Forex Update: Geopolitical Tensions Rise, NZD/USD Gains 0.28% Amid Data Releases
📰 Forex and Global Market News
**Market Overview:**
Today’s forex market exhibited notable movements, primarily driven by evolving geopolitical tensions and economic data releases. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 98.68, reflecting a modest increase of 0.1390%. The Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP) showed strength against the USD, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) softened amid a rebound in risk sentiment.
**Key News Items:**
The EUR/USD pair has gained for three consecutive days, trading above 1.1650, supported by positive sentiment following French Prime Minister Lecornu’s survival of no-confidence votes. The EUR/JPY also rose, reflecting a 0.20% increase as the Yen weakened. Conversely, the USD/CHF remains capped below 0.7975, hindered by escalating US-China tensions. The GBP/USD pair is recovering from recent lows, with forecasts suggesting potential movement towards 1.3500 amid a weaker USD.
Geopolitical events, particularly the US’s stance on tariffs affecting Switzerland, are contributing to market volatility. Additionally, gold prices continue to soar, maintaining a record-setting advance above the $4,200 mark, influenced by safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties.
**Closing:**
Overall, the forex market is navigating through a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and central bank sentiments, with the DXY reflecting the ongoing dynamics.
📅 Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (ET)
| Date | Time | Cur | Imp | Event | Actual | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | High | GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Trade Balance (Aug) | -21.18B | -21.80B |
| 2025-10-16 | 02:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) | -8.29B | |
| 2025-10-16 | 04:30 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | BOE Credit Conditions Survey | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 05:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | Trade Balance (Aug) | 1.0B | 6.9B |
| 2025-10-16 | 06:10 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.3% | |
| 2025-10-16 | 08:15 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | Housing Starts (Sep) | 258.0K | |
| 2025-10-16 | 08:30 | 🇺🇸 | High | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 8.6 | |
| 2025-10-16 | 08:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Philly Fed Employment (Oct) | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 09:00 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 09:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 09:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Fed Waller Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | |
| 2025-10-16 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) | 0.3% | |
| 2025-10-16 | 10:45 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 10:45 | 🇬🇧 | Medium | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 11:45 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 12:00 | 🇺🇸 | High | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.300M | |
| 2025-10-16 | 12:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 12:00 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 13:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 13:30 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | BoC Gov Macklem Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 16:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.120M | |
| 2025-10-16 | 16:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ||
| 2025-10-16 | 18:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks |
**Overview:**
Today’s economic calendar features several high-impact events, particularly from the UK and the US, with key releases scheduled for 02:00 ET and 08:30 ET. The focus will be on GDP, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which could significantly influence currency movements.
**Key Releases:**
1. **UK GDP (MoM) (Aug)**: Actual: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.1% – No surprise; indicates stable economic performance.
2. **UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)**: Actual: 0.4%, Forecast: 0.2% – A positive surprise, suggesting stronger manufacturing activity.
3. **UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)**: Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.2% – Another significant beat, reflecting robust sector growth.
4. **US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)**: Forecast: 8.6 – A key indicator for US manufacturing sentiment, with actual data pending.
**FX Impact:**
The GBP is likely to strengthen against the USD and EUR due to the better-than-expected industrial and manufacturing data, potentially pushing GBP/USD and GBP/EUR higher. Conversely, the upcoming US data, particularly the Philadelphia Fed Index, will be closely watched for any surprises that could affect USD pairs, especially USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Traders should remain vigilant for volatility following these releases.
