Weekly Recap: Nikkei Soars While Gold Dips Amid Rate Cuts
Week of October 24 – October 31, 2025
📊 Market Overview
Financial markets wrapped up the week of October 24-31, 2025, on a buoyant note, buoyed by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data and a Federal Reserve rate cut that reinforced expectations of a gentle economic landing. Equities led the charge, with the S&P 500 extending its historic winning streak amid strong corporate earnings, particularly in technology, where Nvidia’s $400 billion valuation surge highlighted ongoing AI enthusiasm. Bonds rallied as Treasury yields dipped, reflecting bets on further monetary easing, while the dollar softened against major currencies, aiding a rebound in emerging markets. Commodities were mixed, with oil prices climbing on unexpected inventory draws. Overall sentiment shifted from cautious to optimistic, as investors digested signs of cooling inflation without derailing growth, though geopolitical tensions and corporate debt concerns lingered in the background.
Central bank actions dominated the week’s early proceedings on October 24, setting a dovish tone that rippled through global markets. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering its benchmark to 4.00% from 4.25%, in line with forecasts. The accompanying FOMC statement emphasized balanced risks to employment and inflation, while Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference underscored confidence in progress toward the 2% inflation target, hinting at potential pauses in future cuts if data cooperates. This move, the third reduction this year, eased borrowing costs and boosted risk assets. Across the border, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25%, as expected, following a recent 25-basis-point trim, with officials citing resilient consumer spending but vigilance on trade uncertainties. In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.50%, unchanged from prior meetings, as policymakers weighed wage growth against yen weakness. These decisions, absent surprises from the ECB or other majors, reinforced a global easing bias, with markets pricing in about 75 basis points of additional Fed cuts by year-end, spurring a rally in equity futures overnight.
Economic data releases on October 24 painted a picture of moderating inflation and resilient activity, fueling the week’s positive momentum. U.S. consumer prices for September showed a milder rise than anticipated, with core CPI increasing 0.2% month-over-month against a 0.3% forecast, and the headline CPI edging up 0.3% monthly versus 0.4% expected; year-over-year, headline inflation held at 3.0%, just shy of the 3.1% projection and up from August’s 2.9%. This downside surprise eased fears of sticky prices, prompting a dip in 10-year Treasury yields to 3.85% and lifting stock indices by over 1% intraday. Supporting this, S&P Global’s October manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 from 52.0, beating estimates of 51.9, signaling expansion in factory output, while the services PMI surged to 55.2, well above the 53.5 forecast and prior 54.2 reading, driven by robust new orders. Consumer confidence also held firm, with the Conference Board’s October index at 94.6, topping the 93.4 estimate despite a slight dip from 95.6. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories plunged by 6.858 million barrels, far exceeding the 0.9 million draw forecast, tightening supply perceptions. These figures collectively reinforced the Fed’s rationale for easing, with markets reacting bullishly as lower inflation bolstered soft-landing narratives without signaling recession.
Market movers underscored the week’s tech-led optimism and energy resilience. The S&P 500 climbed 2.1% to close at a record high, powered by a 600% yearly surge in Asia’s Victory Giant on Nvidia partnership news, while Nvidia itself added $400 billion in market cap through Jensen Huang’s dealmaking spree. Big Tech earnings exposed some cracks in AI spending justifications but still propelled the Nasdaq up 2.8%, with semiconductors outperforming amid Europe’s chip war concerns. Berkshire Hathaway’s soaring earnings and $382 billion cash pile further juiced financials, up 1.5%. Commodities shone as crude oil rallied 3.2% to $72 per barrel on the massive U.S. inventory drop and OPEC+ talks of a small December output hike. The dollar index fell 0.8%, weakening the USD against the yen and loonie after the Fed’s cut and BoC’s steady stance, benefiting exporters. Laggards included European indices, down 0.5% on budget worries and BOE rate-hold expectations, while corporate zombies and credit fraud fears weighed on high-yield bonds, yielding a modest 0.2% decline. These shifts stemmed directly from the inflation cooldown and policy support, channeling capital into growth-sensitive sectors.
In summary, the week highlighted easing inflation and central bank accommodation as key drivers of equity gains, with tech and energy standing out amid broader risk-on flows. Investors shrugged off Argentina’s post-election market rally pains and China’s gold tax reversal, focusing instead on resilient U.S. data. Looking ahead, attention turns to November’s jobs report, ECB policy signals, and U.S. election developments, with any tariff truce hints potentially extending the bull run while zombie debt trends bear watching for credit risks.
