European Session Crude Oil Report — 26 Oct 2026

Crude oil markets enter the European session with WTI hovering near $90.86 while Brent holds above $103, as the complex digests overnight Asian trading ranges between $90.12-$91.43 for WTI and $102.33-$103.88 for Brent. The Brent-WTI spread remains a focal point at $12.16, pressuring European refiners already facing tight margins amid elevated crude costs. Technical momentum remains bearish for WTI with the RSI at oversold 22.5, though Brent shows marginally more resilience at 38.9 as its EMA9 and EMA21 provide dynamic support.

WTI tests its pivot point at $89.46 after failing to sustain gains above the 50-day EMA at $90.23, while Brent flirts with its EMA9 at $103.07. The term structure signals persistent tightness with steep backwardation in both benchmarks — WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 spread sits at -10.8% and Brent’s at -14.6%, reflecting near-term supply concerns despite recessionary demand fears. Geopolitical tensions underpin the backwardation, with Hormuz chokepoint risks elevated after fresh IRGC tanker intercepts and Bab-el-Mandeb remaining under watch as Houthi attacks force VLCC reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope.

Supply-side pressures intensify as OPEC+ maintains cuts through December 2026, with the market facing a 0.6 mb/d deficit against call-on-OPEC demand. Saudi compliance stays at 100%, though Iraq and Russia continue slight overproduction. US crude inventories show minimal builds (+0.9 mb WoW), but refinery runs at 92.5% and Cushing stocks at 24.3 mb suggest adequate operational buffers. The SPR’s 39.7% capacity leaves limited room for additional releases.

Traders eye the NYMEX open at 14:30 CET for directional cues, with WTI’s immediate resistance at $92.34 (EMA9) and support at $89.46 (PP). Brent faces resistance at $103.07 (EMA9) and $104.50 (overnight high), with downside risks toward $101.63 (EMA21). The spread dynamics may tighten further if European refiners balk at Brent’s premium, though structural supply constraints in the Atlantic Basin limit downside. For the session, the technical setup favors range-bound action unless EIA data surprises or Middle East tensions escalate, with WTI’s oversold RSI hinting at potential consolidation. Key levels to watch include $89.46 and $92.90 for WTI, while Brent’s battle around $103 will dictate near-term momentum.