Forex Update: Geopolitical Tensions Rise, USD/JPY Advances
📰 Forex and Global Market News
**Market Overview:**
Today’s forex market exhibited notable movements, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. economic data. The focus remains on the impact of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil giants, which have heightened concerns about global energy supply and inflationary pressures.
**Key Currency Movements:**
The U.S. Dollar (USD) is trading at 99.05 (-0.0262%), reflecting a slight easing as traders brace for critical inflation data due tomorrow. The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded against the USD, buoyed by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held steady below 0.5750 as market participants remain cautious ahead of delayed inflation figures. The Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP) showed mixed performance, largely influenced by regional economic indicators.
**Central Bank Insights and Economic Data:**
With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance closely watched, the upcoming CPI release is expected to guide future monetary policy. The recent sanctions on Russia have also sparked discussions about potential inflationary impacts, further complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
**Commodity Price Impacts:**
Gold prices rose as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties, climbing above $4,100. Oil prices surged over 3% following the U.S. sanctions, with WTI exceeding $60, reflecting supply concerns that could ripple through the global economy.
In summary, the forex market remains volatile,
📅 Economic Calendar Events Today
All times are in US Eastern Time (ET)
| Date | Time | Cur | Imp | Event | Actual | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-23 | 01:00 | Medium | Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
| 2025-10-23 | 01:00 | Medium | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 0.7% | 0.6% | |
| 2025-10-23 | 03:25 | 🇨🇭 | Medium | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 08:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,930K | |
| 2025-10-23 | 08:30 | 🇺🇸 | High | Initial Jobless Claims | 223K | |
| 2025-10-23 | 08:30 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 1.3% | |
| 2025-10-23 | 08:30 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 1.0% | |
| 2025-10-23 | 08:30 | 🇨🇦 | Medium | Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 09:30 | 🇪🇺 | Medium | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | High | Existing Home Sales (Sep) | 4.06M | |
| 2025-10-23 | 10:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 10:25 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 13:00 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | 5-Year TIPS Auction | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 16:30 | 🇺🇸 | Medium | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 19:30 | 🇯🇵 | Medium | National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.9% | |
| 2025-10-23 | 19:30 | 🇯🇵 | Medium | National CPI (MoM) (Sep) | ||
| 2025-10-23 | 20:30 | 🇯🇵 | Medium | au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Oct) |
**Overview:**
Today’s economic calendar features several high-impact events, particularly from Singapore, the U.S., and Japan, which could significantly influence forex markets. Traders should pay close attention to inflation data, employment figures, and central bank communications.
**Key Releases:**
1. **Singapore (01:00 ET)**: Core CPI (YoY) for September came in at **0.40%**, surpassing the forecast of **0.20%**, indicating stronger inflation pressures. Overall CPI also exceeded expectations at **0.7%** vs. **0.6%** forecast.
2. **U.S. (08:30 ET)**: Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated at **223K**. Continuing claims are expected at **1,930K**. These figures will provide insight into the labor market’s health.
3. **Canada (08:30 ET)**: Retail Sales (MoM) for August are forecasted at **1.0%**, with Core Retail Sales expected at **1.3%**. Strong results could bolster the CAD.
4. **Japan (19:30 ET)**: National Core CPI (YoY) is expected at **2.9%**, reflecting ongoing inflationary trends.
**FX Impact:**
The SGD is likely to strengthen against major pairs following the positive inflation data. The USD may experience volatility depending on jobless claims results, impacting pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CAD. A strong CAD retail sales figure could lead to a bullish outlook for CAD pairs. Overall, traders should be prepared for potential market reactions based on these releases.
