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Forex Report: Fed signals potential rate cuts, German Trade Balance shows surplus, USD/JPY climbs 0.27%

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# Forex Report: Fed signals potential rate cuts, German Trade Balance shows surplus, USD/JPY climbs 0.27%

## Forex and Global News
Today, forex markets reacted to significant geopolitical and economic developments. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent minutes indicated a consensus among officials for potential interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, fostering a cautious sentiment around the dollar. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) strengthened against the Pound Sterling (GBP), with the EUR/GBP rising to approximately 0.8680, influenced by political uncertainty in France as President Macron prepares to appoint a new Prime Minister.

In the commodities space, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose to $62.24 per barrel, reflecting bullish sentiment. Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure but holds above the critical $4,000 mark as traders await insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Additionally, the ongoing peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which include a hostage release, may ease regional tensions, impacting market dynamics.

The DXY is currently at 98.86, reflecting a daily change of 0.1378%.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-10-09 02:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Trade Balance (Aug) 17.2B 15.1B
2025-10-09 03:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba Balz Speaks
2025-10-09 04:30 🇬🇧 Medium BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
2025-10-09 06:00 🇪🇺 Medium Eurogroup Meetings
2025-10-09 07:30 🇪🇺 Medium ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
2025-10-09 08:00 🇨🇦 Medium BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
2025-10-09 08:00 🇧🇷 Medium CPI (YoY) (Sep) 5.22%
2025-10-09 08:30 🇺🇸 High Fed Chair Powell Speaks
2025-10-09 08:35 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
2025-10-09 11:00 🇺🇸 Medium Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%
2025-10-09 11:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s Lane Speaks
2025-10-09 12:00 🇺🇸 Medium WASDE Report
2025-10-09 12:45 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
2025-10-09 13:00 🇺🇸 High 30-Year Bond Auction
2025-10-09 13:00 🇺🇸 Medium Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.8%
2025-10-09 15:45 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
2025-10-09 16:30 🇺🇸 Medium Fed’s Balance Sheet
2025-10-09 17:30 🇳🇿 Medium Business NZ PMI (Sep)
2025-10-09 18:00 🇦🇺 Medium RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
2025-10-09 21:40 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Daly Speaks

On October 9, 2025, key economic events are poised to influence the FX markets, particularly concerning the Euro (EUR) and the U.S. Dollar (USD).

The German Trade Balance for August reported a surplus of €17.2 billion, significantly surpassing the forecast of €15.1 billion. This positive surprise is likely to bolster the EUR, reflecting stronger-than-expected export performance, which may attract bullish sentiment among investors.

At 11:00 AM, the U.S. Construction Spending for August is anticipated to decline by 0.1%. Should this data come in weaker than expected, it could exert downward pressure on the USD, indicating potential weaknesses in the U.S. economy.

Additionally, several speeches from key Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Barr, are scheduled throughout the day. Market participants will closely monitor their remarks for insights into future monetary policy, which could further influence USD volatility.

Overall, the day holds potential for significant movement in the EUR/USD pair, driven by the German trade data and U.S. economic indicators, as well as central bank communications that could reshape market expectations.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1631 -0.0430 -0.8027 -0.8783 -1.1737 -0.6131 3.3147 11.77 5.9700 1.1689 1.1633 1.1201 32.62 -0.0008
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 152.93 0.2675 3.9286 3.9760 3.7777 4.5410 6.3890 -2.5886 3.2209 147.93 146.63 148.31 72.09 0.6378
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3387 -0.1417 -0.4436 -0.6912 -1.2254 -1.4181 3.0397 6.6770 2.2312 1.3471 1.3501 1.3157 37.54 -0.0021
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.8017 0.0374 0.5872 0.6011 1.1213 0.6251 -2.3222 -11.2418 -6.4964 0.8010 0.8047 0.8408 65.97 -0.0007
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6595 0.0607 -0.0468 -0.3098 -0.0468 0.0152 5.9711 6.0289 -2.1455 0.6551 0.6533 0.6417 45.92 0.0009
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3948 -0.0072 -0.0924 0.0610 1.1091 2.1360 -0.0215 -2.8000 2.1682 1.3831 1.3761 1.3985 78.61 0.0042
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5786 -0.0518 -0.5757 -0.6150 -2.6760 -4.2324 0.6631 2.5939 -5.6332 0.5884 0.5947 0.5846 32.52 -0.0029

In the current forex landscape, several key pairs exhibit notable overbought and oversold conditions based on RSI, MACD, and moving average crossovers.

The USD/JPY is in overbought territory with an RSI of 72.09, indicating potential upward exhaustion. The positive MACD further supports bullish momentum, but caution is warranted as price corrections may occur. Conversely, the USD/CAD is significantly overbought at an RSI of 78.61, with a positive MACD suggesting sustained bullish activity; however, this raises the risk of a sharp pullback.

