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Forex Report: Geopolitical tensions weigh on GBP, Spanish CPI looms, USD/JPY plunges as risk aversion rises

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# Forex Report: Geopolitical tensions weigh on GBP, Spanish CPI looms, USD/JPY plunges as risk aversion rises

## Forex and Global News
In today’s forex market, key currencies are reacting to geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts. The GBP is under pressure, with GBP/USD slipping to seven-week lows below 1.3350 as traders brace for the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has also declined, closing the week below the 1.1700 mark, retreating from its mid-September peak of 1.1918.

Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, reaching record highs near $3,790, driven by strong demand amid economic uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring US economic data to gauge the sustainability of this rally.

Geopolitical events are impacting market sentiment, particularly with Russia’s recent military actions in Ukraine, which may influence oil prices and broader economic stability. Additionally, the ongoing discussions regarding US government funding and potential shutdowns are adding to market volatility.

The DXY is currently at 97.95, reflecting a daily change of -0.0092%. Overall, market participants remain cautious, balancing economic indicators against geopolitical developments.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-09-29 01:30 🇯🇵 Medium BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks
2025-09-29 03:00 🇪🇺 Medium Spanish CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.9% 3.1%
2025-09-29 03:00 🇪🇺 Medium Spanish HICP (YoY) (Sep) 3.0% 3.0%
2025-09-29 05:00 🇪🇺 Medium German Buba President Nagel Speaks
2025-09-29 05:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2025-09-29 07:30 🇺🇸 Medium Fed Waller Speaks
2025-09-29 08:00 🇬🇧 Medium MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
2025-09-29 08:00 🇪🇺 Medium ECB’s Lane Speaks
2025-09-29 10:00 🇺🇸 Medium Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%
2025-09-29 13:15 🇺🇸 High U.S. President Trump Speaks
2025-09-29 13:30 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2025-09-29 18:00 🇺🇸 Medium FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2025-09-29 19:50 🇯🇵 Medium Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) -0.7%
2025-09-29 21:30 🇦🇺 Medium Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug) 2.5%
2025-09-29 21:30 🇨🇳 Medium Chinese Composite PMI (Sep)
2025-09-29 21:30 🇨🇳 High Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.6
2025-09-29 21:30 🇨🇳 Medium Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.3
2025-09-29 21:45 🇨🇳 Medium Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Sep) 50.2
2025-09-29 21:45 🇨🇳 Medium Caixin Services PMI (Sep) 52.3

On September 29, 2025, several economic events are poised to impact FX markets, particularly concerning the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), and US Dollar (USD).

At 03:00 ET, the Spanish CPI data is expected to reveal a YoY increase of 3.1%, but a lower actual reading of 2.9% could signal easing inflation pressures in the Eurozone, potentially weakening the EUR against its peers. The Spanish HICP is forecasted to align at 3.0%, which may confirm this trend.

Key speeches from ECB officials, including President Nagel and Isabel Schnabel at 05:00 ET, alongside Chief Economist Lane at 08:00 ET, could provide insights into future monetary policy, influencing EUR volatility.

In the US, pending home sales data at 10:00 ET is anticipated to show a modest increase of 0.2%. Any deviation from this forecast could affect the USD’s strength. Additionally, speeches from FOMC members, including Williams and Bostic later in the day, will be scrutinized for hints on interest rate trajectories.

Lastly, JPY could react to the anticipated industrial production decline of -0.7% at 19:50 ET, which may heighten concerns over Japan’s economic outlook. Overall, these events are critical for traders navigating currency fluctuations today.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1736 0.2392 -0.6641 -0.0081 0.4660 -0.4341 8.7071 12.78 4.9997 1.1683 1.1594 1.1149 47.57 0.0020
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 148.67 -0.5286 0.7188 0.3910 1.2835 3.3894 -0.7404 -5.3002 2.4801 147.70 146.39 148.61 60.41 0.2849
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3448 0.3208 -0.5655 -0.1244 -0.4673 -2.0582 4.0620 7.1631 0.2548 1.3471 1.3491 1.3121 43.09 -0.0009
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.7957 -0.2507 0.5395 -0.0666 -0.7348 0.3759 -9.9276 -11.9060 -5.9723 0.8012 0.8078 0.8449 50.86 -0.0023
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6571 0.2900 -0.4062 -0.2778 0.5909 -0.1077 4.4743 5.6431 -4.6687 0.6543 0.6520 0.6402 46.26 0.0013
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3919 -0.1578 0.5774 0.9940 1.2306 2.3050 -2.6105 -3.0021 3.2896 1.3787 1.3761 1.4005 61.67 0.0022
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5792 0.2770 -1.1097 -1.0136 -1.5818 -4.9307 1.3670 2.7003 -8.5165 0.5913 0.5955 0.5839 31.84 -0.0028

Analyzing the current technical indicators for key FX pairs reveals mixed conditions. The EUR/USD shows a neutral RSI at 47.57, with MACD near zero, indicating a lack of momentum. This suggests a potential consolidation phase rather than overbought or oversold extremes.

In contrast, the NZD/USD is notably oversold with an RSI of 31.84 and a negative MACD, indicating bearish pressure that may present a buying opportunity if a reversal occurs.

