Home Forex Forex Report: Cautious sentiment amid geopolitical tensions, UK inflation data impacts GBP,...

Forex Report: Cautious sentiment amid geopolitical tensions, UK inflation data impacts GBP, NZD/USD plunges 1.59%

0

# “Forex Report: Cautious sentiment amid geopolitical tensions, UK inflation data impacts GBP, NZD/USD plunges 1.59%”

## Forex and Global News
In today’s forex market, the sentiment remains cautious amid geopolitical tensions and mixed corporate earnings reports. The U.S. dollar (USD) is slightly stronger, with the DXY index at 98.21, reflecting a daily change of -0.0580%.

Geopolitical developments are also influencing market dynamics, particularly with Israel’s mobilization of 60,000 reservists for a Gaza invasion, raising concerns about regional instability. Meanwhile, European defense stocks are under pressure amid renewed hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

In commodities, gold prices are testing three-week lows as traders await insights from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming minutes and Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which could further impact the USD and related currencies. Overall, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with major currencies like the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), and British pound (GBP) reflecting uncertainty amid these developments.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-08-20 02:00 🇬🇧 High CPI (YoY) (Jul) 3.8% 3.7%
2025-08-20 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.1% -0.1%
2025-08-20 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium CPIH (YoY) 4.2%
2025-08-20 02:00 🇪🇺 Medium German PPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.1% 0.1%
2025-08-20 03:10 🇪🇺 Medium ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2025-08-20 03:30 🇸🇪 Medium Interest Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00%
2025-08-20 05:00 🇪🇺 Medium Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.3% 2.3%
2025-08-20 05:00 🇪🇺 Medium CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0% 0.0%
2025-08-20 05:00 🇪🇺 High CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.0% 2.0%
2025-08-20 08:30 🇨🇦 Medium New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.1%
2025-08-20 10:30 🇺🇸 High Crude Oil Inventories -0.800M
2025-08-20 10:30 🇺🇸 Medium Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
2025-08-20 11:00 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Waller Speaks
2025-08-20 13:00 🇺🇸 Medium 20-Year Bond Auction
2025-08-20 14:00 🇺🇸 High FOMC Meeting Minutes
2025-08-20 15:00 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2025-08-20 20:00 🇺🇸 Medium Jackson Hole Symposium
2025-08-20 20:30 🇯🇵 Medium au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Aug)

On August 20, 2025, several key economic events are poised to influence foreign exchange markets, particularly for the GBP and EUR.

At 02:00 ET, UK inflation data was released, showing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) for July at 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.7%. Additionally, the CPI (MoM) came in at 0.1%, defying expectations of a -0.1% decline. This stronger-than-expected inflation data could bolster the GBP, as it raises the likelihood of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England.

In the Eurozone, German Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) data released at the same time showed a decrease of -0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.1% increase. This negative surprise may weigh on the EUR, indicating potential economic weakness in Germany. However, core inflation data for the Eurozone remained stable, with the CPI (YoY) at 2.0%, aligning with forecasts.

Later in the day, the focus will shift to the U.S. with multiple events, including the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and speeches from Fed officials, which could further impact USD volatility, especially ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the evening.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1651 -0.1491 -0.0035 -0.2237 0.1736 2.8219 10.96 11.96 5.0915 1.1647 1.1455 1.0985 68.51 0.0012
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 147.44 -0.3205 -0.1686 -0.2139 -0.6663 2.5648 -1.3159 -6.0849 0.5065 146.52 145.55 149.30 42.20 0.2171
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3495 -0.0945 -0.2605 -0.0648 0.5925 0.5695 6.5117 7.5413 3.8881 1.3505 1.3397 1.3008 69.92 0.0013
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.8072 -0.0260 -0.0396 0.1315 0.7514 -2.1659 -10.1174 -10.6328 -6.3975 0.8038 0.8177 0.8565 40.89 0.0011
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6438 -0.8760 -0.9174 -1.4073 -1.1395 0.0747 0.5279 3.5033 -4.4158 0.6521 0.6451 0.6388 48.52 -0.0009
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3869 0.4847 0.4047 0.7219 1.0565 0.0592 -2.1656 -3.3506 1.7535 1.3704 1.3801 1.4037 55.96 0.0031
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5830 -1.5909 -1.5460 -2.1528 -2.0707 -1.7518 1.1321 3.3660 -4.7103 0.5990 0.5944 0.5835 38.91 -0.0023

In the current forex landscape, select pairs exhibit notable overbought and oversold conditions. The EUR/USD is approaching overbought territory with an RSI of 68.51, while its MACD remains marginally positive, indicating bullish momentum. However, caution is warranted as it nears the 70 threshold.

The GBP/USD is similarly positioned, with an RSI of 69.92, suggesting potential overbought conditions. Its MACD is also positive, reinforcing the bullish sentiment, yet traders should remain vigilant for a possible correction.

