European Session Crude Oil Report — 12 Nov 2026

Crude oil markets trade mixed in the European session as Brent crude extends its overnight rebound while WTI struggles below key moving averages, with the Brent-WTI spread widening to $12.16 as European refiners face tightening North Sea supply. Brent tests $103.02 with a 0.75% daily gain, recovering from its Asian session low of $102.18, while WTI hovers at $90.86 after failing to hold above its 50-day EMA at $90.23. The spread between the benchmarks builds pressure on European complex margins as backwardation steepens across both curves, with Brent’s front-to-Jul27 gap now at -14.6% versus WTI’s -10.8%.

Technical positioning shows stark divergence between the contracts. WTI’s RSI at 22.5 signals extreme oversold conditions after seven straight sessions of declines, its price now 2.2% below the 21-day EMA at $92.90. Brent’s RSI at 38.9 holds nearer neutral territory, with the contract finding support at its 9-day EMA of $103.07. The pivot point framework shows WTI testing its PP at $89.46, with S1 at $72.17 the next major downside target should the level break, while Brent defends its R1 at $117.04 with the 50-day EMA at $97.21 acting as critical support.

Geopolitical tensions underpin Brent’s relative strength as Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval activity elevates Hormuz disruption risks, with 20 million bbl/d of flows exposed. VLCC diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add 7 days to voyage times as Houthi attacks persist at Bab-el-Mandeb, though Suez and Malacca transit remains unimpeded. These pressures compound structural tightness from OPEC+ cuts running through December 2026, with the group’s 26.8 mb/d output now 0.6 mb/d below call. Saudi compliance holds at 100% though Russian Urals exports show signs of creeping above quota.

The term structure signals persistent physical tightness as prompt Brent barrels command a $1.22 premium to second-month, with European refinery runs at 92.5% capacity drawing down inventories. Cushing stocks at 24.3 mb keep WTI backwardation in check, though the EIA’s 427.3 mb commercial stockpile remains below seasonal norms. The Brent-WTI spread at $12.16 incentivizes Atlantic Basin arbitrage flows, with US crude exports likely to test record highs near 4.5 mb/d in coming weeks.

Attention now turns to the NYMEX open at 14:30 CET, with traders watching whether WTI can reclaim its 50-day EMA at $90.23 to avert another leg lower. Brent’s ability to hold above $102.50 sets the stage for a retest of the October high at $105.78, though RSI divergence warns of fading momentum. For European refiners, the widening Brent-WTI spread pressures cracking margins already squeezed by rising natural gas costs, with prompt Brent timespreads suggesting no near-term relief. The session’s key inflection point remains WTI’s pivot at $89.46 – a sustained break opens the path to $87.00 support, while holding here could trigger short-covering into the US session.