The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Post Earning Analysis
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., founded in 1869 by Marcus Goldman and headquartered in New York, NY, is a leading global financial services firm. It operates through three main segments: Global Banking and Markets, offering investment banking and investments; Asset and Wealth Management, focusing on direct-to-consumer banking; and Platform Solutions, which includes consumer credit and transaction banking.
Recent financial news highlights significant developments in the banking sector, particularly focusing on Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Bank of America reported a substantial 43% jump in investment-banking revenue, leading to a significant profit beat. This surge is part of a broader Wall Street boom, which has also boosted profits at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Specifically, Goldman Sachs has seen a rebound in investment banking and strategic expansion, which has shaped a positive outlook for its future performance.
Goldman Sachs has also been recognized for its entrepreneurship, further solidifying its reputation in the financial sector. Despite these positive earnings reports and strategic expansions, the stock market has shown mixed responses. For instance, Goldman Sachs experienced a 5% selloff even after reporting record revenues. This indicates a complex market sentiment that may be influenced by broader economic conditions and investor expectations.
Overall, these developments suggest a robust performance in the investment banking sector, which could have positive implications for the stock performance of companies like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, albeit tempered by market volatility and investor reactions to broader economic signals.
The current price of the stock is $771.58, showing a modest increase of 0.6% today. This price is near the upper range of the 52-week span, with a high of $825.25 and a low of $434.87, indicating a significant upward trend over the past year. The stock is currently 6.5% below its 52-week and year-to-date high, yet it has risen 77.43% from its lowest point this year, showcasing strong yearly gains.
The stock’s price is slightly below the 20-day moving average (MA20) by 2.35%, but above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving averages by 1.24% and 19.82%, respectively. This suggests a positive medium to long-term trend but indicates some recent pullback or consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.35 points toward a neither overbought nor oversold condition, supporting a potential for either direction in the short term. The MACD value of 2.44, being positive, hints at underlying bullish momentum, although it’s not strongly pronounced.
Overall, the stock shows robust long-term gains with recent consolidation, positioned for potential growth but requiring monitoring for clearer directional cues from short-term indicators.
Price Chart
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with net revenues reaching $15.18 billion, marking a 20% increase from the same period in 2024 and a 4% rise from the second quarter of 2025. The firm’s net earnings for Q3 stood at $4.10 billion, up 37% year-over-year and 10% sequentially. Earnings per share (EPS) significantly rose to $12.25, a 46% increase from Q3 2024 and a 12% increase from the previous quarter.
Year-to-date metrics also showed strong performance, with revenues totaling $44.83 billion and net earnings at $12.56 billion. The EPS for the first three quarters was $37.33, up 30% from the previous year. The annualized return on equity (ROE) was impressive at 14.6% for the year.
Key revenue drivers included the Global Banking & Markets segment, which contributed $10.12 billion, and the Asset & Wealth Management division, which saw revenues of $4.40 billion, both marking significant increases from the previous year. Investment Banking Fees also surged by 42% to $2.66 billion.
Operating expenses for the quarter were $9.45 billion, up 14% from Q3 2024. The firm’s effective tax rate increased slightly to 21.5%. Goldman Sachs declared a quarterly dividend of $4.00 per share and returned $3.25 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.
Overall, Goldman Sachs demonstrated strong financial health and growth across its key business segments, reflecting robust operational performance and effective capital management.
Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-10-14 | 11.03 | 12.25 | 11.06 |
| 1 | 2025-04-14 | 12.35 | 14.12 | 14.33 |
| 2 | 2025-01-15 | 8.22 | 11.95 | 45.30 |
| 3 | 2024-10-15 | 6.89 | 8.40 | 21.98 |
| 4 | 2024-07-15 | 8.34 | 8.62 | 3.30 |
| 5 | 2024-04-15 | 8.56 | 11.58 | 35.28 |
| 6 | 2024-01-16 | 3.51 | 5.48 | 56.02 |
| 7 | 2023-10-17 | 5.31 | 5.47 | 2.98 |
The analysis of EPS trends over the last eight quarters reveals a generally upward trajectory in both estimated and reported EPS figures, with particularly notable surges in the surprise percentage in several quarters. Starting from Q4 2023, the reported EPS modestly exceeded estimates with a 2.98% surprise, indicating a stable performance. This trend of surpassing estimates continues but with increasing magnitude.
