European Session Crude Oil Report — 13 Oct 2026

Crude oil markets trade mixed in the European session as Brent holds above $103 while WTI struggles near $90.80, with the Brent-WTI spread widening to $12.16 as European refiners face tighter North Sea supply. The complex shows divergent momentum—Brent extends its overnight rebound from Asia’s $102.40-$103.20 range, buoyed by continued backwardation and geopolitical risk premiums, while WTI tests its 50-day EMA at $90.23 amid weaker US physical market signals. Technical positioning remains starkly oversold for WTI with RSI(14) at 22.5 versus Brent’s 38.9, though neither contract breaches key EMAs—Brent flirts with its 9-day EMA at $103.07 while WTI faces resistance at $92.34.

The term structure reinforces supply anxieties with Brent’s Oct26-Jul27 backwardation steepening to -14.6% versus WTI’s -10.8%, reflecting Atlantic Basin tightness as OPEC+ maintains cuts through December. Saudi compliance anchors the 0.6 mb/d global deficit while Russian Urals discounts narrow to $18/bbl under Brent, the smallest since March. Chokepoint risks compound structural tightness—Hormuz tensions remain elevated with IRGC naval activity disrupting 20M bbl/d flows, while Bab-el-Mandeb VLCC diversions add 7 days to Europe-Asia voyages. Cushing inventories at 24.3 mb keep WTI’s prompt spreads volatile ahead of NYMEX open, though refinery runs at 92.5% suggest demand resilience despite this week’s 3.96% WTI selloff.

European buyers monitor the widening Brent-WTI spread as arbitrage economics deteriorate—the $12.16 gap tests the upper bound of its 3-month range, incentivizing US crude exports but pressuring regional refining margins. Brent’s pivot at $96.17 (PP) holds as immediate support while WTI battles its $89.46 pivot, with RSI divergence hinting at consolidation. The session’s key test comes at 14:30 CET with NYMEX open—liquidity flows may amplify moves given WTI’s oversold conditions and Brent’s geopolitical bid. Resistance clusters loom at $108.15 (WTI R1) and $117.04 (Brent R1), though downside risks persist if US production sustains near 13.95 mb/d and backwardation flattens. For now, the market balances chokepoint anxieties against technical exhaustion, leaving both benchmarks rangebound ahead of American participation.