European Session Crude Oil Report — 08 Oct 2026

Crude oil markets edge lower in European trading as WTI tests the $90.50 support level while Brent struggles to hold above $103, with the Brent-WTI spread tightening to $12.16 as European refiners weigh heavy Atlantic Basin supply against Middle East volatility. The Asian session leaves a muted footprint—WTI drifts within a narrow $90.20–$91.30 range overnight as Brent sees fleeting bids near $102.80 before London open. Momentum remains bearish for WTI with RSI(14) deeply oversold at 22.5, while Brent’s RSI at 38.9 hints at tentative stabilization. Both benchmarks trade below their 9-day EMAs, though Brent’s proximity to its 21-day EMA ($101.63) suggests relative resilience.

Technicals paint a divergent picture. WTI’s failure to reclaim its pivot point ($89.46) signals vulnerability, with the next downside target at S1 ($72.17) if the $90 psychological level breaks. Brent, however, finds interim support at PP ($96.17), with its steeper backwardation (-14.6% for Jul27 vs Oct26) reflecting tighter physical balances. The term structure divergence underscores Atlantic Basin oversupply—WTI’s backwardation (-10.8%) narrows as Cushing inventories creep higher (24.3 mb), while Brent draws strength from disrupted Middle East flows. The Brent-WTI spread remains a focal point for European refiners, with sub-$12 levels likely to revive WTI arbitrage economics.

Geopolitical tensions simmer under the surface. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated as IRGC naval activity disrupts tanker traffic, threatening 20M bbl/d of flows. Bab-el-Mandeb risks linger—Houthi attacks force VLCCs to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 7 days to voyages and tightening available tonnage. Meanwhile, OPEC+ discipline shows cracks: Iraq and Russia exceed quotas marginally, though Saudi compliance anchors the group’s 0.6 mb/d supply deficit against call-on-OPEC demand. The EIA’s latest data reveals stagnant US production (13.95 mb/d) and refinery runs holding at 92.5%, leaving little slack to absorb further disruptions.

The NYMEX open looms as the session’s key catalyst, with traders eyeing whether WTI can defend $90 amid weak technicals. Brent’s ability to sustain above $103 hinges on Middle East tensions offsetting bearish inventory dynamics. For European players, the Brent-WTI spread’s compression below $12 may prompt feedstock adjustments, particularly if backwardation steepens further. Immediate resistance sits at $91.30 (WTI) and $103.50 (Brent), though rallies face stiff pressure from algorithmic sellers targeting EMA crossovers. Downside risks intensify if WTI breaches $89.46—a move that could trigger stop-losses toward $87. The session’s tone hinges on whether physical tightness in Brent can outweigh WTI’s speculative unwind.