European Session Crude Oil Report — 06 Oct 2026

**European Session Crude Oil Report — 05 Oct 2026 11:00 NY**

WTI crude holds at $90.86 in early European trade, testing the lower bounds of its Asian session range as the market digests a mixed overnight performance with Brent slightly firmer at $103.02. The Brent-WTI spread tightens to $12.16, pressuring European refinery margins as backwardation deepens across both benchmarks. Momentum remains bearish with WTI’s RSI at oversold 22.5, while Brent’s 38.9 RSI shows tentative stabilization after last week’s selloff.

Technicals dominate early action as WTI struggles below its EMA9 ($92.34) and EMA21 ($92.90), with the $89.46 pivot point acting as critical near-term support. Brent clings to parity with its EMA9 ($103.07) but faces resistance at the $103.07–$104.00 zone. The term structure signals persistent tightness despite recent price declines: WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 spread steepens to -10.8%, while Brent’s equivalent backwardation widens to -14.6%. Refiners eye the steepening curve for hedging opportunities, though physical buyers remain cautious amid softening demand signals from China’s PMI miss earlier this week.

Geopolitical tensions simmer beneath the price action. The Strait of Hormuz remains elevated with IRGC naval activity disrupting tanker traffic, while Bab-el-Mandeb sees VLCCs diverting via the Cape of Good Hope—adding $1.50–$2.00/bbl to freight costs. Suez and Malacca flows normalize, but the market prices in a 0.6 mb/d OPEC+ deficit as Saudi maintains full compliance and Iraq/Russia leak modest overproduction. US crude inventories hover near seasonal highs at 427.3 mb, though refinery runs at 92.5% suggest demand resilience ahead of winter.

The session’s pivot hinges on the NYMEX open, with traders watching whether WTI can defend $89.46 support or faces a retest of September’s $86.00 lows. Brent’s $101.80–$103.00 range is the battleground, with a break above $104.00 needed to shift momentum. European refiners monitor the Brent-WTI spread for arbitrage windows, though the current $12.16 level offers limited incentive for Atlantic Basin imports. Chokepoint risks and OPEC+ discipline underpin prices, but technical exhaustion may invite profit-taking if equities weaken post-US payrolls. Key levels: WTI S1 at $72.17 remains distant, but a close below $89.46 opens $86.00; Brent’s PP at $96.17 is the last defense before $82.16. The backwardation curve suggests physical tightness endures—any EIA draw later today could spark short-covering into the US session.