A significant jump is observed in Q1 2024, where the surprise percentage soared to 56.02%, followed by a robust performance in Q2 2024 with a 35.28% surprise. This pattern suggests a period of underestimation by analysts or an exceptional operational performance by the company, or possibly both. The following quarter shows a tempering in surprise at 3.30%, possibly indicating a market correction or stabilization of earlier volatility.
The upward trend resumes in Q4 2024 with a 21.98% surprise, and continues to grow reaching a peak of 45.30% in Q1 2025. The subsequent quarters show a slight moderation yet remain strong, with surprises of 14.33% and 11.06% in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 respectively.
Overall, the data indicates that the company has consistently outperformed EPS estimates, suggesting robust financial health and potentially effective management strategies that consistently yield financial results better than market expectations. This trend of positive surprises could be indicative of conservative estimates or the company’s operational excellence and efficiency improvements over the analyzed period.
Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | 3 |
| 2025-02-28 | 3 |
| 2024-12-02 | 3 |
| 2024-08-30 | 3 |
| 2024-05-30 | 2.75 |
| 2024-02-28 | 2.75 |
| 2023-11-29 | 2.75 |
Analyzing the dividend data over the last eight samples, there is a discernible trend of increasing dividend payouts. From November 2023 through February 2024, dividends remained stable at 2.75. Subsequently, there was a modest increase in May 2024, when dividends rose to 2.75, marking the beginning of a gradual upward trend. This increment continued steadily with dividends being maintained at 3 through three consecutive periods from August 2024 to February 2025.
A notable jump occurred in May 2025, when dividends increased from 3 to 4, representing the largest single increase in the observed period. This suggests a significant positive adjustment in the company’s dividend policy, possibly reflecting stronger financial performance or a confident outlook by the company’s management regarding future earnings.
Overall, the trend indicates a healthy progression in dividend payments, reflecting potentially positive underlying financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. This trend of incrementally increasing dividends could be a positive signal to investors looking for stable and growing income streams.
The four most recent rating changes for the company in question reflect a varied outlook from different financial institutions, each adjusting their stance based on presumably new data and market conditions.
- BMO Capital Markets (2025-10-03) – BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a “Market Perform” rating and a target price of $785. This initiation suggests a neutral outlook, indicating that BMO expects the company to perform in line with the general market expectations. The target price of $785 implies that BMO sees some potential upside from current levels, assuming the market conditions remain stable.
- Citizens JMP (2025-07-14) – Citizens JMP downgraded their rating from “Market Outperform” to “Market Perform.” This change indicates a shift from an expectation of the company outperforming the market to aligning with the market. The absence of a specific target price suggests a general caution or uncertainty about the company’s future performance metrics.
- HSBC Securities (2025-07-08) – HSBC Securities downgraded their rating from “Hold” to “Reduce” with a target price of $627. This represents a bearish outlook, indicating that HSBC analysts believe the stock will underperform and suggesting that investors reduce their holdings. The target price of $627 also points to a significant downside risk from previous levels.
- Morgan Stanley (2025-04-07) – Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from “Overweight” to “Equal-Weight” and set a target price of $558. This downgrade implies that Morgan Stanley no longer expects the company to outperform the broader market as previously anticipated. The target price of $558 further underscores a cautious or pessimistic view of the company’s growth prospects or market conditions.
These rating changes reflect a mix of caution and moderate optimism, with firms adjusting their expectations based on the evolving market landscape and company-specific factors. Each firm’s stance provides valuable insights into the perceived risk and potential of the company moving forward.
As of the latest data, the current price of the stock stands at $771.58. This figure is compared against a backdrop of varied analyst expectations and target prices. Notably, BMO Capital Markets recently initiated coverage with a target price of $785, suggesting a slight upside potential. Conversely, HSBC Securities and Morgan Stanley have set lower target prices at $627 and $558 respectively, indicating a potential downside based on their assessments.
The recent analyst actions include downgrades from both Citizens JMP and HSBC Securities, with Citizens JMP adjusting their rating from “Market Outperform” to “Market Perform,” and HSBC downgrading from “Hold” to “Reduce.” Morgan Stanley also adjusted their rating from “Overweight” to “Equal-Weight.” These revisions suggest a cautious or negative outlook from analysts concerning the stock’s future performance.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By acting, you accept full responsibility for your choices.
