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Forex Report: Investor Caution Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, Key Economic Events Impact SEK, USD/JPY Gains Momentum

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# Forex Report: Investor Caution Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, Key Economic Events Impact SEK, USD/JPY Gains Momentum

## Forex and Global News
In the forex market today, investor sentiment remains cautious as traders await key inflation data from the U.S., which could influence future monetary policy. The DXY is currently at 97.93, reflecting a slight increase of 0.0869%. The euro (EUR) and British pound (GBP) are facing headwinds due to geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent events in Israel and Russia’s drone attacks in Poland, which have heightened risks in the region.

Gold prices are stable around $3,650, lacking direction as traders prepare for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which could impact safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, oil prices have seen a rally due to geopolitical concerns, but a significant build in U.S. inventories has capped further gains.

Overall, the market is navigating a complex landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, with expectations of U.S. rate cuts and ongoing pressure from political developments in Europe and Asia influencing currency dynamics.

## Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (New York).

Date Time Cur Imp Event Actual Forecast
2025-09-11 02:00 🇸🇪 Medium CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.4% 0.8%
2025-09-11 02:00 🇸🇪 Medium CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.1% 1.1%
2025-09-11 04:00 🇺🇸 Medium IEA Monthly Report
2025-09-11 07:00 🇺🇸 Medium OPEC Monthly Report
2025-09-11 08:00 🇧🇷 Medium Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.3%
2025-09-11 08:00 🇧🇷 Medium Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 0.8%
2025-09-11 08:15 🇪🇺 High Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) 2.00%
2025-09-11 08:15 🇪🇺 Medium ECB Marginal Lending Facility
2025-09-11 08:15 🇪🇺 Medium ECB Monetary Policy Statement
2025-09-11 08:15 🇪🇺 High ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 2.15%
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 Medium Continuing Jobless Claims 1,950K
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 High Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 Medium Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.1%
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%
2025-09-11 08:30 🇺🇸 High Initial Jobless Claims 235K
2025-09-11 08:45 🇪🇺 High ECB Press Conference
2025-09-11 10:15 🇪🇺 Medium ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2025-09-11 13:00 🇺🇸 High 30-Year Bond Auction
2025-09-11 14:00 🇺🇸 Medium Federal Budget Balance (Aug) -305.7B
2025-09-11 16:30 🇺🇸 Medium Fed’s Balance Sheet
2025-09-11 18:30 🇳🇿 Medium Business NZ PMI (Aug)
2025-09-11 18:45 🇳🇿 Medium Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

On September 11, 2025, key economic events are set to influence FX markets, particularly concerning the SEK, USD, and EUR.

The Swedish Krona (SEK) will be impacted by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August at 02:00 ET. The month-over-month CPI showed a surprising decline of -0.4%, significantly underperforming the forecast of 0.8%. This unexpected drop may exert downward pressure on the SEK as it raises concerns about inflationary trends in Sweden. The year-over-year CPI met expectations at 1.1%, providing some stability.

For the Euro (EUR), the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy at 08:15 ET, with a widely anticipated interest rate decision of 2.15%. The subsequent press conference at 08:45 ET, led by ECB President Lagarde, will be crucial for market sentiment. Any hints of future policy directions could lead to volatility in the EUR.

In the U.S. market, a series of inflation data, including CPI and Core CPI for August at 08:30 ET, will be closely monitored. Expectations are set at 2.9% for CPI and 3.1% for Core CPI. Any deviations from these forecasts could significantly impact the USD, influencing Federal Reserve policy outlook.

## Major FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar EURUSD 1.1697 -0.0683 0.3439 0.3135 0.6761 0.8340 7.7504 12.40 6.1339 1.1665 1.1540 1.1075 57.30 0.0018
USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen USDJPY 147.78 0.3020 -0.3997 -0.1338 -0.2316 3.2040 -0.1129 -5.8683 3.9006 147.41 145.90 148.82 50.48 0.1124
GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 1.3515 -0.1625 0.5246 0.5462 0.5935 -0.8269 4.2953 7.6970 3.3235 1.3470 1.3466 1.3072 57.61 0.0012
USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF 0.7994 0.0876 -0.7117 -0.5474 -1.5275 -1.1867 -9.4287 -11.4964 -5.5775 0.8019 0.8117 0.8503 42.54 -0.0017
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar AUDUSD 0.6615 -0.0604 1.4259 1.0788 1.5442 1.3327 5.2102 6.3505 -0.5756 0.6523 0.6496 0.6390 77.39 0.0022
USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar USDCAD 1.3878 0.1443 0.4560 0.6155 0.7572 2.0704 -3.7974 -3.2879 1.9721 1.3754 1.3763 1.4023 47.47 0.0019
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar NZDUSD 0.5934 -0.2018 1.4168 0.8994 -0.1094 -2.1632 4.0485 5.2181 -3.5137 0.5939 0.5962 0.5835 66.88 -0.0006

Analyzing the current conditions of key FX pairs, we observe notable trends in overbought and oversold territories. The AUD/USD pair is exhibiting overbought conditions with an RSI of 77.39, suggesting potential weakness ahead as it approaches the upper threshold. The positive MACD indicates bullish momentum, but caution is warranted.

In contrast, the USD/CHF pair is leaning towards oversold territory with an RSI of 42.54 and a negative MACD, which could signal further downside risk.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both show neutral RSI values around 57, with MACDs slightly positive, indicating a balanced market sentiment without immediate overbought or oversold signals.

The USD/JPY and USD/CAD pairs remain in neutral territory as well, with RSIs around 50, suggesting indecision among traders. Overall, the AUD/USD stands out as the most overbought, while USD/CHF appears the most vulnerable to further declines.

