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Forex Report: Geopolitical tensions rise as Xi Jinping calls for AI cooperation, key UK economic data ahead, EUR/USD surges 0.28%

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# Forex Report: Geopolitical tensions rise as Xi Jinping calls for AI cooperation, key UK economic data ahead, EUR/USD surges 0.28%

## Forex and Global News
In today’s forex landscape, significant geopolitical tensions and economic indicators are influencing market sentiment. The Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for AI cooperation at the SCO summit highlights China’s ambition to position itself as a global peacemaker, amidst ongoing geopolitical strains. Meanwhile, Thailand faces potential political chaos following the removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, creating uncertainty that could impact the Thai Baht.

In the U.S., attention is focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, with heightened interest following last month’s revisions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates increasing bearish sentiment towards the USD, which may contribute to its current volatility.

Gold prices are on the rise, nearing $3,480, supported by thin trading conditions due to U.S. and Canadian market closures for Labor Day, which may further bolster demand for safe-haven assets.

As for major currencies, the DXY is currently at 97.70, reflecting a daily change of -0.1359%. The overall market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring both economic data and geopolitical developments.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-09-01 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.1%
2025-09-01 02:00 🇬🇧 Medium Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% 0.1%
2025-09-01 03:15 🇪🇺 Medium HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.3 52.1
2025-09-01 03:30 🇨🇭 Medium procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 46.9
2025-09-01 03:45 🇪🇺 Medium HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.8
2025-09-01 03:50 🇪🇺 Medium HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.9
2025-09-01 03:55 🇪🇺 Medium HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.9
2025-09-01 04:00 🇪🇺 Medium HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 50.5
2025-09-01 04:30 🇬🇧 Medium S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 47.3
2025-09-01 05:00 🇪🇺 Medium Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.2%
2025-09-01 08:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2025-09-01 13:30 🇪🇺 Medium ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2025-09-01 21:30 🇦🇺 Medium Current Account (Q2) -15.9B
2025-09-01 23:35 🇯🇵 Medium 10-Year JGB Auction

On September 1, 2025, several key economic indicators are poised to influence FX markets, particularly the GBP and EUR.

For the GBP, the Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) for August reported a YoY increase of 2.1%, surpassing expectations. However, the MoM figure showed a slight decline of -0.1%, falling short of the forecasted 0.1%. This mixed data may lead to volatility in GBP trading, reflecting concerns about the housing market’s momentum.

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI significantly outperformed expectations at 54.3, compared to the forecast of 52.1, indicating robust manufacturing activity. Conversely, the upcoming PMIs from Italy, France, and Germany, all expected around the 49.9 mark, suggest stagnation in manufacturing, which could weigh on the euro. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 50.5, a critical threshold separating expansion from contraction.

Additionally, ECB speeches from Schnabel and Lagarde later in the day may provide insights into monetary policy, influencing EUR valuations. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments as they assess potential impacts on currency movements, particularly the GBP and EUR against other major currencies.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1725 0.2822 0.7353 0.1315 2.6371 2.3710 10.33 12.67 5.8170 1.1668 1.1513 1.1028 58.61 0.0012
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 147.11 -0.0075 -0.2394 -0.0720 -2.4295 3.2692 -1.7957 -6.2970 1.5315 146.93 145.55 149.05 44.24 0.0491
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3522 0.1407 0.3211 0.0804 2.3629 -0.2563 5.6880 7.7528 2.7023 1.3501 1.3444 1.3038 57.38 0.0014
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.7996 -0.1499 -0.5176 -0.3316 -1.7570 -2.0026 -10.1209 -11.4743 -5.5895 0.8022 0.8134 0.8537 42.56 -0.0003
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6542 -0.0306 0.7112 0.8805 1.7562 0.6709 4.3384 5.1769 -3.7347 0.6520 0.6478 0.6387 54.26 -0.0001
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3748 0.0582 -0.6173 -0.5843 -0.7866 0.2720 -4.5085 -4.1938 1.9193 1.3731 1.3772 1.4032 49.66 0.0022
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5896 -0.0170 0.6418 0.5215 0.1241 -2.5114 4.1405 4.5443 -5.8645 0.5964 0.5962 0.5834 43.03 -0.0027

Currently, the analysis of key FX pairs reveals a generally neutral market sentiment, with no pairs exhibiting extreme overbought or oversold conditions. The EUR/USD pair, with an RSI of 58.61 and a positive MACD at 0.0012, indicates a stable bullish trend, though it remains below the overbought threshold. Similarly, GBP/USD shows a healthy RSI of 57.38 and a positive MACD, suggesting continued upward momentum.