💱 Major Currency Pairs
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar | EURUSD | 1.1654 | +0.0257 | +0.7570 | +0.1894 | -0.9328 | +0.3316 | +2.2569 | +11.99 | +7.0735 | 1.1692 | 1.1647 | 1.1233 | 48.86 | -0.0029 |
| USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen | USDJPY | 151.31 | +0.2697 | -1.0793 | -0.8947 | +2.6519 | +1.9348 | +6.6132 | -3.6186 | +1.4856 | 148.42 | 147.13 | 148.15 | 56.55 | 1.1582 |
| GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar | GBPUSD | 1.3425 | +0.1567 | +0.9023 | +0.1760 | -1.3061 | -0.0562 | +1.4433 | +6.9798 | +2.7482 | 1.3476 | 1.3493 | 1.3179 | 57.76 | -0.0037 |
| USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc | USDCHF | 0.7979 | +0.1758 | -1.0258 | -0.4492 | +0.4077 | -0.6203 | -1.9478 | -11.66 | -7.4941 | 0.8004 | 0.8036 | 0.8382 | 60.62 | 0.0011 |
| AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar | AUDUSD | 0.6509 | -0.0921 | -0.7970 | -1.1466 | -2.4577 | +0.1664 | +2.1340 | +4.6463 | -2.5902 | 0.6556 | 0.6536 | 0.6424 | 45.33 | -0.0016 |
| USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar | USDCAD | 1.4047 | +0.0071 | +0.2012 | +0.6621 | +1.9820 | +2.2649 | +1.3514 | -2.1101 | +1.9295 | 1.3856 | 1.3773 | 1.3976 | 72.69 | 0.0057 |
| NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar | NZDUSD | 0.5739 | +0.2796 | -0.2418 | -0.7692 | -3.8551 | -3.4540 | -3.3087 | +1.7605 | -5.2394 | 0.5866 | 0.5936 | 0.5848 | 44.69 | -0.0042 |
**Overview:**
The Majors FX group displays a mixed trend, with some pairs showing bullish momentum while others remain neutral to bearish. Overall, the U.S. Dollar exhibits strength against certain currencies, particularly with the USD/CAD nearing overbought territory.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/CAD**: Price at 1.4047, RSI at 72.69 indicates overbought conditions, while the MACD at 0.0057 signals bullish momentum. Traders should watch for potential resistance around 1.4100.
2. **USD/JPY**: Currently priced at 151.3140, with an RSI of 56.55 and a positive MACD of 1.1582, this pair reflects bullish sentiment. Support is seen near 150.80, with potential upside towards 152.00.
3. **GBP/USD**: Priced at 1.3425, the RSI at 57.76 and a negative MACD of -0.0037 suggest weakening momentum. A break below support at 1.3400 could signal further downside.
**Trading Implications:**
For USD/CAD, traders should be cautious of overbought conditions, while USD/JPY presents a bullish opportunity with strong support
🔀 Cross Currency Pairs
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | EURGBP | 0.8678 | -0.1151 | -0.1760 | +0.0012 | +0.3515 | +0.3585 | +0.7781 | +4.6563 | +4.1902 | 0.8677 | 0.8628 | 0.8518 | 44.70 | 0.0004 |
| EUR/JPY | EURJPY | 176.30 | +0.3095 | -0.3612 | -0.7080 | +1.6731 | +2.2527 | +9.0184 | +7.9021 | +8.6342 | 173.43 | 171.22 | 166.21 | 57.42 | 0.9388 |
| EUR/CHF | EURCHF | 0.9297 | +0.2156 | -0.2885 | -0.2543 | -0.5371 | -0.3056 | +0.2480 | -1.0852 | -0.9630 | 0.9358 | 0.9354 | 0.9388 | 36.42 | -0.0013 |
| EUR/AUD | EURAUD | 1.7904 | +0.1286 | +1.5703 | +1.3759 | +1.5680 | +0.1673 | +0.0794 | +7.0045 | +9.9228 | 1.7836 | 1.7814 | 1.7471 | 52.72 | -0.0013 |
| GBP/JPY | GBPJPY | 203.14 | +0.4306 | -0.1769 | -0.7107 | +1.3187 | +1.8878 | +8.1854 | +3.1193 | +4.2791 | 199.86 | 198.44 | 195.08 | 57.58 | 0.9925 |
| GBP/CHF | GBPCHF | 1.0713 | +0.3466 | -0.1082 | -0.2523 | -0.8817 | -0.6584 | -0.5182 | -5.4749 | -4.9347 | 1.0784 | 1.0837 | 1.1021 | 57.29 | -0.0018 |
| AUD/JPY | AUDJPY | 98.46 | +0.1831 | -1.8843 | -2.0532 | +0.1057 | +2.0881 | +8.9228 | +0.8615 | -1.1654 | 97.28 | 96.15 | 95.14 | 53.44 | 0.5227 |
| AUD/NZD | AUDNZD | 1.1341 | -0.3602 | -0.5559 | -0.3856 | +1.4473 | +3.7499 | +5.6825 | +2.8480 | +2.7907 | 1.1176 | 1.1012 | 1.0985 | 49.97 | 0.0055 |
| CHF/JPY | CHFJPY | 189.60 | +0.0908 | -0.0606 | -0.4482 | +2.2251 | +2.5692 | +8.7590 | +9.0963 | +9.6919 | 185.30 | 183.03 | 177.05 | 60.62 | 1.2547 |
| NZD/JPY | NZDJPY | 86.81 | +0.5572 | -1.3265 | -1.6674 | -1.3209 | -1.5950 | +3.0961 | -1.9373 | -3.8532 | 87.03 | 87.30 | 86.59 | 54.38 | 0.0381 |
**Overview:**
The Crosses FX group exhibits a mixed trend direction today, with some pairs showing bullish momentum while others remain neutral-bearish. The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with a balance of buying and selling pressures.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **GBP/JPY**: Currently at 203.1440, it shows strong bullish momentum with a MACD of 0.9925 and an RSI of 57.58, indicating potential upward movement.