## Cross FX Group

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
EUR/GBP EURGBP 0.8651 0.0810 -0.2203 -0.2721 0.0578 1.6282 3.2672 4.3307 2.6910 0.8659 0.8568 0.8466 50.53 0.0007
EUR/JPY EURJPY 172.82 0.2169 -0.0792 0.1565 0.4289 4.0546 7.6084 5.7722 10.26 171.96 168.32 164.53 57.27 0.4055
EUR/CHF EURCHF 0.9348 0.0214 -0.3911 -0.2614 -0.8927 -0.3942 -2.4278 -0.5426 0.1886 0.9355 0.9361 0.9389 41.28 -0.0005
EUR/AUD EURAUD 1.7685 0.0226 -1.0447 -0.7347 -0.8271 -0.4677 2.4392 5.6957 6.7690 1.7886 1.7766 1.7317 12.98 -0.0019
GBP/JPY GBPJPY 199.74 0.1364 0.1369 0.4248 0.3779 2.3814 4.2000 1.3924 7.3737 198.57 196.43 194.30 58.44 0.3194
GBP/CHF GBPCHF 1.0805 -0.0647 -0.1663 0.0130 -0.9406 -1.9599 -5.5144 -4.6632 -2.4247 1.0802 1.0926 1.1093 42.99 -0.0015
AUD/JPY AUDJPY 97.71 0.1979 0.9714 0.8911 1.2634 4.5453 5.0477 0.0860 3.2614 96.13 94.73 95.03 88.85 0.3286
AUD/NZD AUDNZD 1.1146 0.1258 -0.0018 0.1662 1.6451 3.5643 1.1081 1.0796 3.0320 1.0976 1.0889 1.0951 66.75 0.0047
CHF/JPY CHFJPY 184.87 0.2119 0.3261 0.4344 1.3569 4.4769 10.30 6.3741 10.05 183.80 179.79 175.23 63.21 0.5375
NZD/JPY NZDJPY 87.66 0.0788 0.9931 0.7459 -0.3558 0.9629 3.9144 -0.9794 0.2287 87.56 86.97 86.77 75.86 -0.0728

In the current analysis of key FX pairs, EUR/AUD is significantly oversold with an RSI of 12.98 and a bearish MACD, indicating potential for a corrective rebound. Conversely, AUD/JPY is in an overbought condition at an RSI of 88.85, supported by a positive MACD, suggesting caution for long positions. Additionally, NZD/JPY’s RSI of 75.86 indicates overbought territory, though its bearish MACD may signal weakening momentum. Other pairs like EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY show neutral conditions, while EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF remain in oversold territory, warranting close monitoring for potential reversals. Overall, traders should be vigilant regarding these dynamics.

## Exotics and Emerging

Name Symbol Price Daily (%) 5D (%) 1W (%) 1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) YTD (%) 12M (%) MA50 MA100 MA200 RSI MACD
USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY 41.29 0.0807 0.1067 0.3229 1.4321 4.8125 12.57 16.96 21.29 40.66 39.87 38.05 87.27 0.1816
USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand USDZAR 17.53 0.2700 -1.2004 -0.6962 -1.2460 -1.2622 -4.0664 -6.5761 -2.2651 17.71 17.87 18.16 44.34 -0.0412
USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht USDTHB 31.78 0.2524 -1.5184 -1.5184 -2.0043 -1.7316 -5.6413 -6.9100 -5.4982 32.37 32.60 33.29 20.67 -0.1531
USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona USDSEK 9.3549 0.1467 -1.0397 -0.7165 -2.8940 -0.8195 -8.2093 -15.1393 -9.5947 9.5584 9.5819 10.10 35.91 -0.0545
USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone USDNOK 9.9345 0.1351 -1.3617 -1.0122 -2.8034 0.1724 -6.9906 -12.2984 -8.1080 10.15 10.17 10.60 27.05 -0.0502
USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone USDDKK 6.3839 0.0831 -0.3101 -0.2671 -0.6293 -0.7128 -7.1108 -10.9240 -5.7142 6.3975 6.4697 6.7562 45.99 -0.0098
USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso USDMXN 18.63 0.1980 -0.5356 -0.4335 -0.1646 -1.3648 -7.2567 -9.7261 -7.2870 18.69 18.97 19.67 36.61 -0.0140
USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty USDPLN 3.6474 0.1840 0.0606 0.0458 -0.4345 -0.7456 -5.2670 -11.1922 -6.0371 3.6467 3.6897 3.8373 47.18 -0.0069
USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint USDHUF 336.30 0.1919 -0.2231 -0.2471 -1.2045 -2.5644 -8.6067 -14.8625 -6.5963 340.22 346.73 365.16 45.81 -1.4982
USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna USDCZK 20.88 0.2064 -0.3855 -0.3142 -0.7878 -2.1960 -9.4146 -13.5691 -8.1021 21.02 21.40 22.53 43.47 -0.0748

In the current analysis of key FX pairs, USD/TRY is significantly overbought with an RSI of 87.27 and a positive MACD of 0.1816, indicating strong bullish momentum. Conversely, USD/THB, USD/NOK, and USD/SEK are in oversold territory with RSIs of 20.67, 27.05, and 35.91, respectively, coupled with negative MACD readings, suggesting potential for upward corrections. The moving averages for USD/TRY indicate a sustained bullish trend, while the others show bearish pressure. Traders should closely monitor these conditions, particularly for potential reversals in the oversold pairs as market sentiment shifts.

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