On the other hand, EUR/USD and NZD/USD are both in oversold conditions, with RSIs of 32.62 and 32.52, respectively. Both pairs show negative MACD readings, indicating bearish momentum, which could present buying opportunities if market sentiment shifts. The GBP/USD and AUD/USD are also in neutral zones, suggesting limited immediate volatility, but they remain influenced by broader market trends. Traders

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8686 0.1037 -0.3819 -0.2080 0.0311 0.8066 0.2505 4.7528 3.6342 0.8676 0.8613 0.8508 51.95 0.0010
EUR/JPY EURJPY 177.83 0.2204 3.0702 3.0415 2.5347 3.8903 9.8892 8.8380 9.3594 172.85 170.52 165.87 68.49 0.7317
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9322 0.0000 -0.2461 -0.3016 -0.0868 -0.0043 0.8885 -0.8192 -0.9246 0.9360 0.9356 0.9390 41.87 -0.0009
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7635 -0.0850 -0.7636 -0.5711 -1.1258 -0.6177 -2.5050 5.3968 8.2925 1.7844 1.7805 1.7443 43.27 -0.0027
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 204.72 0.1218 3.4696 3.2609 2.5111 3.0670 9.6310 3.9219 5.5332 199.22 197.95 194.91 66.57 0.6115
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0732 -0.1117 0.1418 -0.0847 -0.1098 -0.7959 0.6575 -5.3073 -4.3835 1.0787 1.0863 1.1040 43.52 -0.0023
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 100.83 0.3064 3.8682 3.6376 3.7080 4.5402 12.72 3.2830 0.9896 96.86 95.76 95.09 71.92 0.5576
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1394 0.0878 0.5030 0.2799 2.6681 4.4057 5.2411 3.3287 3.6638 1.1123 1.0980 1.0976 70.05 0.0068
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 190.72 0.2191 3.3162 3.3403 2.6146 3.8846 8.9235 9.7355 10.38 184.66 182.24 176.65 68.53 0.9631
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 88.47 0.2232 3.3382 3.3370 1.0093 0.1256 7.1038 -0.0587 -2.5939 87.06 87.19 86.62 61.61 -0.0338

Current analysis reveals mixed conditions across key FX pairs. EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY are nearing overbought territory with RSIs of 68.49 and 68.53, respectively, suggesting potential price corrections. The AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD pairs exceed the overbought threshold at 71.92 and 70.05, supported by positive MACD readings, indicating bullish momentum but caution is warranted for potential reversals. Conversely, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF display oversold conditions, with RSIs below 50 and negative MACDs, suggesting possible buying opportunities. Overall, traders should monitor these indicators closely for potential shifts in market sentiment.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.71 -0.0158 0.1755 0.2904 1.0991 3.8741 9.6733 18.15 21.75 41.17 40.47 38.74 94.06 0.1640
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.16 0.1371 -0.6311 -0.2632 -1.7243 -3.1589 -11.9323 -8.5457 -2.3765 17.54 17.67 18.07 40.41 -0.0923
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.57 0.2154 0.4007 0.5557 2.8093 -0.0614 -3.6960 -4.5959 -2.9210 32.24 32.38 33.09 77.34 0.0871
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.4354 0.0796 0.4463 0.6613 0.9013 -0.6547 -3.9689 -14.4091 -8.6271 9.4728 9.5176 9.9426 61.53 -0.0134
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 9.9829 0.1073 0.0782 0.6953 0.0942 -0.9033 -7.3450 -11.8712 -6.7535 10.06 10.08 10.48 62.32 -0.0180
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.4209 0.0577 0.8355 0.9226 1.2162 0.7021 -3.1829 -10.4077 -5.4987 6.3858 6.4159 6.6763 67.77 0.0047
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.33 0.0289 -0.4188 -0.2582 -1.7047 -1.4319 -10.9717 -11.1345 -5.2235 18.58 18.75 19.48 55.30 -0.0582
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6596 0.1176 0.8052 0.8460 1.4358 0.7940 -3.2244 -10.8951 -6.5523 3.6431 3.6597 3.7928 64.41 0.0000
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 336.60 0.2006 1.4907 1.6010 0.8107 -1.1782 -6.3854 -14.7873 -7.4647 336.40 341.32 358.82 64.58 -0.4896
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.95 0.1003 1.2855 1.4292 1.4169 -0.3766 -5.8638 -13.2760 -9.1370 20.87 21.11 22.19 65.74 -0.0069

In the current analysis, USD/TRY is significantly overbought with an RSI of 94.06 and a positive MACD, suggesting potential for a price correction. Conversely, USD/ZAR shows bearish momentum with an RSI of 40.41 and a negative MACD, indicating a possible oversold condition. USD/THB is also in overbought territory with an RSI of 77.34, while other pairs like USD/SEK and USD/NOK are nearing neutral territory, with RSIs of 61.53 and 62.32, respectively. Overall, traders should exercise caution in overbought pairs and look for potential buying opportunities in oversold conditions.

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