Weekly Report: Bitcoin and Major Indices Experience Significant Declines
Week of October 31 – November 07, 2025
📊 Market Overview
The financial markets entered the week of October 31 to November 7, 2025, on a note of cautious optimism, buoyed by stabilizing inflation signals from Europe, but quickly descended into volatility as U.S. economic angst and political uncertainties took center stage. Equities experienced sharp swings, with the S&P 500 closing the week narrowly lower amid fears of a government shutdown, while technology and AI-related stocks faced profit-taking after earlier exuberance. Bonds rallied modestly as investors sought safe havens, pushing 10-year Treasury yields down to around 4.2%. Commodities were mixed, with oil dipping on demand worries, and the U.S. dollar strengthening against major currencies amid mixed manufacturing data. Overall sentiment shifted from guarded hope to defensive positioning, driven by softening consumer confidence and doubts over artificial intelligence investments’ near-term returns, underscoring a broader unease about economic resilience heading into year-end.
Central bank activities remained subdued this week, with no major rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, or Bank of Japan, allowing markets to focus on data rather than policy pivots. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% on October 31, as anticipated, signaling a continued pause in tightening amid cooling inflation pressures down under. This decision provided a mild lift to the Australian dollar, which edged higher against the greenback, reflecting confidence in the region’s steady growth trajectory. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell in a mid-week speech, reiterated a data-dependent approach to future rate cuts, emphasizing that while inflation was progressing toward the 2% target, persistent labor market strength warranted caution. ECB President Christine Lagarde echoed similar restraint in comments on November 4, noting that eurozone wage growth remained a watchpoint despite the bloc’s benign inflation print. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda, in a November 5 address, downplayed immediate yen intervention needs, contributing to the currency’s mild depreciation. Absent aggressive moves, these statements reinforced a global environment of gradual normalization, though U.S. fiscal brinkmanship overshadowed monetary narratives.
Economic data releases painted a picture of uneven recovery, with U.S. manufacturing showing resilience in some metrics but contractionary signals elsewhere, fueling recessionary fears. On October 31, eurozone CPI for October came in at 2.1% year-over-year, matching forecasts and down from September’s 2.2%, which eased pressure on the ECB and supported a slight uptick in European stocks early in the week. In the U.S., the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for October surprised to the upside at 42,000 jobs added, exceeding the 32,000 forecast and rebounding from the prior month’s -29,000, hinting at labor market stabilization. However, manufacturing indicators were less encouraging: the Chicago PMI rose to 43.8 from 40.6 but still below the 42.3 estimate, signaling ongoing regional softness. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.5, just above the 52.2 forecast, indicating modest expansion, yet the ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed at 48.7 against 49.4 expected, dipping from 49.1 and confirming contraction for the month. Adding to the gloom, ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 58.0 from 61.9, undershooting the 62.4 forecast and pointing to easing input costs. By November 7, U.S. consumer sentiment had plunged to near-record lows, as households grappled with inflation persistence and fiscal policy risks, triggering a sell-off in risk assets and amplifying calls for Fed intervention.
Market movers highlighted the week’s turbulence, with U.S. indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending lower after a late-session boost on November 7 evaporated amid government shutdown jitters and airline sector stress from potential flight cuts. The Dow Jones managed a flat close, buoyed by defensive sectors, but technology underperformed as investors questioned the pace of earnings growth from heavy AI capital expenditures, leading to a 2% drop in the sector. Crypto assets tumbled over 5%, mirroring doubts about speculative bets in a high-interest environment. Commodities saw oil prices slide 3% to below $70 per barrel, pressured by Vietnam’s ambitious 8.4% fourth-quarter GDP target signaling potential oversupply risks in Asia, while gold gained 1.5% as a hedge against uncertainty. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.8%, supported by the positive ADP jobs data and manufacturing resilience, strengthening against the euro and yen but softening versus the Australian dollar post-RBA hold. Sector-wise, energy lagged due to biofuel blending exemptions for refiners like HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, which failed to offset broader demand angst, while healthcare surged on news of Pfizer’s $10 billion acquisition of Metsera, capping a bidding war and highlighting biotech resilience.
In summary, the week exposed fault lines in the U.S. economy, from mixed jobs and manufacturing prints to plummeting consumer sentiment, compounded by shutdown threats that derailed equity gains. Key takeaways include persistent global disinflation aiding policy patience, yet domestic political risks amplifying volatility. Investors now eye the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report and Fed minutes for clues on December rate cut odds, alongside U.S. fiscal negotiations, as markets brace for potential AI-driven corrections and selective opportunities in credit amid corporate bond complacency.