2. **CHF/JPY**: Priced at 189.6050, it has a robust MACD of 1.2547 and an RSI of 60.62, suggesting continued bullish strength.
3. **EUR/CHF**: At 0.9297, it is underperforming with a MACD of -0.0013 and an RSI of 36.42, indicating bearish pressure.
**Trading Implications:**
Support levels are critical for EUR/CHF, which may face further declines if it breaks below recent lows.
🌍 Exotic and Emerging Market Currencies
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira | USDTRY | 41.85 | +0.0497 | +0.0677 | +0.2876 | +1.3148 | +3.7555 | +9.7196 | +18.54 | +22.39 | 41.26 | 40.58 | 38.87 | 96.52 | 0.1684 |
| USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand | USDZAR | 17.31 | -0.2006 | +0.6868 | +0.9191 | -0.2931 | -2.7638 | -7.8303 | -7.7549 | -1.8847 | 17.47 | 17.64 | 18.04 | 52.72 | -0.0495 |
| USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht | USDTHB | 32.51 | +0.0616 | -0.7934 | -0.1229 | +2.1684 | +0.1232 | -1.7231 | -4.7717 | -2.3430 | 32.25 | 32.38 | 33.04 | 62.83 | 0.1335 |
| USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona | USDSEK | 9.4517 | -0.1806 | -0.8416 | +0.2389 | +1.8653 | -2.8223 | -3.0810 | -14.26 | -9.2892 | 9.4527 | 9.5144 | 9.9036 | 66.77 | 0.0218 |
| USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone | USDNOK | 10.07 | -0.1963 | +0.0377 | +0.9605 | +2.5233 | -2.0628 | -4.6895 | -11.11 | -6.9968 | 10.04 | 10.07 | 10.44 | 66.93 | 0.0248 |
| USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone | USDDKK | 6.4099 | -0.0343 | -0.7019 | -0.1547 | +1.0187 | -0.2305 | -2.1691 | -10.56 | -6.4884 | 6.3842 | 6.4108 | 6.6609 | 67.17 | 0.0181 |
| USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso | USDMXN | 18.42 | -0.2145 | +0.1919 | +0.4612 | +0.3114 | -1.7807 | -7.5148 | -10.73 | -6.4808 | 18.54 | 18.71 | 19.43 | 55.00 | -0.0225 |
| USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty | USDPLN | 3.6476 | -0.0630 | -0.8850 | -0.2644 | +1.0441 | -0.4054 | -2.7921 | -11.19 | -7.4932 | 3.6396 | 3.6563 | 3.7815 | 64.29 | 0.0105 |
| USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint | USDHUF | 334.56 | -0.1781 | -0.9958 | -0.5381 | +1.0667 | -2.5938 | -6.4186 | -15.30 | -8.9682 | 335.81 | 340.62 | 357.60 | 60.95 | 0.6146 |
| USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna | USDCZK | 20.84 | +0.0010 | -1.0543 | -0.4320 | +0.8280 | -1.6628 | -4.9802 | -13.75 | -10.04 | 20.85 | 21.08 | 22.12 | 63.43 | 0.0428 |
**Overview:** The Exotic FX group shows mixed signals, with a bullish bias in some pairs and bearish tendencies in others. The USD/TRY stands out with extreme overbought conditions, while other pairs display more neutral momentum.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/TRY:** Price at 41.8508, RSI at 96.52 indicates extreme overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a reversal. MACD at 0.1684 supports bullish momentum but caution is warranted.
2. **USD/ZAR:** Price at 17.3097, RSI at 52.72 reflects a neutral-bullish stance. However, the MACD at -0.0495 indicates bearish momentum, signaling potential weakness.
3. **USD/THB:** Price at 32.5100, RSI at 62.83 suggests a bullish outlook, with MACD at 0.1335 reinforcing positive momentum.
**Trading Implications:** For USD/TRY, watch for resistance around 42.00; a break
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