10Y Yield Eases to 4.69% as Curve Stays Positive Amid Fed Watch
· Economics · MarketsFN Data Team
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 2bps to 4.69% Tuesday, trimming its 14bps weekly gain while maintaining a positive curve signal with a 34bps 2Y-10Y spread.
The 10Y yield remains elevated, up 14bps this week and 50bps YTD, hovering near its 52-week high of 4.71%. It sits 20bps above its 3-month average (4.49%) and 43bps above its 1-year mean (4.26%), reflecting persistent inflation pressures and Fed policy expectations.
The 2Y-10Y spread narrowed 5bps this week to +34bps, well below its 52-week peak (+74bps) but firmly positive. A non-inverted curve historically signals modest growth expectations, though the narrowing spread suggests some near-term economic caution creeping in.
Markets await Wednesday's Fed policy statement and Friday's PCE inflation data for yield direction. Any hawkish Fed tweaks or hot inflation prints could push 10Y toward 4.75%, while dovish signals may test 4.60% support.
Key Statistics at a Glance
| Edition | Mid-Week Update |
| Date | Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
| 10Y Yield | 4.69% |
| 10Y Day-on-day | ▲ 2.0 bps |
| 10Y Week-on-week | ▲ 14.0 bps |
| 10Y YTD change | +50.0 bps |
| 10Y 3-month avg | 4.49% |
| 10Y 1-year avg | 4.26% |
| 10Y 52-week high | 4.71% |
| 10Y 52-week low | 3.97% |
| 2Y Yield | 4.33% |
| 2Y–10Y Spread | +0.340% (+34.0 bps) |
| Spread WoW | ▼ 5.0 bps |
| Spread 52-week high | +0.740% |
| Spread 52-week low | +0.270% |
| Curve signal | Positive |