📈 Indices
S&P 500
Current Price: 6728.80 | Weekly Change: -1.63%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 experienced a weekly decline of 1.63%, closing at 6728.7998. Currently, the index is positioned just below the 20-week moving average (MA) at 6757.5645, indicating a potential resistance level. However, it remains above both the 50-MA and 200-MA, both at 6693.4853, suggesting that these moving averages could act as strong support. The price is currently mid-range within the Bollinger Bands, with the upper band at 6922.0072 and the lower band at 6593.1217, indicating a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.46, reflecting a neutral market sentiment. Meanwhile, the MACD at 30.9092 indicates bearish momentum, which could suggest further downside risk if the index fails to reclaim the 20-MA. The proximity to the 52-week high of 6920.3398 and low of 6483.0801 highlights the current volatility. Traders should closely monitor the 6693.4853 level for support and 6757.5645 for resistance in the coming sessions.
Nasdaq 100
Current Price: 25059.81 | Weekly Change: -3.08%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced a notable decline of 3.09% over the past week, currently trading at 25,059.8105. The price is positioned below the 20-week moving average (MA) at 25,295.8930, indicating a bearish trend, while it remains slightly above both the 50-MA and the 200-MA, both at 24,847.0804, by 0.86%. This positioning suggests potential support around the 50-MA level. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is mid-range, with the upper band at 26,261.6443 and the lower band at 24,330.1417, implying limited volatility and a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.69, placing it within the neutral zone, which suggests that there is no immediate overbought or oversold condition. However, the MACD shows bearish momentum at 218.0376, reinforcing the downward pressure. The Nasdaq 100 is also trading significantly below its 52-week high of 26,182.0996, while remaining above its low of 23,698.0000. Key support is identified at the 50-MA, while resistance is observed at the 20-MA.
Dow Jones
Current Price: 46987.10 | Weekly Change: -1.21%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones experienced a weekly decline of 1.21%, closing at 46,987.1016. Currently, the index is positioned slightly above the 20-week moving average (MA) at 46,924.8963, by 0.13%, while it is also above the 50-MA and 200-MA, both at 46,498.5720, by 1.05%. This positioning suggests a short-term bullish sentiment, although the recent price action indicates potential consolidation. The Bollinger Bands reveal the index is trading within the mid-range, with the upper band at 48,018.6734 and the lower band at 45,831.1192, indicating limited volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52.33, reflecting a neutral market condition, neither overbought nor oversold. However, the MACD at 244.1198 shows bearish momentum, hinting at possible downward pressure. With a 52-week high of 48,040.6406 and a low of 45,277.7305, traders should closely monitor the key support at the 50-MA and resistance near the upper Bollinger Band for potential breakout or reversal signals.
Euro Stoxx 50
Current Price: 5566.53 | Weekly Change: -1.71%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Euro Stoxx 50 has experienced a weekly decline of 1.69%, currently trading at 5566.53. The price is positioned slightly above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both at 5561.32, indicating a neutral stance with a minor advantage. However, it remains below the 20-day moving average at 5650.16, suggesting potential resistance ahead. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the index is mid-range, with the upper band at 5745.72 and the lower band at 5554.60, which implies a consolidation phase. The RSI is currently at 42.75, placing it in the neutral zone and indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bearish momentum at 27.79, reflecting downward pressure. The index is trading close to its 52-week high of 5734.28 and low of 5324.66, making these levels significant for traders. Key support can be found near the lower Bollinger Band at 5554.60, while resistance is likely at the 20-day MA of 5650.16.
Nikkei 225
Current Price: 50276.37 | Weekly Change: -4.07%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Nikkei 225 experienced a notable decline of 4.07% over the past week, currently trading at 50276.3711. The index remains above its 20-week moving average (MA) of 49572.2672, indicating a short-term bullish sentiment, as it is currently 1.42% above this level. However, it is also well above the 50-MA and 200-MA, both at 47382.1121, suggesting a stronger long-term bullish trend, with a distance of 6.11% from these averages.
Analyzing the Bollinger Bands, the price is situated in the mid-range between the upper band at 52500.0312 and the lower band at 46644.5032, which indicates a potential for volatility in either direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.55 is in the neutral zone, reflecting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Conversely, the MACD at 1375.4345 signals bearish momentum, suggesting caution for potential downward pressure.
The Nikkei is trading close to its 52-week high of 52636.8711, with key support levels to watch at the 50-MA and 200-MA, while resistance is seen near the upper Bollinger Band.