📈 Indices
S&P 500
Current Price: 6840.20 | Weekly Change: +0.7143%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed the week with a modest gain of 0.71%, currently priced at 6840.2002. The index is trading above its key moving averages, with the 20-day moving average at 6738.9285, indicating a 1.50% upward distance, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages both rest at 6663.3020, reflecting a 2.65% premium. This positioning suggests a bullish sentiment in the short to medium term. The S&P 500 is nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 6917.8982, which may signal an overbought condition if prices push higher. The RSI stands at 61.78, indicating a neutral zone, suggesting that the index is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD value of 64.3577 shows bullish momentum, reinforcing the positive outlook. Currently, the index is approaching its 52-week high of 6920.3398, with a low of 6360.5801. Key support levels to watch include the 20-MA at 6738.9285, while resistance is seen near the upper Bollinger Band at 6917.8982.
Nasdaq 100
Current Price: 25858.13 | Weekly Change: +1.9716%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has shown a robust weekly performance, gaining 1.97% and currently trading at 25858.1309. The price is positioned above the key moving averages, with the 20-MA at 25148.7336, indicating a 2.82% distance above this level. Both the 50-MA and 200-MA are at 24655.2614, with the current price exceeding these averages by 4.88%, reflecting a strong bullish trend. The index is nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 26157.7536, while the lower band sits at 24139.7136, suggesting that the price may be approaching overbought territory. The RSI at 64.48 remains in the neutral zone, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Additionally, the MACD at 404.9131 highlights bullish momentum, supporting the upward trend. With a 52-week high of 26182.0996 and a low of 22977.8809, traders should monitor the key support at the 20-MA and resistance at the upper Bollinger Band for potential price action.
Dow Jones
Current Price: 47562.87 | Weekly Change: +0.7536%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a modest weekly gain of 0.75%, closing at 47,562.87. This upward movement positions the index above key moving averages, with the current price sitting 1.78% above the 20-week moving average of 46,730.17 and 2.67% above both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, which are aligned at 46,327.10. The index is currently near the upper Bollinger Band at 47,958.63, suggesting potential overbought conditions, while the lower band sits at 45,501.70. The RSI, at 65.18, indicates that the index is in a neutral zone, reflecting a lack of extreme buying or selling pressure. Additionally, the MACD shows bullish momentum at 417.16, reinforcing the positive sentiment. The Dow is approaching its 52-week high of 48,040.64, with a significant low at 44,948.16. Key support levels to monitor include the 20-MA at 46,730.17, while resistance is seen near the upper Bollinger Band.
Euro Stoxx 50
Current Price: 5662.04 | Weekly Change: -0.2196%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the week with a slight decline of 0.22%, settling at 5662.04. The index remains positioned above the 20-week moving average (MA) at 5643.29, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, it is also well above the 50-MA and 200-MA, both at 5527.13, reflecting a stronger long-term bullish trend. The price is currently in the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands, which have an upper limit at 5744.70 and a lower limit at 5541.89, suggesting a period of consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.64, indicating a neutral zone with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. However, the MACD at 58.50 shows bearish momentum, which could signal a potential reversal if selling pressure increases. The index is approaching its 52-week high of 5734.28, with a notable low of 5290.46. Key support can be found at the 50-MA, while resistance is likely at the upper Bollinger Band level. Traders should monitor these levels closely for future movements.
Nikkei 225
Current Price: 52411.34 | Weekly Change: +6.3118%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Nikkei 225 has shown a robust weekly performance, gaining 6.31% and closing at 52411.3398, marking a new 52-week high. The index is currently positioned well above key moving averages, with the price sitting 7.18% above the 20-MA at 48898.7977 and 12.78% above both the 50-MA and 200-MA, which are at 46472.2444. This positioning indicates a strong bullish trend. The price is also approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 52079.0983, suggesting potential overextension, as it is near this upper limit while the lower band rests at 45718.4970. The RSI at 76.16 confirms that the index is in overbought territory, indicating caution for potential pullbacks. However, the MACD at 1706.1674 reflects strong bullish momentum, supporting the current upward trend. Traders should watch for support at the 20-MA and resistance at the 52-week high of 52411.3398, as these levels could dictate future price movements.
Shanghai Composite
Current Price: 3954.79 | Weekly Change: +0.1134%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a modest weekly gain of +0.11%, currently trading at 3954.79. The index is positioned above both the 20-day moving average (MA) at 3916.86 and the 50-day MA at 3878.54, indicating a bullish trend in the near term, as it sits approximately 0.97% and 1.97% above these levels, respectively. The 200-day MA aligns with the 50-day MA, reinforcing this support level. The Bollinger Bands are currently mid-range, with the upper band at 4020.56 and the lower band at 3813.16, suggesting the index has room for movement without being overextended. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.05 indicates a neutral zone, suggesting that the index is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD at 36.98 reflects bullish momentum. The index is approaching its 52-week high of 4025.71, with key support at the 50-day and 200-day MAs, while resistance can be expected near the upper Bollinger Band. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout or reversal signals.
