The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc., founded in 1946 by Estee and Joseph Lauder, is a leading global manufacturer of premium beauty products. Headquartered in New York, NY, the company produces and markets skin care, makeup, fragrances, and hair care products under renowned brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, and Bobbi Brown, among others.
Estée Lauder (EL) has recently been in the news due to its financial performance and strategic decisions, which have significant implications for its stock. On August 20, 2025, Estée Lauder reported its Q4 earnings, revealing a wider loss and a 12% year-over-year decline in sales, primarily due to weak demand in China and duty-free markets. Despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, the company announced a disappointing outlook, including a forecast of annual profit below expectations and an anticipated $100 million impact from tariffs. This outlook led to a sharp decline in Estée Lauder’s stock, with the company also announcing plans to cut up to 7,000 jobs.
These developments are critical for investors as they highlight challenges in key markets and potential cost pressures from tariffs. The job cuts suggest a significant restructuring effort to stabilize finances, which could affect short-term performance but potentially lead to longer-term efficiencies. The overall negative sentiment around these announcements could keep the stock under pressure, making it a focal point for investors monitoring the consumer goods sector and international market dynamics.
The current price of the asset is $88.92, reflecting a significant drop of 2.33% today. This price is positioned closer to the week’s low of $88.83, and notably below the week’s high of $91.1, indicating a bearish short-term trend. Over a broader timeline, the asset has appreciated considerably from its 52-week and year-to-date lows of $48.12, showing an 84.79% increase, which suggests strong bullish momentum over the longer term.
However, the asset is currently trading below its 20-day moving average by 2.1%, yet above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages by 2.67% and 22.09%, respectively. This mixed signal in moving averages might indicate some consolidation or indecision in the market.
The RSI at 49.79 is near the neutral 50 mark, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while a MACD of 0.7 indicates a slight bullish momentum in the short term. Overall, the asset shows potential resilience and upward trajectory over the long term but faces short-term volatility and pressure.
## Price Chart
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. reported its Q4 2025 financial results, revealing a challenging fiscal period with significant declines across key financial metrics. The company’s net sales decreased by 8% year-over-year to $14,326 million, while organic sales mirrored this decline. Gross profit fell to $10,597 million, down 5% from the previous year, although gross margin improved slightly to 74.0%.
The company faced a substantial downturn in operating performance, reporting an operating loss of $785 million, a stark contrast to the $970 million profit in 2024. This resulted in an operating margin of -5.5%. Net earnings per common share plummeted to $(3.15), down from $1.08 in the prior year, with adjusted diluted earnings per share also decreasing by 42% to $1.51.
Net cash flows from operating activities were $1.27 billion, a decrease from $2.36 billion in 2024, impacted by lower pre-tax earnings and changes in operating assets and liabilities. Capital expenditures were reduced to $602 million as part of an optimized investment strategy.
Regionally, sales declines were noted across all segments, with the Americas down 4%, EMEA down 12%, and Asia-Pacific down 7%. Product categories also saw reductions, with skincare and makeup experiencing significant sales drops.
Despite these challenges, Estée Lauder is focusing on its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, aiming to improve future profitability and achieve a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin in the coming years. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, payable on September 16, 2025.
## Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-08-20 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 4.25 |
| 1 | 2025-05-01 | 0.32 | 0.65 | 104.98 |
| 2 | 2025-02-04 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 93.50 |
| 3 | 2024-10-31 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 48.07 |
| 4 | 2024-08-19 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 140.60 |
| 5 | 2024-05-01 | 0.49 | 0.97 | 99.93 |
| 6 | 2024-02-05 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 60.01 |
| 7 | 2023-11-01 | -0.20 | 0.11 | 154.73 |
Over the past eight quarters, the company has consistently surpassed EPS estimates, indicating a robust upward trend in its financial performance. Notably, the most significant positive surprises occurred in November 2023 and August 2024, where the surprise percentages were 154.73% and 140.60%, respectively. These quarters significantly outperformed expectations, with the November 2023 quarter notably turning a forecasted loss into a profit.
