Asian Session Crude Oil Report — 07 Oct 2026

WTI crude hovers near $90.86 in early Asian trading as the contract struggles to regain momentum after testing seven-day lows, while Brent finds firmer footing at $103.02 with a modest 0.75% overnight uptick. The Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16 as Atlantic Basin tightness supports European benchmarks. Both contracts trade below their respective 9-day EMAs—WTI at $92.34 and Brent at $103.07—with the American benchmark showing greater technical strain as its RSI plunges to oversold territory at 22.5 versus Brent’s 38.9.

The technical landscape reveals diverging pressures. WTI faces immediate resistance at the $89.46 pivot point, having breached its 50-day EMA support at $90.23, while Brent rides its 50-day EMA at $97.21 higher. Backwardation steepens across both curves—WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 spread now at -10.8%, Brent’s at -14.6%—as prompt supply concerns outweigh longer-dated contract weakness. Asian refiners absorb the elevated Brent structure, with South Korean and Indian import demand holding firm despite Brent’s $6 premium to Dubai swaps.

Geopolitical tensions inject volatility into the session. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated as IRGC naval units intercept commercial tankers near the Strait, threatening 20% of global seaborne flows. VLCCs continue rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Bab-el-Mandeb’s Houthi threats, adding seven days to Europe-Asia voyages. OPEC+ discipline tightens the physical market—the group’s 26.8 mb/d output falls 0.6 mb/d short of call—with Saudi Arabia maintaining full compliance while Russia leaks an additional 120 kb/d beyond quotas.

The EIA’s latest report shows US commercial stocks building marginally to 427.3 mb, though Cushing inventories at 24.3 mb keep Midland differentials firm. Refinery runs at 92.5% capacity signal robust autumn demand, countering bearish sentiment from a 13.95 mb/d domestic production rate. Asian traders eye Chinese Golden Week refinery restarts, with independent teapots expected to boost runs by 400 kb/d post-holiday.

European session watchpoints include the $89.46 WTI pivot holding as make-or-break support, while Brent must defend its 21-day EMA at $101.63. Any escalation in Hormuz tanker interdictions or Bab-el-Mandeb attacks could trigger another risk premium spike. The backwardation structure warrants monitoring—any flattening may signal weakening prompt demand. Gasoil cracks near $38/bbl suggest distillate strength persists, potentially dragging crude higher into the London open.