Economics
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Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T as reserves hit critical $348.5B level
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.23T (24.9%) from its 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $348.5B — be
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Mortgage rates climb to 6.49%, adding $41 to monthly payments on a $400k loan
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6 basis points this week to 6.49%, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan t
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US jobless claims dip to 208,000, signaling steady labor market
Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 208,000 last week, a 3.7% drop from the previous week, reflecting ongoing stabil
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10Y Breakeven Holds at 2.23% as Inflation Stays On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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HY spreads widen to 272 bps as risk appetite cools amid tightening regime
High-yield spreads rose 3 bps to 272 bps today, extending the week's 5 bps widening in a NORMAL but tightening regime, s
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HY spreads hold at 269 bps as markets await catalysts amid tightening trend
High-yield spreads remained flat at 269 bps today, holding in a NORMAL regime with tightening momentum, suggesting cauti
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10Y Breakeven Holds at 2.25% as Inflation Stays On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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10Y Breakeven Hits 2.24%, Inflation On Target, Up 1.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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10Y Yields Rise 12 Bps to 4.56% as Curve Steepens Further
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points this week to settle at 4.56%, extending its 2026 uptrend while the 2Y
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Mortgage rates dip to 6.43%, easing affordability slightly for homebuyers
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 6 basis points this week to 6.43%, offering modest relief to buyers as the $400,000
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US jobless claims dip slightly to 215,000 as labor market holds steady
Initial jobless claims edged down by 2,000 to 215,000 last week, marking a modest 0.9% decline as the labor market conti
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HY spreads tighten to 267bps as risk appetite extends into July
High-yield spreads tightened 5bps to 267bps (5th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, signaling sustained investor comfort wi
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Inflation Expectations Steady at 2.25%, Target Met
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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10Y Yield Climbs to 4.49% as Curve Steepens Slightly
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bp to 4.49% Tuesday, extending its weekly gain to 9 bps as the 2Y-10Y spread widened t
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HY spreads tighten to 274 bps as risk appetite holds steady
US high-yield spreads edged 1 bp tighter to 274 bps (11th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, with week-on-week compression
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Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.24%, Up 1.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th
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June Jobs Growth Slows to +57k, Unemployment Dips to 4.2% as Labor Market Cools
The U.S. added just 57,000 jobs in June 2026, well below the 3-month average of +111k, as private sector hiring (+49k) a
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Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T, reserves at critical $336.5B as QT drains liquidity
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.23T (24.9%) from its April 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $336.5
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Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.24%, Up 2bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If th