# US Futures Show Mixed Signals as Government Shutdown Looms and Payrolls Decline
**Note**: This analysis is generated during US premarket, markets closed but futures trading. Event times in US Eastern Time.
## Major News
Global markets are reacting to significant developments, particularly the U.S. government shutdown, which could lead to the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and disrupt critical services. This uncertainty has contributed to a cautious sentiment in U.S. futures, with S&P 500 futures slightly up by 0.01%, while Nasdaq futures dipped by 0.005%. Dow futures gained 0.14%.
In Europe, indices showed positive momentum; the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.65%, while the DAX and CAC 40 increased by 0.91% and 0.47%, respectively, reflecting a more optimistic outlook amid the shutdown concerns. The FTSE 100 also gained 0.59%.
The ADP report indicated a surprising decline of 32,000 private payrolls in September, marking the largest drop in two and a half years, further influencing market sentiment. In the pharmaceutical sector, Pfizer’s agreement with Trump alleviated tariff concerns, boosting confidence among drugmakers, while GSK’s CEO expressed a commitment to the U.S. market.
In commodities, the ongoing dynamics in the market remain influenced by these economic factors, while the crypto market continues to show volatility amid broader economic uncertainties. Overall
## Performances
### US Futures
US futures indicate opening sign for cash market.
| Future | Price | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Futures | 6710.25 | 0.01 |
| Dow Futures | 46561.00 | 0.14 |
| Nasdaq Futures | 24776.50 | -0.01 |
### Major US Indices (Previous Close)
| Index | Price | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6687.06 | 0.46 |
| Dow Jones | 46391.43 | 0.24 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24678.75 | 0.32 |
### FX Performance
| Currency Pair | Price | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.15 |
| USD/JPY | 146.76 | -0.77 |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | 0.48 |
| USD/CHF | 0.80 | 0.13 |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | 0.04 |
| AUD/USD | 0.66 | 0.11 |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | 0.50 |
### Commodities Performance
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 61.84 | -1.07 |
| Gold | 3893.30 | 0.10 |
| Silver | 47.28 | -0.04 |
| Natural Gas | 3.37 | 0.87 |
### BTC and ETH Performance
| Crypto | Price | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 116507.96 | 2.13 |
| Ethereum | 4282.86 | 3.21 |
## High-Importance Economic Events
On October 1, 2025, several significant economic events are set to impact global markets, particularly currencies.
At 00:30 ET, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced an interest rate decision, maintaining rates at 5.50%, aligning with market expectations. This stability may support the Indian Rupee (INR) amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
In the UK, the Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) for September revealed a surprising 0.5% monthly increase, surpassing the forecast of 0.2%. This positive data could bolster the British Pound (GBP) as it suggests resilience in the housing market.
Conversely, the Eurozone’s HCOB Manufacturing PMIs showed mixed results, with Spain and Italy’s PMIs falling below expectations, while Germany’s PMI exceeded forecasts. The overall Eurozone PMI registered 49.8, slightly above the anticipated 49.5, indicating a contraction but less severe than expected, which may lend some support to the Euro (EUR).
In the US, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for September reported a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs, starkly contrasting the forecast of a 52,000 gain. This disappointing figure could weigh on
| Date | Time | Cur | Imp | Event | Actual | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | 00:30 | 🇮🇳 | Medium | Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 2025-10-01 | 00:30 | 🇮🇳 | Medium | RBI Financial Stability Report | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 2025-10-01 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:15 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 51.5 | 53.8 |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:30 | 🇨🇭 | Medium | procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 46.3 | 47.9 |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:30 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | ECB’s Elderson Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 03:45 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:50 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 48.2 | 48.1 |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:55 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| 2025-10-01 | 03:55 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | ECB’s De Guindos Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 04:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.8 | 49.5 |
| 2025-10-01 | 04:30 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 46.2 | 46.2 |
| 2025-10-01 | 05:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | German Buba Mauderer Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 05:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 2025-10-01 | 05:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 05:00 | 🇪🇺 | High | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 2025-10-01 | 05:30 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | German 10-Year Bund Auction | 2.720% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 05:55 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 06:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | OPEC Meeting | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 07:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 08:15 | 🇺🇸 | High | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) | -32K | 52K |
| 2025-10-01 | 09:45 | 🇺🇸 | High | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.0 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) | -0.1% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | High | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.0 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | High | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep) | 62.7 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 10:30 | 🇺🇸 | High | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.500M | |
| 2025-10-01 | 10:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 12:00 | 🇷🇺 | Medium | Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) | 2.3% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 12:00 | 🇷🇺 | Medium | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 2.2% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 13:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | 3.9% | |
| 2025-10-01 | 14:05 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 21:30 | 🇦🇺 | Medium | RBA Financial Stability Review (Aug) | ||
| 2025-10-01 | 21:30 | 🇦🇺 | Medium | Trade Balance (Aug) | 6.130B | |
| 2025-10-01 | 23:35 | 🇯🇵 | Medium | 10-Year JGB Auction |
