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10Y Yields Rise 12 Bps to 4.56% as Curve Steepens Further

· Economics · MarketsFN Data Team

Fixed Income · Treasury Yields · Weekly Close

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points this week to settle at 4.56%, extending its 2026 uptrend while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to +38 bps, reinforcing a positive curve signal.

The 10-year yield rose 12 bps this week to 4.56%, marking its highest weekly close since early June. It now sits 12.5 bps above its 3-month average and 31 bps above its 1-year average, remaining just 11 bps shy of its 52-week high of 4.67% hit in April 2026.

The 2Y-10Y spread widened 7 bps this week to +38 bps, its steepest level since February, as longer-dated yields outpaced short-term moves. The persistently positive curve suggests markets anticipate neither near-term Fed cuts nor immediate recession risks, contrasting with last year's inversion fears.

36-month yield spread chart
Fig. 2 — 2Y–10Y Treasury spread over 36 months. Green fill = normal curve; red fill = inverted (recession warning signal). Grey shading marks NBER-defined recessions where applicable.

Traders will scrutinize June CPI data and Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony next week for clues on inflation persistence, with yields sensitive to any shift in rate-cut expectations ahead of the July FOMC meeting.

Key Statistics at a Glance

EditionWeekly Close
DateFriday, July 10, 2026
10Y Yield4.56%
10Y Day-on-day▲ 1.0 bps
10Y Week-on-week▲ 12.0 bps
10Y YTD change+37.0 bps
10Y 3-month avg4.43%
10Y 1-year avg4.25%
10Y 52-week high4.67%
10Y 52-week low3.97%
2Y Yield4.21%
2Y–10Y Spread+0.380% (+38.0 bps)
Spread WoW▲ 7.0 bps
Spread 52-week high+0.740%
Spread 52-week low+0.270%
Curve signalPositive
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Series: DGS10, DGS2, T10Y2Y, USREC · Daily, business days only · Source: US Treasury / Federal Reserve.

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