The trend shows a fluctuation in the degree of positive surprise, with the lowest being 4.25% in August 2025, suggesting a closer alignment between expectations and actual performance. However, the overall pattern indicates that analysts have generally underestimated the company’s earnings potential.
The quarters in 2025 demonstrate a stabilization in EPS surprises, with a notable decrease in surprise percentage compared to the high volatility observed in 2024. This could suggest that analysts are adjusting their forecasts closer to actual outcomes as they recalibrate expectations based on the company’s demonstrated earnings capacity.
In summary, the company has not only consistently beaten EPS estimates but has also shown periods of significant outperformance, highlighting its potential unpredictability in earnings power and the challenges for analysts in accurately forecasting its financial outcomes.
## Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-05-30 | 0.35 |
| 2025-02-28 | 0.35 |
| 2024-11-29 | 0.35 |
| 2024-08-30 | 0.66 |
| 2024-05-31 | 0.66 |
| 2024-02-28 | 0.66 |
| 2023-11-29 | 0.66 |
| 2023-08-30 | 0.66 |
The dividend data over the last eight samples reveals a distinct trend in the dividend payouts. From August 2023 to August 2024, the dividend amount was consistently set at $0.66. This period of stability suggests that the company was maintaining a steady financial performance, allowing it to sustain a higher dividend payout.
However, starting from November 2024, there is a noticeable shift as the dividend amount was reduced to $0.35. This reduction has persisted through the three most recent data points up to May 2025. The decrease in the dividend amount by nearly half could indicate several potential shifts in the company’s financial strategy or performance. This might include a reallocation of funds towards business investments or acquisitions, a need to conserve cash due to decreased earnings or increased operational costs, or possibly a precautionary measure in response to economic uncertainties.
Overall, the data points to a significant change in the company’s dividend policy starting from late 2024, which stakeholders should closely analyze for implications on the company’s financial health and strategic direction.
The four most recent rating changes for the company under review exhibit a generally positive shift in analyst sentiment, as evidenced by the actions taken by various financial firms.
1. **Telsey Advisory Group – August 14, 2025**: Telsey Advisory Group reiterated its “Market Perform” rating but significantly increased the target price from $66 to $99. This substantial revision in the target price suggests that while Telsey maintains a neutral stance on the stock’s performance relative to the market, they anticipate stronger financial performance or market conditions that could favor the company.
2. **JP Morgan – July 25, 2025**: JP Morgan upgraded the company from “Neutral” to “Overweight” with a target price of $101. This upgrade indicates a shift from a stance of neutrality to a more bullish outlook, suggesting that JP Morgan forecasts the company will outperform the average returns of the sector or the broader market.
3. **BofA Securities – July 10, 2025**: BofA Securities resumed coverage with a “Buy” rating, setting a target price at $110. The initiation of coverage with a positive rating and a high target price underscores BofA Securities’ confidence in the company’s future growth and profitability.
4. **HSBC Securities – June 27, 2025**: HSBC Securities upgraded the company from “Hold” to “Buy.” Although no specific target price was provided with this upgrade, the change from a neutral to a positive rating implies a favorable outlook on the company’s valuation and potential market performance.
Overall, these rating changes reflect a trend of increasing optimism among analysts regarding the company’s market position and financial health. The upgrades and positive reiterations could influence investor sentiment and potentially impact the company’s stock price positively.
The current price of the stock stands at $88.92. Recent analyst ratings suggest a generally positive outlook, with target prices ranging from $99 to $110, indicating potential upside from the current level. Specifically, Telsey Advisory Group recently reiterated a ‘Market Perform’ rating but raised their target from $66 to $99. JP Morgan upgraded the stock from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Overweight’ with a target price of $101, while BofA Securities resumed coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target of $110. HSBC Securities also shifted from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy,’ although they did not specify a target price.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By acting, you accept full responsibility for your choices.