The USD/JPY and USD/CAD are approaching bullish territory, with RSIs of 60.41 and 61.67, respectively, and positive MACD readings. However, they are not yet in overbought conditions, suggesting room for further upward movement.

The GBP/USD remains weak, with an RSI of 43.09 and a negative MACD, highlighting continued bearish sentiment. Overall, traders should monitor these indicators closely for potential reversals or continuations in the coming sessions.

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8724 -0.0802 -0.1362 0.0860 0.9092 1.6357 4.4378 5.2111 4.6671 0.8671 0.8590 0.8491 65.99 0.0021
EUR/JPY EURJPY 174.42 -0.2990 0.0201 0.3481 1.7175 2.9252 7.8706 6.7515 7.5811 172.52 169.65 165.40 60.02 0.6775
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9334 -0.0214 -0.1679 -0.1134 -0.3108 -0.1113 -2.1532 -0.6916 -1.3215 0.9358 0.9359 0.9390 38.80 -0.0008
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7861 -0.0504 -0.2452 0.2768 -0.1113 -0.3420 4.0663 6.7475 10.15 1.7857 1.7778 1.7399 47.84 -0.0009
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 199.92 -0.2126 0.1573 0.2653 0.8057 1.2550 3.2890 1.4838 2.7602 198.94 197.46 194.76 47.25 0.2943
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0699 0.0655 -0.0243 -0.1680 -1.2050 -1.7124 -6.3061 -5.5984 -5.7290 1.0791 1.0895 1.1062 30.67 -0.0035
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 97.65 -0.2442 0.2680 0.0758 1.8418 3.2656 3.6624 0.0277 -2.3393 96.60 95.41 95.07 60.45 0.4277
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1342 0.0088 0.6880 0.7202 2.1840 5.0769 3.0434 2.8571 4.1802 1.1055 1.0942 1.0964 82.19 0.0072
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 186.84 -0.2775 0.1823 0.4598 2.0454 3.0226 10.24 7.5030 9.0077 184.33 181.25 176.14 64.38 0.8807
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 86.08 -0.2515 -0.4096 -0.6383 -0.3335 -1.7228 0.6066 -2.7597 -6.2564 87.37 87.17 86.70 34.20 -0.1773

In the current analysis of selected FX pairs, AUD/NZD exhibits overbought conditions with an RSI of 82.19, suggesting potential for a corrective pullback. The positive MACD indicates ongoing bullish momentum, but caution is warranted. Conversely, GBP/CHF is notably oversold with an RSI of 30.67 and a negative MACD, highlighting possible recovery opportunities. EUR/CHF also shows weakness with an RSI of 38.80, indicating bearish sentiment. Other pairs like EUR/GBP and CHF/JPY remain neutral, with RSIs below 70, suggesting stability. Traders should monitor these conditions closely for potential reversals or continuations in trend.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.50 -0.1403 0.1939 0.2200 0.8714 4.1992 9.3215 17.54 21.43 40.96 40.21 38.45 81.41 0.1557
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.26 -0.4976 0.1660 -0.3604 -2.3990 -2.5337 -6.6093 -8.0373 0.4728 17.61 17.74 18.12 39.32 -0.0887
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 32.24 0.0621 1.1292 1.1292 -0.0620 -0.5552 -5.6758 -5.5626 -0.3893 32.22 32.45 33.17 54.27 -0.0856
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.3793 -0.3506 0.4793 -0.3803 -1.0450 -0.7640 -6.3037 -14.9180 -7.2999 9.4999 9.5437 10.01 56.06 -0.0336
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 9.9591 -0.0893 0.7950 0.3802 -1.0423 -1.1925 -4.8225 -12.0813 -5.4163 10.09 10.11 10.53 50.87 -0.0478
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.3629 -0.2148 0.7239 0.0661 -0.4169 0.5286 -7.9388 -11.2170 -4.6214 6.3902 6.4406 6.7117 53.69 -0.0127
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.31 -0.2494 -0.1733 -0.5727 -1.7991 -2.2591 -9.9056 -11.2324 -6.6335 18.62 18.83 19.56 34.60 -0.0786
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6346 -0.2771 0.8608 0.0964 -0.3407 1.0019 -6.1712 -11.5038 -4.9057 3.6436 3.6718 3.8110 56.01 -0.0056
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 332.68 -0.4357 0.8772 0.0608 -1.9554 -1.7849 -10.5717 -15.7779 -6.0223 337.94 343.68 361.61 51.81 -1.8712
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.69 -0.1641 0.9288 0.0242 -1.3626 -1.2967 -10.3829 -14.3564 -7.9691 20.93 21.24 22.34 51.78 -0.0906

In the current forex landscape, USD/TRY is significantly overbought with an RSI of 81.41, indicating potential for a price correction. The positive MACD suggests bullish momentum, yet the extreme RSI raises caution for traders. Conversely, USD/ZAR shows oversold conditions with an RSI of 39.32 and a negative MACD, signaling potential for a rebound. Other pairs like USD/THB and USD/SEK maintain neutral RSI levels, indicating a lack of immediate volatility. Overall, traders should closely monitor USD/TRY for reversal signals while considering buying opportunities in USD/ZAR as it approaches oversold territory.

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