American Express Company (AXP) Post Earning Analysis
American Express Co., founded in 1850 and headquartered in New York, NY, is a global financial services powerhouse. The company operates primarily in card issuance, merchant acquisition, and managing a vast payments network. Its diverse offerings include consumer and business credit cards, corporate programs, savings products, and a dedicated mobile app. American Express serves varied market segments across the United States, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), APAC (Asia Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand), LACC (Latin America, Canada, and the Caribbean), and other regions, ensuring a broad international presence.
Recent news indicates a significant rebound in the stock market, particularly noting the performance of the Dow and American Express (Amex). On October 17, 2025, the Dow experienced a rebound following a recent bank scare, while American Express stocks eyed their best day since May due to a rise in third-quarter sales, driven by increased cardholder spending confidence. This positive trajectory for American Express was further supported by their third-quarter earnings surpassing expectations, fueled by a surge in demand for Platinum cards and an acceleration in credit card spending.
However, the broader market faced challenges as highlighted by a drop in Dow industrials futures over concerns about bank credit. Despite these concerns, American Express raised its full-year guidance, reflecting strong financial health and consumer spending resilience among its affluent customer base. This series of financial results and optimistic forecasts could potentially bolster investor confidence in American Express, contributing positively to its stock performance in the near term.
The current price of the asset is $340.20, showing a notable increase of 5.04% today, indicating strong intra-day momentum. This price is very close to the week high of $340.50 and just 2.33% below the 52-week and year-to-date high of $348.31. This suggests a bullish trend in the short term, as the asset is testing resistance levels near historical highs.
The price is significantly above its 52-week low of $219.32 by 55.12%, and the moving averages (MA20 at 2.61%, MA50 at 4.98%, and MA200 at 13.78%) all indicate a positive trend over different periods, with prices well above these averages, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.24 is in the upper range of the neutral zone, nearing the overbought territory but still suggesting that there might be some room for upward movement before extreme levels are reached. The MACD at 0.78 is positive, supporting the ongoing momentum.
In conclusion, the asset is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend with potential resistance near the 52-week high. The indicators suggest continued bullish behavior, though caution is warranted as it approaches overbought conditions.
Price Chart
American Express (NYSE: AXP) reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across key financial metrics. For Q3 2025, the company posted a net income of $2.9 billion, marking a 16% increase from $2.5 billion in Q3 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) also rose by 19%, from $3.49 in Q3 2024 to $4.14 in the current quarter.
Total revenues, net of interest expense, were $18.4 billion, up 11% from $16.6 billion in the same period last year. This growth was supported by a 9% increase in billed business, which reached $421.0 billion. Despite a slight decrease in average diluted common shares outstanding by 2%, consolidated expenses climbed by 10% to $13.3 billion.
American Express also reported a lower provision for credit losses at $1.3 billion, down 7.1% from the previous year, maintaining a stable net write-off rate at 1.9%. The effective tax rate increased to 24.1%, up from 21.8% in Q3 2024.
Highlighting its innovation and expansion, American Express launched new digital products including the Amex Travel App and introduced Amex Ads, a new advertising platform. The company also expanded its global merchant acceptance network and announced a significant partnership with Toast.
Based on these strong results, American Express has raised its full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to 9%-10% and adjusted its EPS forecast to between $15.20 and $15.50.
Earnings Trend Table
| Date | Estimate EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-10-17 | 4.00 | 4.14 | 3.50 |
| 1 | 2025-04-17 | 3.46 | 3.64 | 5.13 |
| 2 | 2025-01-24 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 0.03 |
| 3 | 2024-10-18 | 3.28 | 3.49 | 6.31 |
| 4 | 2024-07-19 | 3.24 | 3.49 | 7.58 |
| 5 | 2024-04-19 | 2.96 | 3.33 | 12.69 |
| 6 | 2024-01-26 | 2.64 | 2.62 | -0.71 |
| 7 | 2023-10-20 | 2.94 | 3.30 | 12.17 |
Over the past eight quarters, the company has shown a generally positive trend in its earnings per share (EPS), with consistent outperformance relative to analyst estimates. Notably, in six of the eight quarters, the reported EPS exceeded the estimates, often by significant margins. The largest positive surprises occurred in Q2 and Q4 of 2024, with surprise percentages of 12.69% and 12.17%, respectively, indicating substantial outperformance against expectations.
