Short term positive momentum for the commodity, which is rising by 42c or 0.61% to 72.23 $/barrel. There is a battle between bulls and bear: the bullish are OPEC, KSA, EIA versus bearish Hedge Funds. If the macro scenario is weak , cutting supply does not help, but Crude Oil futures remain an highly speculative vehicle, where macro views anticipates and reacts quickly to new scenario developments. From a technical perspective the commodity looks have bottomed, with a double bottom (included a bullish spike made last May).
It did not bounce back strongly, but developed a range where at the moment manage to rise above both 21 day SMA and the 55 day EMA.
Tactical trading range strategies seem offering more opportunities than position trading, because bears will be right if new lows are made and bulls will be correct in case of higher highs and higher lows.
Meanwhile there are two relevant resistance that could be reached during this quarter: area 75 and then the 200 day SMA.
Below 67 $/barrel and then 63.64 is likely to see another bearish wave, with position short seller pleased to their timing at higher prices, but where decision were not taken based on technical set ups.