Conversely, the USD/JPY shows a more neutral RSI at 42.20, with a positive MACD, indicating a stable environment without immediate overbought or oversold signals. The USD/CHF and NZD/USD both display oversold conditions, with RSIs of 40.89 and 38.91, respectively, coupled with negative MACDs, suggesting bearish trends.

Overall, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD warrant attention for potential revers

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8631 -0.0799 0.2358 -0.1874 -0.4407 2.2147 4.1463 4.0847 1.1770 0.8623 0.8549 0.8441 51.80 0.0000
EUR/JPY EURJPY 171.73 -0.4943 -0.1969 -0.4648 -0.5196 5.4366 9.4672 5.1075 5.6026 170.62 166.71 163.80 56.92 0.4282
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9402 -0.2006 -0.0797 -0.1243 0.8972 0.5669 -0.3012 0.0266 -1.6837 0.9360 0.9362 0.9387 69.84 0.0023
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.8100 0.7543 0.9459 1.2202 1.3495 2.7714 10.36 8.1754 9.9897 1.7861 1.7755 1.7191 77.96 0.0043
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 198.98 -0.4124 -0.4224 -0.2726 -0.0698 3.1584 5.1287 1.0041 4.4175 197.86 194.98 194.02 55.18 0.4915
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0893 -0.1192 -0.3011 0.0698 1.3491 -1.6087 -4.2678 -3.8902 -2.7820 1.0854 1.0952 1.1123 62.64 0.0026
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 94.88 -1.2367 -1.1255 -1.6564 -1.8396 2.6031 -0.8082 -2.8149 -3.9678 95.51 93.87 95.33 39.10 0.0128
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1043 0.7224 0.6334 0.7582 1.0117 1.8574 -0.5745 0.1419 0.3068 1.0885 1.0850 1.0949 75.19 0.0028
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 182.66 -0.2854 -0.1137 -0.3328 -1.3972 4.8513 9.8114 5.0979 7.4081 182.27 178.05 174.49 46.21 0.0121
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 85.91 -1.9405 -1.7397 -2.3906 -2.7531 0.7411 -0.2265 -2.9574 -4.2606 87.72 86.51 87.06 32.70 -0.2078

Currently, the EUR/AUD pair exhibits an overbought condition with an RSI of 77.96, suggesting potential price corrections ahead. The EUR/CHF is nearing overbought territory with an RSI of 69.84, while the MACD remains neutral, indicating a cautious approach. Conversely, the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pairs are in oversold territory, with RSIs of 39.10 and 32.70, respectively, and negative MACD values, suggesting potential buying opportunities. The GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF pairs show moderate conditions, with RSIs below 70, indicating stability. Traders should monitor these pairs closely for potential reversals or continuations based on these technical indicators.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 40.92 0.0830 0.1717 0.3975 1.2935 5.3745 12.45 15.90 21.20 40.21 39.41 37.56 84.18 0.1960
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.70 0.4208 0.6733 0.7514 -0.0119 -1.5180 -3.3861 -5.6819 -0.0463 17.77 18.08 18.17 38.87 -0.0511
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.50 -0.0308 0.1232 0.3396 0.3706 -0.6116 -3.1008 -4.8010 -5.3003 32.47 32.86 33.48 41.24 -0.0078
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.5851 0.2812 0.0373 0.4640 -0.7417 0.1407 -9.8224 -13.0514 -6.9835 9.5728 9.6388 10.21 33.03 -0.0078
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 10.27 0.6172 0.4871 0.5338 0.9032 0.9179 -7.4633 -9.3775 -2.5125 10.13 10.25 10.68 47.23 0.0179
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.4088 0.1920 0.0364 0.2845 -0.1391 -2.6607 -9.7716 -10.5770 -4.7802 6.4075 6.5173 6.8064 32.15 -0.0063
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.80 0.1835 -0.0070 1.2230 0.5060 -2.9270 -7.3621 -8.8806 0.7224 18.76 19.21 19.79 47.53 -0.0104
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6470 0.2350 -0.2071 0.1516 -0.0566 -2.4995 -7.9170 -11.2012 -5.1340 3.6540 3.7162 3.8712 31.72 -0.0050
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 338.55 0.1435 -0.1760 -0.0198 -1.2833 -4.6762 -11.5980 -14.2921 -4.7239 342.50 350.72 368.88 25.58 -1.4928
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 21.02 0.3160 0.0419 0.3811 -0.6504 -4.2302 -11.8483 -12.9912 -7.2726 21.14 21.64 22.76 33.51 -0.0644

In the current forex landscape, USD/TRY is significantly overbought with an RSI of 84.18, indicating potential exhaustion in upward momentum, while MACD remains positive, suggesting bullish sentiment persists. Conversely, USD/ZAR and USD/SEK are both in oversold territory, with RSIs of 38.87 and 33.03, respectively, and negative MACD readings, indicating bearish pressure. The moving averages for these pairs suggest a lack of upward momentum. Additionally, USD/HUF shows extreme oversold conditions with an RSI of 25.58 and a notably negative MACD, highlighting significant downside potential. Traders should monitor these indicators for potential reversals or continuations.

Exit mobile version