💱 Major Currency Pairs
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD – Euro / U.S. Dollar | EURUSD | 1.1598 | -0.1378 | -0.8684 | -0.4149 | -1.7209 | -1.3451 | +1.9882 | +11.45 | +7.4160 | 1.1690 | 1.1659 | 1.1266 | 36.34 | -0.0025 |
| USD/JPY – U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen | USDJPY | 152.45 | +0.3674 | +1.5534 | +0.9790 | +3.1999 | +3.7053 | +6.7001 | -2.8937 | +0.8694 | 148.78 | 147.52 | 147.98 | 72.10 | 0.9287 |
| GBP/USD – British Pound / U.S. Dollar | GBPUSD | 1.3351 | -0.0374 | -0.7033 | -0.3989 | -1.2133 | -1.1772 | +0.1859 | +6.3901 | +2.8361 | 1.3467 | 1.3487 | 1.3206 | 40.63 | -0.0028 |
| USD/CHF – U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc | USDCHF | 0.7975 | +0.2010 | +0.7161 | +0.1193 | +0.6449 | +0.3309 | -3.7696 | -11.71 | -7.8599 | 0.7990 | 0.8019 | 0.8347 | 50.64 | -0.0006 |
| AUD/USD – Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar | AUDUSD | 0.6508 | +0.2619 | +0.3949 | -0.0000 | -1.4238 | -1.3517 | +1.6322 | +4.6302 | -2.6622 | 0.6553 | 0.6538 | 0.6432 | 35.28 | -0.0022 |
| USD/CAD – U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar | USDCAD | 1.3992 | +0.0214 | -0.3845 | -0.3845 | +1.2087 | +2.5761 | +0.9670 | -2.4934 | +1.2724 | 1.3882 | 1.3788 | 1.3967 | 56.20 | 0.0046 |
| NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar | NZDUSD | 0.5747 | +0.1220 | +0.3489 | +0.5403 | -2.0754 | -4.8055 | -4.0245 | +1.9024 | -4.9423 | 0.5844 | 0.5922 | 0.5852 | 30.27 | -0.0036 |
**Overview:**
The Majors FX group is currently exhibiting mixed trends, with some pairs showing bullish momentum while others remain under bearish pressure. The overall sentiment leans towards a cautious bullish outlook, particularly with the USD showing strength against certain currencies.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/JPY**: This pair is displaying strong bullish momentum, with an RSI of 72.10 indicating overbought conditions. The MACD is positive at 0.9287, suggesting sustained upward momentum. Traders should watch for potential resistance near 153.00.
2. **EUR/USD**: The Euro is under bearish pressure, with an RSI of 36.34 indicating oversold conditions. The MACD is negative at -0.0025, confirming the downtrend. Key support is seen around 1.1550, which could provide a buying opportunity if tested.
3. **USD/CAD**: This pair shows a neutral-bullish stance with an RSI of 56.20 and a positive MACD at 0.0046. Traders may look for a breakout above 1.4000 for a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
**Trading Implications:**
For USD/JPY, consider long positions near current levels with a stop-loss below
🔀 Cross Currency Pairs
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | EURGBP | 0.8685 | -0.1035 | -0.1862 | -0.0334 | -0.5269 | -0.1954 | +1.7873 | +4.7408 | +4.4347 | 0.8679 | 0.8644 | 0.8528 | 41.05 | -0.0001 |
| EUR/JPY | EURJPY | 176.76 | +0.2041 | +0.6411 | +0.5329 | +1.3922 | +2.2846 | +8.7977 | +8.1831 | +8.3197 | 173.82 | 171.84 | 166.53 | 71.91 | 0.6735 |
| EUR/CHF | EURCHF | 0.9243 | +0.0108 | -0.2213 | -0.3590 | -1.1497 | -1.0820 | -1.9154 | -1.6597 | -1.0883 | 0.9339 | 0.9348 | 0.9384 | 19.73 | -0.0027 |
| EUR/AUD | EURAUD | 1.7819 | -0.4080 | -1.2617 | -0.4258 | -0.3244 | -0.0213 | +0.3062 | +6.4965 | +10.33 | 1.7839 | 1.7832 | 1.7509 | 52.45 | 0.0020 |
| GBP/JPY | GBPJPY | 203.51 | +0.3090 | +0.8269 | +0.5668 | +1.9375 | +2.4775 | +6.8884 | +3.3036 | +3.7190 | 200.35 | 198.95 | 195.31 | 70.89 | 0.8313 |
| GBP/CHF | GBPCHF | 1.0647 | +0.1788 | +0.0113 | -0.2744 | -0.5604 | -0.8456 | -3.5895 | -6.0573 | -5.2429 | 1.0759 | 1.0815 | 1.1006 | 36.03 | -0.0030 |
| AUD/JPY | AUDJPY | 99.18 | +0.6035 | +1.9238 | +0.9568 | +1.7147 | +2.2991 | +8.4622 | +1.5949 | -1.8059 | 97.48 | 96.43 | 95.14 | 61.16 | 0.2798 |
| AUD/NZD | AUDNZD | 1.1323 | +0.1326 | +0.0371 | -0.5393 | +0.6793 | +3.6468 | +5.9393 | +2.6848 | +2.4187 | 1.1214 | 1.1041 | 1.0992 | 48.28 | 0.0032 |
| CHF/JPY | CHFJPY | 191.12 | +0.1525 | +0.8206 | +0.8581 | +2.5267 | +3.3580 | +10.88 | +9.9692 | +9.4580 | 186.20 | 183.95 | 177.56 | 86.74 | 1.2992 |
| NZD/JPY | NZDJPY | 87.57 | +0.4854 | +1.8848 | +1.4963 | +1.0512 | -1.3018 | +2.3803 | -1.0765 | -4.1263 | 86.91 | 87.33 | 86.54 | 64.47 | -0.0007 |
**Overview:** The Crosses FX group exhibits a mixed trend, with bullish momentum in select pairs while others show bearish signals. Notably, the overall sentiment leans towards a cautious bullish outlook, driven by a few strong performers.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **CHF/JPY:** With a price of 191.1220, RSI at 86.74 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a price correction. The MACD at 1.2992 confirms strong bullish momentum, but traders should watch for reversals.
