Fastenal Company (FAST) Post Earning Analysis
Fastenal Co., founded in November 1967 by Robert A. Kierlin and four associates, is a leading company specializing in the distribution of fasteners and tools. Headquartered in Winona, Minnesota, Fastenal not only distributes products but also operates hardware stores, providing a broad range of solutions for construction and industrial needs.
The current price of the asset is $43.07, reflecting a significant drop of 4.4% today. This decline positions the price near the lower end of both the weekly range ($42.85 to $44.45) and below the moving averages for 20 and 50 days, with respective declines of 9.17% and 10.51%. However, it remains above the 200-day moving average by 3.23%.
The asset’s price is considerably down from the 52-week and year-to-date highs, both at $50.63, showing a decrease of approximately 14.93%. Despite this, it has risen 25.86% from the 52-week low and 23.76% from the year-to-date low, indicating some recovery over the longer term.
The technical indicators suggest bearish momentum: the RSI at 24.06 indicates an oversold condition, which might typically suggest a potential for price recovery, while the MACD at -0.63 signals ongoing negative momentum. This combination points to a precarious market position, where the asset is currently facing significant downward pressure but could be poised for a corrective rebound if broader market conditions stabilize.
Price Chart
Fastenal Company (Nasdaq: FAST) reported a robust financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across key metrics. The company’s net sales for Q2 2025 reached $2,080.3 million, marking an 8.6% increase from $1,916.2 million in Q2 2024. Gross profit rose by 9.2% to $942.8 million, while operating income saw a 12.7% jump to $436.1 million. Net income improved by 12.8%, totaling $330.3 million.
Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $0.29, up from $0.25 in the previous year, reflecting a 12.7% increase. The daily sales rate (DSR) grew by 8.6% to $32.5 million. Notably, OEM fasteners, safety supplies, and non-fasteners categories all experienced significant DSR growth, contributing to the overall positive results.
Fastenal also continued its shareholder returns, distributing $252.5 million in dividends in Q2 2025, which is a 13.1% increase from the prior year. The company maintained a healthy cash flow, with net cash provided by operating activities rising by 8.1% to $278.6 million. Total debt was slightly reduced to $230.0 million, representing 5.7% of total capital, down from 6.3% in Q2 2024. These results underscore Fastenal’s strong financial health and operational efficiency.
Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-10-13 | 0.30 | 0.29 | -2.39 |
| 1 | 2025-04-11 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.06 |
| 2 | 2025-01-17 | 0.48 | 0.46 | -3.77 |
| 3 | 2024-10-11 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 1.28 |
| 4 | 2024-07-12 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| 5 | 2024-04-11 | 0.53 | 0.52 | -1.42 |
| 6 | 2024-01-18 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1.88 |
| 7 | 2023-10-12 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 3.40 |
Over the last eight quarters, the earnings per share (EPS) trends for the company under review exhibit a relatively stable performance with occasional fluctuations. The EPS estimates and reported EPS figures are closely aligned, indicating effective forecasting and consistent operational execution.
A closer examination reveals that the company has mostly met or slightly exceeded EPS expectations. Notably, in Q4 2023, the reported EPS of 0.52 exceeded the estimate of 0.50 by 3.40%, suggesting a strong performance relative to expectations. Similarly, in Q4 2024, the reported EPS again surpassed the estimate, albeit by a smaller margin of 1.28%. These instances highlight periods of robust financial management and possibly better-than-anticipated operational efficiency.
Conversely, there have been quarters where the company underperformed relative to expectations. The most significant shortfall occurred in Q1 2025, where the reported EPS of 0.46 was 3.77% below the estimate of 0.48. Another slight underperformance was observed in the most recent quarter, Q3 2025, with a -2.39% surprise, where the reported EPS of 0.29 slightly missed the estimate of 0.30.
Overall, the company demonstrates a pattern of stable earnings with minor variances between expected and actual outcomes. The trend suggests a well-managed operation with the ability to meet or come close to analyst expectations consistently, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence.
Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-29 | 0.22 |
| 2025-04-25 | 0.22 |
| 2025-01-31 | 0.215 |
| 2024-10-25 | 0.195 |
| 2024-07-26 | 0.195 |
| 2024-04-24 | 0.195 |
| 2024-01-31 | 0.195 |
| 2023-12-05 | 0.19 |
The analyzed dividend data over the last eight quarters shows a clear upward trend in the dividend payouts. Starting from December 2023, where the dividend was recorded at $0.19, there has been a consistent increase, reaching $0.22 by July 2025. This progression illustrates a strategic increment in shareholder returns over the period.
From December 2023 to January 2024, the dividend saw a modest increase from $0.19 to $0.195. This increment was maintained consistently across four quarters until a slight enhancement to $0.215 in January 2025. Notably, the dividends then escalated in subsequent quarters, reaching $0.22 by April 2025 and maintaining this level by July 2025.
These trends indicate a positive outlook on the company’s financial health and a commitment to rewarding shareholders. The gradual increase in dividends suggests careful financial management and a stable growth trajectory, likely reflecting the company’s operational success and confidence in sustained profitability. Such trends are critical for investors seeking reliable and growing income streams.
The four most recent rating changes for Outer reflect a mix of neutral and positive outlooks from various financial firms.
-
Barclays – October 8, 2025: Barclays initiated coverage on Outer with an “Equal Weight” rating and set a target price of $49. This initiation suggests a neutral outlook, implying that Barclays analysts believe Outer’s stock performance will align closely with the broader market or industry average.
-
Northcoast – August 21, 2025: Northcoast also initiated coverage on Outer but did not specify a target price, assigning a “Neutral” rating. This rating indicates that Northcoast does not foresee significant price movement from current levels in the near term, maintaining a cautious but not pessimistic stance.
-
Robert W. Baird – August 7, 2025: In a more optimistic move, Robert W. Baird upgraded Outer from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and established a target price of $55. This upgrade implies that Baird’s analysts expect Outer’s stock to perform better than the industry or market average, reflecting potential upside from operational or market developments observed by the analysts.
-
Wolfe Research – April 3, 2025: Wolfe Research upgraded Outer from “Underperform” to “Peer Perform.” Although no target price was provided with this upgrade, the change to “Peer Perform” indicates a shift to a neutral stance, suggesting that Wolfe Research now views Outer’s future performance to be in line with its peers, rather than lagging behind as previously anticipated.
Overall, these ratings and adjustments suggest a cautiously optimistic sentiment towards Outer, with recent upgrades indicating improved performance expectations, while the initiation of neutral ratings reflects a wait-and-see approach from some analysts.
The current price of the stock stands at $43.07. Recent analyst ratings suggest a potential upside, with target prices set at $49 by Barclays and $55 by Robert W. Baird, indicating an average target price of $52. This represents an approximate 20.8% increase from the current price. The upgrades and initiations from notable firms such as Robert W. Baird and Wolfe Research, transitioning from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and “Underperform” to “Peer Perform” respectively, reflect a positive shift in market sentiment towards the stock. This trend suggests increasing confidence among analysts regarding the stock’s future performance, potentially driven by underlying improvements in earnings per share (EPS) and dividend trends, although specific EPS and dividend data are not provided in the summary. The alignment of these upgrades with a higher target price points towards an optimistic outlook for the stock in the near future.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By acting, you accept full responsibility for your choices.
