Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Shares Drop 9.9% After Beating Estimates
Current Price: $288.38
-9.95%
on October 28, 2025
Royal Caribbean Group is a prominent cruise company headquartered in Miami, Florida, founded in 1968 by Arne Wilhelmsen. The company operates several renowned global cruise brands, including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. Additionally, it has a stake in TUI Cruises GmbH, which manages the German brands TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, further expanding its international presence.
📰 Recent Developments
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. reported robust third-quarter 2024 financial results, achieving record net yields and revenues of $4.16 billion, with net income reaching $646 million. The company raised its full-year 2024 earnings guidance, driven by sustained demand and higher onboard spending. Operationally, Royal Caribbean expanded its itinerary offerings, introducing new sailings from Galveston, Texas, aboard the Icon of the Seas through 2025, enhancing accessibility for North American passengers. In product updates, the company detailed progress on its upcoming Quantum Ultra-class ship, Star of the Seas, scheduled for delivery in 2025 with advanced entertainment features. Strategically, Royal Caribbean deepened its collaboration with local authorities in the Bahamas to develop sustainable infrastructure at Perfect Day at CocoCay, focusing on eco-friendly expansions. No management changes were announced during this period.
📊 Earnings Report Summary
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) reported strong Q3 2025 results, highlighting significant growth. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.74, a 36% increase from $4.21 in Q3 2024. Net income soared to $1.6 billion, up 45.7% year-over-year. Total revenues reached $5.1 billion, reflecting a 4.4% growth compared to the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $2.3 billion, while gross margin yields improved by 3.8%. The load factor also increased to 112%, with 2.5 million guests carried, a 7% rise from last year. The company expects adjusted EPS growth of approximately 32% for the full year, alongside a projected increase in net yields. Additionally, a 33% dividend increase to $1.00 per share was announced, and share repurchases of 1.3 million shares were completed. Liquidity remains strong at $6.8 billion, positioning the company well for future growth.
📈 Technical Analysis
Daily Price Change: -9.95%
Technical Indicators
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $288.58 |
| Daily Change | -9.89% |
| MA20 | $310.60 |
| MA50 | $327.28 |
| MA200 | $274.57 |
| 52W High | $365.38 |
| 52W Low | $163.05 |
| % from 52W High | -21.02% |
| % from 52W Low | 76.99% |
| YTD % | 27.19% |
| BB Position | -17.38% |
| RSI | 33.43 |
| MACD | -4.56 |
The current price of $288.58 reflects a daily decline of approximately 3.32%, a significant drop that may indicate bearish sentiment. The stock is currently 21% below its 52-week high of $365.38, yet 77% above the low of $163.05, suggesting volatility over the past year. Moving averages indicate a bearish trend, with the current price below the 20-day (MA20) at $310.60, the 50-day (MA50) at $327.28, but above the 200-day (MA200) at $274.57, which may provide support.
The RSI at 33.43 indicates the stock is nearing oversold territory, potentially signaling a reversal. The MACD of -4.56 further confirms bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands reveal the price is near the lower band at $294.26, suggesting potential for a bounce back if buying pressure increases. Overall, caution is warranted as the stock navigates through these technical indicators.
💰 Earnings History
| Earnings Date | EPS Estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise(%) | Event Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-29 | 2.54 | 2.71 | 6.57 | Earnings |
| 2025-01-28 | 1.5 | 1.63 | 8.85 | Earnings |
| 2024-10-29 | 5.03 | 5.2 | 3.37 | Earnings |
| 2024-07-25 | 2.75 | 3.21 | 16.53 | Earnings |
| 2024-04-25 | 1.33 | 1.77 | 32.89 | Earnings |
| 2024-02-01 | 1.13 | 1.25 | 10.65 | Earnings |
| 2023-10-26 | 3.46 | 3.85 | 11.18 | Earnings |
| 2023-07-27 | 1.55 | 1.82 | 17.76 | Earnings |
The earnings data reflects a positive trend in Earnings Per Share (EPS) performance, with consistent outperformance against estimates across several reporting periods. Notably, the reported EPS has exceeded estimates in six out of the seven earnings events listed, showcasing a robust ability to generate earnings beyond market expectations.
The most significant surprise occurred in April 2024, where the reported EPS of 1.77 surpassed the estimate of 1.33 by an impressive 32.89%. This trend of exceeding EPS estimates suggests strong operational efficiency and possibly improved market conditions for the company.
Additionally, the upward trajectory in reported EPS values, from 1.13 in February 2024 to 5.20 in October 2024, indicates not only a recovery but also potential growth in profitability. Overall, these trends suggest a healthy financial outlook, with the company likely gaining investor confidence as it continues to deliver strong earnings results.
💵 Dividend History
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | 1.0 |
| 2025-06-04 | 0.75 |
| 2025-03-07 | 0.75 |
| 2024-12-27 | 0.55 |
| 2024-09-20 | 0.4 |
| 2020-03-05 | 0.78 |
| 2019-12-19 | 0.78 |
| 2019-09-19 | 0.78 |
Analyzing the provided dividend data reveals notable trends that highlight the evolving financial strategies of the companies involved. The data shows a gradual increase in dividends over time, particularly from 2024 to 2025. The jump from $0.40 in September 2024 to $1.00 by September 2025 indicates a significant confidence in future profitability and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Prior to this, dividends remained relatively stable at $0.78 from late 2019 until early 2020, suggesting a period of cautious financial management, possibly influenced by economic uncertainties. The increase in dividends in 2024 could signal recovery or growth initiatives post-pandemic.
Overall, the upward trend in dividends may reflect broader market conditions, including improving corporate earnings and investor demand for yield. Companies may be recognizing the importance of dividends in attracting and retaining investors, especially in an environment where interest rates remain low.
⭐ Analyst Ratings
| Date | Status | Outer | Rating | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | Initiated | TD Cowen | Buy | $405 |
| 2025-07-21 | Downgrade | Truist | Buy → Hold | $337 |
| 2025-04-25 | Initiated | Northcoast | Buy | $279 |
| 2025-03-31 | Initiated | Jefferies | Hold | $230 |
Recent rating changes reflect a mixed sentiment among analysts regarding the stocks in question. TD Cowen’s initiation of coverage with a “Buy” rating at a price target of $405 indicates strong confidence in the stock’s potential, suggesting optimism about the company’s future performance. This is further supported by Northcoast’s initiation of a “Buy” rating at $279, indicating a positive outlook on another stock.
Conversely, Truist’s downgrade from “Buy” to “Hold” at a price target of $337 suggests a more cautious approach, potentially signaling concerns about the stock’s near-term performance or valuation. Jefferies’ initiation of a “Hold” rating at $230 further emphasizes a lack of strong conviction in that particular stock, reflecting a more conservative outlook.
Overall, while some analysts are bullish, others are adopting a more reserved stance, highlighting the variability in market sentiment and the need for investors to carefully assess these mixed signals when making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
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