2. **EUR/JPY:** Priced at 176.7560, it shows an RSI of 71.91, also in overbought territory. The MACD at 0.6735 supports bullish momentum, yet caution is warranted as it approaches overbought levels.
3. **GBP/JPY:** At 203.5070, the RSI of 70.89 indicates overbought conditions, with MACD at 0.8313 reinforcing bullish momentum.
**Trading
🌍 Exotic and Emerging Market Currencies
| Name | Symbol | Price | Daily (%) | 5D (%) | 1W (%) | 1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | YTD (%) | 12M (%) | MA50 | MA100 | MA200 | RSI | MACD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY – U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira | USDTRY | 41.98 | +0.0522 | +0.2005 | +0.3085 | +1.4215 | +3.5630 | +9.2810 | +18.91 | +22.56 | 41.41 | 40.74 | 39.07 | 96.78 | 0.1687 |
| USD/ZAR – U.S. Dollar / South African Rand | USDZAR | 17.38 | -0.1614 | +0.2598 | +0.2041 | +0.2862 | -1.3206 | -7.3006 | -7.3776 | -0.8177 | 17.43 | 17.60 | 17.99 | 55.22 | -0.0176 |
| USD/THB – U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht | USDTHB | 32.77 | +0.0305 | +0.8308 | +0.7378 | +3.2126 | +1.5180 | -1.8568 | -4.0101 | -2.2083 | 32.29 | 32.38 | 32.99 | 60.25 | 0.1493 |
| USD/SEK – U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona | USDSEK | 9.4107 | +0.0670 | -0.0524 | -0.6245 | +0.5702 | -1.2173 | -2.1472 | -14.63 | -10.73 | 9.4354 | 9.5048 | 9.8519 | 52.16 | 0.0042 |
| USD/NOK – U.S. Dollar / Norwegian Krone | USDNOK | 9.9995 | -0.1219 | -0.5846 | -0.9538 | +0.8940 | -1.1852 | -4.0245 | -11.72 | -8.4437 | 10.02 | 10.07 | 10.41 | 64.33 | 0.0245 |
| USD/DKK – U.S. Dollar / Danish Krone | USDDKK | 6.4409 | +0.1524 | +0.9008 | +0.4401 | +1.8300 | +1.4411 | -1.8994 | -10.13 | -6.7428 | 6.3850 | 6.4030 | 6.6404 | 64.71 | 0.0136 |
| USD/MXN – U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso | USDMXN | 18.42 | -0.0900 | -0.0537 | -0.1880 | +0.3416 | -0.6373 | -6.0184 | -10.72 | -7.6033 | 18.52 | 18.65 | 19.37 | 50.56 | -0.0173 |
| USD/PLN – U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty | USDPLN | 3.6512 | +0.2113 | +0.6203 | +0.0112 | +1.2698 | +0.9623 | -2.7299 | -11.10 | -8.7878 | 3.6387 | 3.6512 | 3.7693 | 57.37 | 0.0038 |
| USD/HUF – U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint | USDHUF | 336.44 | +0.4922 | +1.0100 | +0.3816 | +2.0684 | -0.4415 | -5.7462 | -14.83 | -9.2156 | 335.23 | 339.41 | 355.59 | 62.05 | 0.2241 |
| USD/CZK – U.S. Dollar / Czech Koruna | USDCZK | 20.97 | +0.2774 | +1.0853 | +0.6819 | +2.1367 | +0.5197 | -4.3871 | -13.21 | -10.15 | 20.83 | 21.01 | 22.02 | 63.76 | 0.0327 |
**Overview:**
The Exotic FX group shows mixed signals, with a general bullish trend led by USD/TRY, while other pairs exhibit neutral to bearish momentum.
**Key Pairs:**
1. **USD/TRY:** Currently at 41.9803, this pair is significantly overbought (RSI 96.78) and shows bullish momentum (MACD 0.1687). Caution is advised as a correction may be imminent.
2. **USD/HUF:** Priced at 336.4380, it has a bullish RSI of 62.05 and a strong MACD (0.2241), indicating potential for continued upward movement.
3. **USD/ZAR:** Trading at 17.3805, this pair is neutral-bearish with an RSI of 55.22 and a negative MACD (-0.0176), suggesting weakening momentum.
**Trading Implications:**
For USD/TRY, watch for resistance around 42.50. Support is at 40.50. USD
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