Shanghai Composite
Current Price: 3997.56 | Weekly Change: +1.08%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly gain of 1.08%, closing at 3997.5559, indicating a positive trend as it approaches the 4000 psychological level. Currently, the index is positioned above both the 20-day moving average (MA) at 3942.2045 and the 50-day MA at 3898.6814, reflecting bullish momentum. The 200-day MA, also at 3898.6814, further reinforces this upward trend, with the price currently 2.54% above these key support levels.
Bollinger Bands show the upper band at 4043.3983 and the lower band at 3841.0107, placing the current price near the mid-range, suggesting potential for further upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.64 indicates that the index is in a neutral zone, leaving room for additional gains without being overbought. The MACD, at 34.9472, supports this bullish outlook with positive momentum.
As the index approaches its 52-week high of 4025.7051, traders should monitor key support at the 20-MA and resistance at the upper Bollinger Band.
USD/JPY
Current Price: 152.9480 | Weekly Change: -0.6186%
🔍 Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY has experienced a weekly decline of 0.62%, currently trading at 152.9480. The price is positioned above the 20-period moving average (MA) at 152.4261, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, while remaining significantly above the 50 and 200-MAs at 150.2757, suggesting a robust long-term uptrend. The Bollinger Bands reveal that the price is mid-range, with the upper band at 154.7676 and the lower band at 150.0845, indicating potential for volatility but no immediate breakout.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.86, placing it in the neutral zone, which suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the MACD at 1.1918 indicates bearish momentum, suggesting caution for bullish traders. The current price is relatively close to the 52-week high of 154.4620, which may act as a resistance level, while the low of 146.2170 remains a significant support level. Traders should monitor the 20-MA for potential support and the upper Bollinger Band for resistance in the coming sessions.
🛢️ Commodities
Gold
Current Price: 3999.40 | Weekly Change: +0.4319%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Gold has seen a modest weekly performance, gaining 0.43% and currently trading at 3999.3999. The price remains below the 20-week moving average (MA) of 4072.4800, indicating a bearish sentiment, as it is down 1.79% from this level. However, it is above both the 50-MA and 200-MA, both positioned at 3909.6644, suggesting some underlying strength with a 2.30% gain from these critical support levels. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is near the lower band at 3858.1499, which could signal potential support if tested. The RSI stands at 51.01, placing it in the neutral zone, reflecting a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Meanwhile, the MACD reading of 25.9662 suggests bearish momentum, which may exert downward pressure on prices. With a 52-week high of 4358.0000 and a low of 3590.0000, traders should watch key support at the 50-MA and resistance at the 20-MA for potential market direction.
Crude Oil
Current Price: 59.7500 | Weekly Change: -2.01%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Crude oil experienced a weekly decline of 2.02%, currently trading at $59.75. The price is positioned slightly above the 20-day moving average (MA) at $59.6235, reflecting a minor bullish sentiment. However, it remains below both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, both at $61.3620, indicating potential resistance levels. The Bollinger Bands suggest that the current price is mid-range, with the upper band at $62.3961 and the lower band at $56.8509, which may indicate a phase of consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.53, placing it in the neutral zone, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage at this moment. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a value of -0.4326, indicating bullish momentum, which could signal a potential reversal if buying interest increases. With a 52-week high of $66.42 and a low of $56.35, traders should monitor the key support level around $56.85 and resistance near $61.36 for potential trading opportunities.
₿ Crypto
Bitcoin
Current Price: 103372.41 | Weekly Change: -5.64%
🔍 Technical Analysis
Bitcoin experienced a weekly decline of 5.64%, currently trading at 102,243.76. The price is situated below key moving averages, with the 20-MA at 108,430.79, indicating a 5.71% deficit, while the 50-MA and 200-MA are even further away at 112,288.85 and 112,847.57, representing declines of 8.95% and 9.40%, respectively. This positioning suggests a bearish trend as the price struggles to reclaim these critical levels.
The Bollinger Bands indicate that Bitcoin is approaching the lower band at 100,538.70, which may act as a support level if the downtrend continues. The RSI stands at 37.49, placing it in the neutral zone, suggesting that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold at this moment. Additionally, the MACD reading of -2,732.32 reflects ongoing bearish momentum.
With a 52-week high of 126,198.07 and a low of 98,962.06, Bitcoin’s current price is closer to its yearly low. Key support to watch is at the lower Bollinger Band, while resistance lies at the 20-MA level.
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