the company, possibly due to improved financial performance or confidence in sustained earnings growth.
Overall, the data reflects a positive progression in the company’s dividend payments, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value while also possibly signaling a stable financial position and positive future expectations.
The four most recent rating changes for the stock include two upgrades, one reiteration, and another upgrade, all occurring between July and September 2025.
1. **JP Morgan on July 28, 2025**: JP Morgan upgraded the stock from “Neutral” to “Overweight” with a target price set at $93. This change indicates a positive reassessment of the stock’s future performance potential, suggesting that JP Morgan analysts see more upside than previously anticipated.
2. **TD Cowen on September 10, 2025**: TD Cowen upgraded their rating from “Hold” to “Buy,” setting the target price at $85. This upgrade reflects a shift in perception from a neutral stance to a more bullish outlook, implying that TD Cowen now expects the stock to perform well in the foreseeable future.
3. **RBC Capital Markets on September 18, 2025**: RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock from “Sector Perform” to “Outperform” with a maintained target price of $90. This upgrade suggests that RBC analysts believe the stock will outperform its sector peers, likely due to anticipated operational improvements or market conditions favoring the company.
4. **Telsey Advisory Group on September 23, 2025**: Telsey Advisory Group reiterated their “Market Perform” rating but increased their target price from $70 to $75. This reiteration with an increased target price indicates that while Telsey maintains a neutral stance on the stock’s overall performance relative to the market, they acknowledge factors that could support a slightly higher valuation.
These rating changes collectively suggest a generally positive shift in sentiment among analysts regarding the stock’s investment outlook, with three upgrades and a target price increase even within a neutral rating.
The current price of the stock stands at $72.04. Recent analyst ratings suggest a generally positive outlook, with an average target price of $85.75, derived from individual targets of $75, $90, $85, and $93 from Telsey Advisory Group, RBC Capital Markets, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan, respectively. This represents a potential upside of approximately 19% from the current price.
The upgrades by RBC Capital Markets, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan indicate an improved perception of the company’s prospects, shifting from neutral or hold positions to more bullish stances. Specifically, RBC Capital Markets’ upgrade to “Outperform” with a target price of $90, and JP Morgan’s adjustment to “Overweight” with a target price of $93, underscore a strong confidence in the company’s future performance. Telsey Advisory Group, while maintaining a “Market Perform” rating, also adjusted its target upwards, suggesting a modestly positive view.
This consensus among analysts, particularly with the recent upgrades, may reflect expectations of robust earnings, operational improvements, or strategic initiatives anticipated to drive the stock’s value in the near to mid-term.
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