💱 Forex
EUR/USD
Current Price: 1.1572 | Weekly Change: -0.3959%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair experienced a modest decline of 0.40% over the past week, currently trading at 1.1572. The price remains below the 20-day moving average (MA) at 1.1632, indicating bearish sentiment, with a distance of 0.51% from this key level. Both the 50-day and 200-day MAs are also positioned above the current price at 1.1689, reinforcing the downward bias as the price is 1.00% away from these averages. The Bollinger Bands suggest a neutral market, with the upper band at 1.1717 and the lower band at 1.1547, placing the current price near the mid-range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.68, indicating a neutral zone, while the MACD shows bearish momentum at -0.0024, suggesting continued selling pressure. The pair is trading close to its 52-week low of 1.1524, making this a critical support level to watch. Resistance levels are evident near the 20-MA and the upper Bollinger Band, which could cap upward movements.
USD/JPY
Current Price: 153.9000 | Weekly Change: +0.8506%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair has shown a robust weekly performance, gaining +0.85% and currently trading at 153.9400. The price is situated significantly above the 20-day moving average (MA) at 152.0755, indicating a bullish trend, and it remains well above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, which are both at 149.7055, reflecting strong upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands reveal that the price is mid-range, with the upper band at 154.1530 and the lower band at 149.9981, suggesting potential volatility ahead as the price approaches the upper band.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65.60, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone, which leaves room for further upward movement without being overbought. Additionally, the MACD reading of 1.1140 confirms bullish momentum, supporting the overall positive outlook. The pair is also close to its 52-week high of 154.4410, with a notable low of 146.2170. Key support is observed at the 20-MA (152.0755), while resistance is likely near the upper Bollinger Band (154.1530). Traders should monitor these levels for potential price action.
🛢️ Commodities
Gold
Current Price: 3996.50 | Weekly Change: -2.9599%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Gold has experienced a notable decline this week, with a performance of -2.96%, bringing the current price to 3996.5000. The price is currently trading below the 20-week moving average (MA) of 4072.3450, indicating a bearish trend, while remaining above both the 50-MA and 200-MA, both situated at 3871.8909, suggesting potential support at this level. The Bollinger Bands reveal that the price is near the lower band at 3855.6495, which may indicate that gold is approaching oversold conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 50.69, reflecting a neutral stance, while the MACD at 54.5943 indicates bearish momentum, which could signal further downward pressure. Gold’s proximity to its 52-week high of 4358.0000 and low of 3485.7000 highlights the volatility in the market. Key levels to watch include the immediate support at 3871.8909 and resistance at 4072.3450, which could dictate the next price movements.
Crude Oil
Current Price: 60.9800 | Weekly Change: -0.8455%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Crude oil has experienced a weekly decline of 0.85%, currently trading at $60.9800. The price is positioned above the 20-day moving average (MA) at $59.9230, indicating a short-term bullish sentiment, yet it remains below both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, both sitting at $61.7230, suggesting potential resistance ahead. The price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band at $63.2405, which could indicate overbought conditions if breached, while the lower band at $56.6055 provides a crucial support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51.17, reflecting a neutral market sentiment, neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a value of -0.4142, indicating bullish momentum, albeit still below the zero line. With a 52-week high of $66.4200 and a low of $56.3500, traders should closely monitor the key resistance at $61.7230 and support at $59.9230, as these levels will likely dictate the next price movement.
₿ Crypto
Bitcoin
Current Price: 109556.16 | Weekly Change: -1.3309%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s weekly performance has seen a slight decline of 1.33%, with the current price at 110,638.57. The price is positioned just above the 20-day moving average (MA) at 110,204.40, indicating a short-term bullish sentiment, while it remains below the 50-day MA at 113,849.68 and the 200-day MA at 113,601.48, suggesting a broader bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands show the upper band at 114,583.22 and the lower band at 105,825.58, with the current price sitting in the mid-range, indicating potential consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.15, reflecting a neutral market condition, which suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the MACD is at -1,019.18, indicating bullish momentum, which could signal a potential reversal if buying pressure increases. Proximity to the 52-week high of 126,198.07 and low of 103,598.43 highlights significant volatility. Key support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band, while resistance levels to watch include the 50-day and 200-day MAs.
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