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair, with an RSI of 44.24 and a positive MACD of 0.0491, indicates a lack of strong bullish sentiment, while USD/CHF and NZD/USD are leaning towards bearish conditions, as evidenced by their lower RSIs (42.56 and 43.03, respectively) and negative MACDs. Overall, the market is characterized by a cautious approach, with potential for shifts depending on forthcoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8668 0.1386 0.3822 0.0231 0.2382 2.6078 4.3809 4.5357 3.0041 0.8640 0.8562 0.8452 45.17 -0.0002
EUR/JPY EURJPY 172.45 0.2826 0.4848 0.0453 0.1318 5.7081 8.3630 5.5476 7.4207 171.36 167.46 164.08 43.64 0.1652
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9373 0.1282 0.1978 -0.2204 0.8218 0.3050 -0.8285 -0.2766 -0.1183 0.9356 0.9356 0.9387 42.68 0.0003
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7925 0.3415 0.0441 -0.7167 0.8887 1.7137 5.7709 7.1300 9.9396 1.7895 1.7771 1.7250 50.93 0.0024
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 198.94 0.1389 0.1112 0.0216 -0.1034 3.0238 3.8157 0.9858 4.2979 198.31 195.56 194.08 48.38 0.2350
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0813 -0.0092 -0.1809 -0.2362 0.5879 -2.2386 -4.9874 -4.5926 -2.9963 1.0828 1.0928 1.1108 45.90 0.0005
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 96.20 -0.0488 0.4406 0.7710 -0.7501 3.9282 2.4593 -1.4597 -2.2924 95.75 94.21 95.15 44.95 -0.0327
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1093 -0.0090 0.0550 0.3442 1.6103 3.2459 0.1975 0.5990 2.3434 1.0924 1.0861 1.0950 75.96 0.0048
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 183.98 0.1551 0.2876 0.2786 -0.6712 5.4031 9.2771 5.8592 7.5544 183.23 179.08 174.83 64.47 0.1714
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 86.71 -0.0208 0.3948 0.4457 -2.3031 0.6664 2.2621 -2.0537 -4.4415 87.62 86.72 86.89 31.12 -0.4086

Current analysis of the selected FX pairs indicates a predominantly neutral to bearish sentiment. Notably, AUD/NZD is approaching overbought territory with an RSI of 75.96, suggesting potential profit-taking or a reversal. Conversely, NZD/JPY is deeply oversold at an RSI of 31.12, coupled with a negative MACD, indicating further downside risk. The remaining pairs, including EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY, exhibit RSI values between 40-50, reflecting a lack of momentum. MACD readings are mixed, with some pairs like EUR/JPY showing positive momentum, while others remain bearish. Overall, caution is advised for traders navigating these conditions.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.11 -0.0328 0.1828 0.3716 1.1059 5.0254 12.85 16.45 20.64 40.43 39.62 37.79 81.51 0.1903
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.58 -0.3926 -0.2226 0.8702 -3.4561 -1.3993 -4.8142 -6.3081 -0.8242 17.74 17.98 18.18 47.63 -0.0409
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.26 -0.0929 -0.5242 -0.3090 -1.4661 -0.7385 -4.1877 -5.5040 -4.8097 32.44 32.71 33.39 43.59 -0.0248
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.4341 -0.2453 -1.2861 -0.7609 -3.5816 -0.8571 -9.3960 -14.4209 -7.6865 9.5755 9.6097 10.17 43.14 -0.0186
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 10.03 -0.2198 -0.9124 -0.3183 -2.8041 -0.2649 -9.5118 -11.4148 -4.4340 10.16 10.22 10.65 32.80 -0.0218
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.3680 -0.2694 -0.7026 -0.0932 -2.5423 -2.2323 -9.2989 -11.1458 -5.3983 6.3985 6.4874 6.7844 47.40 -0.0038
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.63 -0.1405 -0.1703 0.1803 -1.2612 -2.9460 -9.2725 -9.7198 -6.0875 18.72 19.08 19.74 53.75 -0.0214
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6319 -0.3512 -0.6793 0.0094 -2.9349 -2.1710 -7.2673 -11.5696 -6.0407 3.6471 3.7008 3.8560 51.08 -0.0021
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 337.20 -0.5688 -0.8305 0.1214 -3.6238 -4.1585 -10.1684 -14.6344 -4.8081 341.20 348.59 367.30 50.11 -0.8247
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.83 -0.3521 -1.0220 -0.5671 -3.1116 -3.9661 -11.6994 -13.7686 -7.7470 21.07 21.51 22.66 50.47 -0.0303

In the current analysis, USD/TRY is significantly overbought with an RSI of 81.51, coupled with a positive MACD of 0.1903, indicating strong bullish momentum. This suggests potential for a corrective pullback. Conversely, USD/NOK is nearing oversold conditions with an RSI of 32.80 and a negative MACD, reflecting bearish sentiment. Other pairs, such as USD/ZAR and USD/THB, show neutral RSI levels, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. MA crossovers across these pairs suggest mixed trends, warranting cautious trading strategies. Traders should monitor USD/TRY for potential reversals while considering opportunities in the oversold NOK.

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