European Session Crude Oil Report — 11 Nov 2026

Crude oil markets edge lower in European trade as WTI hovers near $90.86 while Brent holds above $103, with both benchmarks extending losses from last week’s highs as technical weakness persists. The Brent-WTI spread remains elevated at $12.16, pressuring European refiners already grappling with tight heavy crude supply. Asian session trading saw prices consolidate within narrow ranges after Monday’s selloff, with WTI finding temporary support at its 50-day EMA ($90.23) while Brent tests its 9-day EMA ($103.07) as resistance.

The technical landscape shows WTI remains deeply oversold with an RSI(14) at 22.5, though prices continue to track below all key moving averages. Brent’s RSI at 38.9 suggests less extreme momentum but still reflects bearish pressure. Both benchmarks trade in steep backwardation, with WTI’s front-to-Jul27 spread at -10.8% and Brent’s at -14.6%, signaling persistent near-term supply concerns despite recent price declines. Pivot points place immediate resistance at $108.15 (WTI R1) and $117.04 (Brent R1), while support clusters at $72.17 (WTI S1) and $82.16 (Brent S1) loom as downside targets should selling accelerate.

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin physical market tightness, particularly in the Atlantic Basin. Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated, threatening 20 million barrels per day of flows, while Houthi attacks near Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCCs to divert via the Cape of Good Hope—adding seven days to voyage times. These disruptions compound structural supply deficits from OPEC+ cuts, with the group maintaining production restraint through December 2026. Saudi Arabia shows full compliance while Iraq and Russia produce slightly above quotas, leaving the market with a 0.6 million barrel per day deficit against demand.

Inventory dynamics reveal mixed signals: U.S. commercial crude stocks ticked up 0.9 million barrels last week, but refinery utilization at 92.5% and Cushing inventories at just 24.3 million barrels reflect robust operational demand. The strategic petroleum reserve sits at 39.7% capacity, limiting Washington’s ability to release additional supply. Meanwhile, backwardation steepens further along the Brent curve, with prompt contracts commanding a $14.91 premium to July 2027—a sign of persistent near-term scarcity despite recession fears weighing on long-dated prices.

Attention now turns to the NYMEX open at 14:30 CET, with traders watching whether WTI can defend its 50-day EMA support. The Brent-WTI spread’s resilience above $12 suggests European refiners continue absorbing costly Brent-linked barrels amid dwindling alternatives. Should WTI break below $89.46 (PP), accelerated selling toward $72.17 (S1) becomes likely, while Brent faces immediate resistance at its 9-day EMA—a breach above $103.07 potentially reigniting bullish momentum. Chokepoint risks and OPEC+ discipline remain key upside catalysts, though macroeconomic headwinds keep rallies in check.