OPEC has released its World Oil Market Prospects for the Second Half of 2023
· Market News · MarketsFN Team
For the full Report click here
We managed to make a summary of the report for educational purpose:
- Economic growth in the US and Euro-zone has been steady in 2023, with India, Brazil, and Russia exceeding expectations. China’s reopening also continues to bolster global economic growth. Yet, there are ongoing uncertainties due to elevated key-policy rates, persistent high inflation, tight labor markets, and unresolved geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe.
- The services sector, especially travel, transportation, tourism, leisure, and hospitality, has been the main economic support globally. However, the manufacturing sector has been lackluster, and spending in the services sector is expected to tighten in Q3 2023 due to inflation, financial tightening, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, possibly dampening growth by year-end.
- Global oil demand is projected to grow by 2.4 mb/d year-on-year in the second half of 2023, making a total annual growth forecast of 2.3 mb/d. Demand within the OECD is expected to rise by 0.2 mb/d, mostly in the US and Asia Pacific, though Europe is predicted to be weak.
- The non-OECD demand, led by China, is anticipated to grow by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in 2H23, supported by improving mobility and manufacturing sector activity.
- After an estimated growth of 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in the first half of 2023, the non-OPEC liquids supply is predicted to grow by 0.7 mb/d year-on-year in the second half of the year. The total annual non-OPEC liquids supply growth is expected to be 1.4 mb/d.
- In response to global economic and oil market uncertainties, the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) countries decided in their 35th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting to maintain their production adjustments until the end of 2024, promising to monitor the market closely to support stability.