The trend in EPS also reflects a steady upward trajectory, moving from 2.62 in Q1 2024 to 4.14 in Q3 2025. This progression suggests effective management strategies and possibly favorable market conditions boosting the company’s profitability. However, there were slight deviations from this upward trend, such as in Q1 2024, where the reported EPS slightly underperformed against the estimate by -0.71%, marking the only negative surprise in this period.
Overall, the data indicates robust financial health and effective earnings management, positioning the company well for future quarters, provided it maintains this momentum. The consistent surpassing of EPS estimates could also positively influence investor confidence and market perceptions of the company’s financial stability and growth prospects.
Dividend Payments Table
| Date | Dividend |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | 0.82 |
| 2025-07-03 | 0.82 |
| 2025-04-04 | 0.82 |
| 2025-01-03 | 0.70 |
| 2024-10-04 | 0.70 |
| 2024-07-05 | 0.70 |
| 2024-04-04 | 0.70 |
| 2024-01-04 | 0.60 |
The dividend data spanning from January 2024 to October 2025 indicates a clear trend of increasing dividend payouts by the company. Initially, in January 2024, the dividend was set at $0.60. This figure remained consistent through the quarters of 2024, witnessing a gradual increase to $0.70 starting from April 2024 and continuing through the end of the year. This increment represents a 16.7% rise from the January 2024 dividend.
The upward trend continued into 2025, where starting from January, the dividend was increased to $0.70 and then further elevated to $0.82 by April, maintaining this higher rate through the subsequent quarters. The increase from $0.70 in January 2025 to $0.82 in April represents a significant 17.1% rise. This pattern suggests a robust financial performance and possibly a strategic decision by the company to return more capital to its shareholders. The consistent dividend increases across the observed period reflect positively on the company’s earnings stability and growth prospects.
The most recent rating changes for Outer reflect varying sentiments from different financial firms, illustrating shifts in market perception and expectations.
- On July 21, 2025, DZ Bank issued a downgrade for Outer from “Hold” to “Sell.” This change indicates a bearish outlook from the firm, suggesting that DZ Bank analysts may foresee potential challenges or underperformance in Outer’s future operations or market conditions. However, no specific target price was provided with this downgrade.
- Shortly before, on July 15, 2025, Monness Crespi & Hardt also adjusted their stance on Outer, downgrading it from “Buy” to “Neutral.” This shift suggests a cooling of their previously optimistic view on the stock, possibly due to less favorable analyses of expected performance or market trends. Like DZ Bank, Monness Crespi & Hardt did not assign a new target price with this rating change.
- Earlier in the year, on April 23, 2025, Redburn Atlantic upgraded Outer from “Sell” to “Neutral,” setting a target price of $255. This upgrade indicates a moderation in negative sentiment previously held by Redburn Atlantic, possibly due to improvements in Outer’s operational or financial outlook that could stabilize the stock value around the specified target.
- Two days prior, on April 21, 2025, Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated their “Buy” rating on Outer but adjusted the target price upwards from $275 to $285. This action reinforces a positive outlook on the stock, with increased confidence in Outer’s potential to achieve higher market value, reflected in the upward revision of the target price.
These recent ratings provide a mixed but nuanced view of Outer’s market position and future prospects, ranging from significant optimism to cautious pessimism.
The current price of the stock is $340.20, which is considerably higher than the average target price given by analysts. Recent adjustments in ratings include a downgrade by DZ Bank from “Hold” to “Sell” and by Monness Crespi & Hardt from “Buy” to “Neutral.” Earlier in the year, Redburn Atlantic upgraded their rating from “Sell” to “Neutral” with a target price of $255, and Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated a “Buy” rating, adjusting their target from $275 to $285. These target prices suggest a consensus that the current market price may be overvalued, reflecting potential investor caution or a reassessment of the stock’s future performance.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By acting, you accept full responsibility for your choices.
